Saturday, October 17, 2020

Black swan alert

It appears that the Biden campaign is about to implode, and take the Democratic Party with it.  

Gee, that's too bad.

I guess we'll know if The Market takes this seriously if the /ES goes limit-down Sunday night.  If it does, then I expect it to close 10% down at the 200DMA and burn 40% on the week.

If you've been in a coma or off smoking crystal with Hunter Biden, I'll let Rudy catch you up.

/pol/ seems to be a good place for timely coverage as well.  And, of course, there is Alex Jones.

Donald Trump has just racked up another superlative!  Best October Surprise ever ...

Thursday, October 8, 2020

Tomorrow rather important

It looks like we finally retest the underside of the rally channel up from the March lows tomorrow.  Madame Speaker Pelosi (D, CA) has a press conference early in the session, and I'm excited to see what news she has to share. 

This fellow has an interesting analogue to the 1987 crash.  Make of it what you will.

I guess this would presage a dive into the election, followed by a Trump win and a monster bounce.  But reality will maul us by the All-Star Game.

Such fun in 2021

Tuesday, September 22, 2020

Insanely dangerous tape

 The whole idea and effort to predict emergent characteristics from a complex system -- prices! -- is hard and sketchy enough.  I think it's fooling everyone atm, but it is actually struggling to stay afloat.

I think the tape is hiding the very real dangers from us, we're so complacent now, no one has any idea just how close we are to a market event.  Does Pelosi break off stimulus negotiations with the Administration?  Will that be our spark, or a surprise piece of macro data?  There is massive EOQ rotation ahead -- forced selling, lads. 

SPX hourly

You can see on the daily that we are kissing-back the old rally channel.  Well ... good-bye to you.

SPX daily


Monday, September 21, 2020

Danger is here

It looks like we're just getting started with a big, hairy C wave down to the depths -- how low will it go?  Once we test and lose the 200 DMA, it ought to accelerate and get very frightening in the short-term.


SPX RTH 1-hour

So let's go visit the 200 DMA, like, tomorrow.

/ES 1-hour

Big picture, first job is to cross the megaphone at breakneck speed.  Volatility looks completely confused at this point as OTM calls are rolling off and I'm not sure if anyone is hedging, because "correction".  

Good luck with that.

SPX 1-hour Sturm und Drang