Saturday, July 7, 2018

Book thread -- what's on my shelves?

Summer reading time.  What's on my shelves?

I'm just crazy about this cool one-volume edition of Spengler printed by George Allen & Unwin in 1934, which I ordered from a bookshop in Brighton, UK.  How I love this press.

Oswald Spengler, The Decline of the West,
London: George Allen & Unwin, 1934

You should use a 500 million DM Weimar note as your bookmark when you read von Mises.

Ludwig von Mises, The Theory of Money and Credit,
New Haven: Yale UP, 4th printing, 1963

I'm reading this cover-to-cover at the moment.  Volume 2 has always been good for its tales of the camps and the White Sea Canal, but you really need to read all of Gulag to understand our enemies.  I found this at a thrift store on Mercer Island, WA, for $10.

Aleksandr I. Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago,
New York: Harper & Row, 1974, 1st ed


Goethe, Works: Gottingen Edition, New York: W. I. Squire, 1901

und Schiller

Friedrich Schiller, Werke in vier bänden,
Hamburg: Hoffman und Campe, 1957

John Stuart Mill, Principles of Political Economy, New York: Appleton, 1868

Talcott Parsons, The Social System, Glencoe: The Free Press, 1951 1st printing

Devereux Bowly, Jr, The Poorhouse: Subsidized Housing in Chicago,
1985-1976, Carbondale: Southern Illinois UP, 1978

Arnold R. Hirsch, Making the Second Ghetto: Race & Housing in Chicago,
, London: Cambridge UP,, 1983

Count Eric Oxenstierna, The Norsemen, New York,
NY Graphic Society, 1965

Ending-diagonal 5th wave finishes up EOM July

It looks like we can close the gap on the S&P 500 right into the first US GDP release at EOM July.

If w4 of the ending-diagonal ended at ~2692 on the S&P, the minor w5 will equal the w1 and fill the chart gap up around 2856.  Then we can begin our trip back to real support at the 1810 level this fall.

S&P 500 daily


Adding an alt in case the larger W4 did indeed resolve as a triangle.  This would drag the ending-diagonal out for more time, taking it close to FOMC season in September!  Still looking at Q2 GDP as a minor turn, though, but 20 pts higher than the 1st chart.  We would also see new ATHs on the S&P.

S&P 500 alt count with larger W4 triangle

Wednesday, June 27, 2018

Crunch-time for the Ending-Diagonal

Need a big finish here with GDP, EOQ2, and the holiday break next week.

2823 on the S&P 500 mid-Tuesday would complete the E-D and the bounce since 2009.  IMO the ending-diagonal count still wants a dramatic C of 5.

SPX ending-diagonal

Thursday, June 21, 2018

W4 is in -- minor W5 up to go

It looks like W4 from the proposed ending-diagonal count completed at 2744 SPX today.  It doesn't look like we'll make it all the way down to the .382 at 2715. 

It retraced right to the .236 fib of the larger W3, and completed a very nice c of 4 impulse today.  Now there is a nice fib extension upward -- the 1.618 extension of this retrace -- pointing to the 2820 level right into the July 4 holiday.  /ES futures looking good now this evening.

SPX 06-21 ending-diagonal count

When this breaks down, we have channel support at 2430 or so at EOM July, followed by the August 1 FOMC (no hike) and a decent bounce.  The logical target of that bounce would be a retest and hard fail to retake the 200 DMA from underneath.

SPX path to 1810

The actual rate hike at the 9/26 meeting gives us the last leg down to firm support at 1810.  Then we can rally through Christmas, all the way to the mid-January Bradley turn date, before the real credit crisis makes landfall.