Monday, July 25, 2016

Throw in the kitchen sink

Ending-diagonals, Bradley turns, expanding-wedge megaphone tops, GDP releases, grinding down the shorts, 1-4 overlap in a terminal move, an October crash, the works, everything!

SPX 07-25

Notice how the wave 4 takes another 6 weeks to play out.  Better to log off and go hiking.

Sunday, July 24, 2016

Has the 10Y yield bottomed?

The long-term chart shows an RSI divergence on the recent lows.

Maybe we will learn a bit more on this in the upcoming week.

^TNX monthly

Quite the megaphone

Can we make it all the way to 2215 on the S&P 500 by Wednesday?

The Fed will have no choice but to hike the rates on the loans and the interests, you know.

SPX megaphone

Thursday, July 21, 2016

More charts until we know next week

Just keep cranking them out like 500 million DM notes in the 1923.

It's always Weimar at my house
SPX 07-21
SPX Götterdämmerung

Wednesday, July 20, 2016

It looks like it's up to FOMC again

Markets are at crazy new all-time highs, and the Fed does not want to get mixed-up in election year politics.  That makes next week a likely time for the Fed to surprise us pleasantly with its long-awaited follow-up rate hike.  

If the S&P 500 is above the 2,200 level, how can they not hike?  It would be indefensible.

Up to now, the impulses south on the charts have all been impulsive C waves of various corrections.  But they have given us important clues in terms of the slope and violence of these declines.  A real impulse wave down will be longer and more sustained.  The C wave in this series will return us to the 800 level on the S&P 500.

UVXY will have its reverse-split next Monday, I believe, followed by a couple sessions of pain as it sheds roughly another third of its real value from where it closed today.

Keep trapped shorts in your prayers.  They have another week in purgatory.  I'll be interested in August week 4 SPY puts as we head into the next Fed meeting

SPX 07-20

Friday, July 15, 2016

Or an extended 5th wave?

Bearish wedge.  Note the .382 retrace to 2074 SPX marked wave 4.

SPX 07-15 a.m.

Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Or even this?

With a megaphone 5th wave, very close to completion now.

SPX 07-13

Monday, July 11, 2016

Charts 7-11: A new high and a proposed terminal wave structure

Today finally gave us the new highs, on the news that the Japan is saved.  What a fine thing.

we're doomed if we don't pull this off, you know

If we're drawing a terminal move, it could be an ending-diagonal, or an expanding wedge.  Legs of the move can be triplets, and we'd really love it if it showed its internal weakness by overlapping waves 1 and 4 of the series.  So maybe the expanding wedge top like so, with overlap around 2108 SPX:

SPX 07-11

Sunday, July 10, 2016

An autumn crash modeled on Bradley turn dates and GDP releases

It's taken all this time this year to inch our way up back to breaking the May, 2015, market highs, and it looks like we are finally within striking distance.  I'm looking for a final high in the 2140-2150 range over the next week and a half, possibly reversing after July op-ex.

Is Donald Trump the Gray Champion?

The Austrian Manfred Zimmel has calculated a significant "Bradley" model astro turn date on 7/19, right after op-ex, and if you have any interest in this stuff, here is his work for 2016:

2016 Bradley model turns, Manfred Zimmel

You could use the four dates from July through October to model a serious crisis and market crash through the fall, keying off these dates, Full Moons, and USA GDP releases.  It might look like this.

SPX 1Y Fall crash based on Bradleys

At the ~800 SPX level we have a surprise long-term trendline coming up from the late 1980s, before the domestic credit expansion, financialization, and globalization of credit really took off.  It's also near the 2003 market lows.

SPX long-term support?

Helicopter money drops then save the world once more, until what's left of Bretton Woods breaks down and the sun sets on the $USD as world reserve.  The debts matter, they cannot possibly be paid, so default and collapse are inevitable.

Of course, no matter what happens, you should always buy Seattle residential real-estate, and then buy some more, because this run will never, ever end.

Seen in the last cycle

Hang in there, getting rough out there these days.

Saturday, July 2, 2016

It sure looks like we are approaching a turn

Posting a handful of charts on the S&P, bonds, and gold.  All of them have patterns nearing completion that portent something big in the works, very soon, IMO.

Watching for the S&P to rally and fail at 2125 on Tuesday, put up a key reversal daily candle.  I haven't checked on Hindenburg Omens in a while -- were there any in the run-up to the Brexit headfake?  Maybe we will look for them again on any bounce off the 1740 area, once we get there, leading to the big Fall swoon.

SPX 60D broadening top
SPX back to 1040 this Fall
TLT completing a big move