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Deflation Land
Sic transit gloria mundi
Thursday, December 17, 2020
AdBlock custom settings for Zero Hedge
Tuesday, December 15, 2020
DIA report pending
Thursday, November 19, 2020
Now we cross the rally channel
Support is at about 2960 on the low edge of the rally channel, at the Full Moon at the end of November.
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1970s State Street, Chicago |
The next panic phase comes around the December 8th "Safe Harbor" deadline, ending when the Fed meets mid-month and is friendly again. Trump will win; actually, he already has.
Q1 2021 is an epic disaster as all the idled mortgages and rents are due again, and the can can't be kicked. We can easily reach a 3-digit S&P 500 by the end of February.
S&P 500 crossing the megaphone |
Monday, November 9, 2020
Worst-case scenario
The worst-case scenario for the equity markets is a full-blown Constitutional crisis, keying off the Electoral College meeting 14 December. It is a real crisis, sure, made exponentially worse by all the leverage and insolvency loosed upon the world.
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Titanic vs modern cruise liner |
This will only end when the Fed announces ambitious monetization and purchases of index ETFs at the January FOMC.
IMO this is the severe but brief deflationary shock that everyone on Real Vision expects to happen one of these days. But who will catch it?
S&P 500 worst-case |