Friday, November 14, 2014

Nothingburger week

Like I said before market open Tuesday morning, we're just marking time up here, waiting for the Bollingers on the daily SPX, VIX, and vol ETFs to come in and give us something to push against.  Pull up any daily chart with a BB overlay, and you'll see them tightening up from above and below.

For a brief moment this week I wondered if we might pop up over the top of the megaphone to the 2080s SPX, but it held.  Bears then got their only real play this week, 16 handles from 2046 back to 2030, but only if they were smart enough to exit.  Puts held since then are bleeding theta daily.

See you next week, hopefully for a violent reaction off 2050 SPX.

FEMA Camp Sol Duc (ONP)
North Cascades bivy at 7600'

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Bollingers have got to come in

IMO, no lasting top possible here until the 2SD Bollinger Bands on the dailies come in quite a ways.

Eeek -- the lower BB for UVXY now has a 15-handle, although this one, too, ought to come in a little.  Careful with this one -- she's a man-eater!

Re the 11/20 "major" Bradley turn, please note that the FOMC minutes go out just the day before, and that that Thursday is a huge data-dump day.  Oh, Bradleys are voodoo?  Yeah, probably, but the last one was a direct hit -- October 16th.

SPX 11-10
VIX 11-10

Thursday, November 6, 2014

SPX almost there

The S&P 500 is now a short distance from tagging the top of its broadening-top megaphone at 2040 to 2042 SPX.  This would be a great place to close tomorrow, before a plunge to 1750.  A wave 1-2 combination into November opex would still eat most of the bearish SPY puts from 195 on down.  And after opex, well, the hedges are off, aren't they?

SPX 11-06

The Dow has already exceeded the upper bound of its megaphone.

DJIA 11-06

UVXY is showing a bullish wedge nearing completion.

UVXY 11-06

While the McClellan Oscillator had another tiny change today, telling us that pressure is building here.

McClellan 11-06

Things about to get exciting again soon?

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Charts 11-04: Fear off again

I actually began the day all loaded-up short in case we reversed and crumbled, but I exited everything nicely when I noticed that UVXY wasn't too worried about the early tape.  What a fantastic ETF, what a great barometer for fear or, today, for market complacency.

UVXY flipped red today while the S&P 500 was still negative 5 or 6 pts, a sure sign that we were not about to break down.  No, not yet.

Looking ahead to the 11/20 Bradley turn window to finish up the megaphone.  It looks about right.  Take a look at the November options open-interest for puts on the SPY; there are huge piles of Novembers outstanding that this market wants to eat up.  The options sellers will need the money from these profits soon enough.

SPX 11-04

A December 26th Bradley turn date suggests an EOY sell-off that gets out of hand.  It could even mean impeachment hearings for our fake POTUS.  Remember, all we need is for some disgruntled former supporter of this guy to leak old financial-aid papers from Columbia out to the Press, and we may find ourselves in a full-blown Constitutional crisis overnight.

Congrats to the Republicans.  It won't make any difference with respect to the long-term credit cycle (Kondratieff waves) and the end of the 20th Century, but it will at least piss off a lot of liberals and the FSA in this country.  And that's something worth celebrating.