Monday, August 31, 2015

If you need a bearish count on SPX

This works.  It even includes a "leading diagonal", which has been an elusive unicorn in the tape for years.

Either SPX or the UVXY volatility ETF has got to break right here, right now.

The bearish count needs a new low this week, or else the recent drop was just some degree of a "wave 4", yet again, we know the drill, etc etc.

SPX proposed bear channel

Monday, August 24, 2015

Three Peaks and a Domed House may complete by Christmas

This week is all about banging out the margin calls and completing our descent to support (?) at 1820 SPX.

September FOMC will hike rates and initiate the next plunge to the 1530 area, by the October 9 Bradley turn date.

A final crash from the next Bradley turn in mid-November brings us down to 1074 SPX, just in time for the Fed to announce its next package of Quantitative Easing.  We will then be running on faith and fumes the rest of the way.

The descending trendline here is so steep, that this cycle may finish entirely by Christmas.

SPX 5Y 08-24 3PDH

VIX only 28 on a 100-handle S&P gap down?  Is that weirdly bullish?  Margin calls coming.  Edit:  VIX quotes bad on my end this morning.  UVXY!  OMG.

Friday, August 21, 2015

Well here's my guess

If the 1971 low holds over the weekend, we have a chance to finish up a domed-top here.

The market would rally 100 handles SPX from here into September opex (rate hike coming), kissing back the old support from below, as well as the bearish overhead trendline.

SPX 3PDH domed-top & drop

Monday, August 17, 2015

Charts 08-17: Tidy-up that channel

The drop at the open today made a mess of my short-term channel for SPX, but what we're left with is much cleaner.  I'd like to see us set a new high early in the session on Thursday, before reversing intraday and ending this op-ex week right at 2125 SPX.

Then we can finish up next week.  Anyone for 2162 SPX?  We may have to drag the daily SPX Bollinger along for the ride.

SPX 08-17

The larger waves for the initial panic crash this fall, "A" down.

SPX 08-17 1Y