Monday, July 21, 2014

Charts 07-21 a.m.: Outlook unchanged

Haven't posted in a while, because my analysis is unchanged.  I still want to see SPX 1925 this week for point "24" on the green 3PDH, and then a rally into July FOMC and the next GDP number.

Good luck to all (bears).  I sketched this at EOD Friday.

SPX 07-18

Tuesday, July 8, 2014

Chart 07-08: Gott mit uns

The mighty German victory today in the World Cup semifinal actually foreshadows the future of the BRICs -- sneaky how the financiers pull this off -- but tonight we can cheer them for a fine show of sport.  I'd like to see them face their neighbors, those serious guys in orange.

It's all a clever dress rehearsal for the end of the USA-UK financial domination of the ROW, a long cycle that has run its course.

We wish both the Germans and the Dutch well in the days ahead.

Last week I made a final visit to Wessel & Lieberman books in Pioneer Square to pick up the ed of Rousseau I have had on my mind for a long time.  It's gorgeous of course, and now safe here with me.

J-J Rousseau Confessions, 1928 Brentano ed, tr. Mallory 

They are shutting down and are liquidating the remaining books, including their online store.  They will be missed.

I found a particularly nice solid wood bookcase at the Value Village thrift store in my neighborhood, a real score for a mere $20.  A $3 coupon from an item donation made it even cheaper.  I stocked it with a slew of good children's books, particularly heavy in the Grosset & Dunlap.

Children's library of classics and sci-fi

This is part of a much larger library of books to get my kids through their teenage years.  They are just now starting to understand how this is theirs to explore and enjoy, what a fine thing it is to be surrounded by books.  They get it.

In the markets, at this point we are just on-hold, waiting for the Bradley model turn date next week.  The current channel in SPX should take us up somewhere between 1990 and 2000 -- they simply have to take a shot at it, right?

SPX 07-08

There are plenty of data out next week, including (for what it's worth) Chinese GDP and industrial data, and, of course, U.S. earnings soon.

I'm still on-board for the "double-nested Three Peaks and a Domed House" model.  One theory I am proposing with these charts is that -- finally -- FOMC releases may start being profoundly market-negative events, as continued tapering and eventually a rate hike (April 2015?) do their work.

SPX 07-08 1Y

After January, a relief rally into the end of April.

SPX 07-08 5Y

UVXY bottoms around $20 next week?

UVXY 07-08 6M

Nothing much to do IMO until we are closer to the turn, complete a wave up, and maybe even make that low on the VIX and her ETFs.

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

Charts 06-17: Count for a 7/16 top

This would be an ending-diagonal ending with a final move towards SPX 2000 into the 7/16 major Bradley turn.  It would first get a bit more downside from tomorrow's FOMC than I think most are expecting.  That lower trendline needs to hold for a final move up.

SPX 06-17

Note also that the first move at the top may bounce off the 200 DMA. We need to do that before we go any further.  GLTA ...