Run the trendline up from 666 through the 1810 low on a log10 daily chart. Q4 2018 is "A" down on our count, and we are finishing up "B".
|SPX daily, long-term rally channel|
When "B" completes, we will lose the rally channel and sell off again, to support at the trendline from prior lows, roughly 2280 by May opex:
|Support from prior lows|
"C" is a massive 5-wave impulse, with each leg lower ending on a Fed meeting, with promises of free stuff given out each time.
|SPX daily, 5-wave impulse lower|
The Fed then cuts rates at the September FOMC when we are right at urgent support, the bottom of the long-term channel, 1387 on the S&P 500.
This rate cut will stanch the bleeding, and -- maybe -- get us through the 2020 election, on the next cycle B-wave. If we break down and out of the long-term channel, policy has failed and we are now in deflationary depression hell, complete with cascading debt-defaults and an S&P 500 of 500.
We've got through EOQ1 before the current B wave retrace equals "A" down from 2018 in time. April would be a 20% decline in equities.