Sunday, October 19, 2014

Eerie similarity between the 2007 top and now

Posting this chart again, just to drive the point home.

A false break of the 200 DMA, followed by one last high ...

2007 top and today

My daughter and I saw two river otters out in Puget Sound on our walk this morning.  Then I went completely Hobbesian on a couple of Seattle idiots whose filthy unleashed dogs came over to visit us.

"Oh, but they're nice dogs."

And yet I will kill your dog if it bites my kid.  Right here on the beach.

This sort of primordial psychotic intensity scares the living hell out of your average passive-aggressive New York Times-home-delivery wussy Seattle people.  It's great fun, it should be a sport, really.

Saturday, October 18, 2014

Charts 10-17: Breakout ahead

But which way?

Friday's tape and close left us just about where I thought it would the other day.

You can see it even better in the trendlines on this chart.  What a meat-grinder.  One of them has to break.

SPX 10-17

I think new highs are possible if the bulls can spark a short-covering panic brushfire this week, starting with a taste of trading above 1900 SPX.

This isn't his call, but this week we tripped one of Dr. Bob McHugh's favorite tactical technical signals, the "VIX buy" signal.  This is where the VIX closes outside of its 2SD Bollinger Band, and then back inside, indicating a "buy" across all of the indices.

We shall see ... we shall see ...

Edit: chart for Permabear Doomster, our man in the London.

SPX 10Y

Actually, I think this last chart should give any short-term bear some serious pause.  Whoa!