Friday, August 7, 2020

Stimulus, please!

I'm going to be out in the bush next week, but the pols ought to settle their differences soon enough and write some more checks from the Future.

The middle of the channel is about 3,580 into the DNC and the August VIX futures expiration, as good a place as any to stop and reconsider.

Hey Google, the updated Blogger editor is a complete piece of garbage.  It barely works and is buggy and highly unpleasant.  What a waste.  Pull the old branch and throw this away.

Tuesday, July 28, 2020

If we lose this channel

Where do we go next?

Chicago 1979

Here's the channel; we closed outside it today, with a Fed meeting tomorrow to keep things interesting.

S&P 500 hourly, LOG scale

Once we are back inside the giant pink megaphone, I don't think it will take much to trip us up and drop us back to 2140 on the S&P 500 for 1 of C down.

S&P 500 suggesting C is close

3 of C is a September-October affair, targeting the 1000 level, kicking off right after Labor Day.

Thursday, June 4, 2020

Halfway home

We are right at the midpoint in time from where equities first rolled over at the all-time highs, to the September FOMC where I am proposing that the Fed will announce its direct support via purchases of $SPY.

It is a very exciting moment, if a 5-wave C impulse lower is due.

SPX C down, log indexes
SPX C down, linear

Thursday, May 14, 2020

Has C down begun?

For the next eleven weeks, equity markets will be in a dialogue with the monetary policy gods who now run our entire world, over the question of direct support, as in Japan.

Market crashes proceed in three waves -- ABC.  The question now is whether "A" and "B" are in, and we are beginning a destructive 5-wave impulse "C" to new lows.

Channel break?  A plausible "B" wave triplet complete?

S&P 500 hourly + channel break OMG

Let us propose this scenario:

  1. "C" down has begun, selling into EOM, support ~2075 from prior lows
  2. Bounce into June FOMC is on "hope" that the Fed will buy equities - 2460?
  3. Fed declines to buy equities
  4. A real market crash to ~1040 S&P after June FOMC, 3 of "C"
  5. Late June to July opex on EOQ2 fund rebalancing and new "hope"
  6. By late July CMBS, CLOs, RRE all imploding, market follows down
  7. Shocking new historic lows - 520 on the S&P 500?
  8. Fed announces direct purchases of $SPY, $QQQ at the EOM July meeting
  10. MMT and start of the final collapse of global credit monetary system

S&P 500 hourly "C" wave to 520

Good luck to all friendlies.