Friday, November 9, 2018

Point of recognition

Just fell out of the c of 2 channel.

please read this - even if you are pleb-tier and can't get my 1934 GA&U edition

Now the candles get scary -- 500 pts down in 2 weeks -- and a formally-declared Bear.  

Here's the general idea, sketch I made a couple of days ago:

S&P 500 sketch


The Fed will NOT hike at the December FOMC, and this will bounce us back up in "B" for a final kissback visit to the rally channel since the 2009 lows.

Then we get a bond event or similar dislocation in January.  Sorry.  The market visits the 1360 area SPX by the March FOMC, for reasons I will explain to you next week.

This weekend I'll be out on Six Ridge in Olympic NP looking for my fellow bears.

also read this

Saturday, November 3, 2018

Finish up wave 2 this week

We're in the impulsive C up of 2 up, a deceptive expanded flat (B made a new low at 2604 SPX).  The .618 retrace from the 2628 low can have us back at 2820 midweek, possibly as early as Tuesday.


This may sound ambitious, but we just showed that we can knock off 100 pts of S&P 500 very quickly.  Let's see if the Donald John Trump has a China trade deal to announce Sunday night, after the /ES futures open.

SPX 5 min - expanded flat wave

Big picture view is a crash to the ├╝ber-long-term channel at 1360 this Spring.  If we break that channel, then the Fed has truly lost control and it's time to get scarce.


SPX daily - Springtime doom edition

Tuesday, October 30, 2018

Expanded flat wave 2

And maybe a triangle in the works as well.



I can't find the link at the moment, but Zero Hedge mentioned that the end of the month is when the Fed sells bonds to meet their balance sheet commitments, so tomorrow should have a weak bias.  So maybe we stall out some more and finish up a triangle pattern down around 2660.

Fresh money on November 1 should finally give us the boost to get through the overhead channel resistance from the decline.  Once we're through and retest it as support, we'll keep going, because it's a C wave, an impulse.

SPX 5 min

Saturday, October 27, 2018

Rally time

The .618 retrace of the entire decline also happens to be the lower edge of the old rally channel from 1810 through 2553 on the S&P 500.



We should visit it one last time before the bottom falls out again.  The short-trade into Thanksgiving should be legendary.

S&P 500 daily

All of this was made possible by the stick-save in the final minute of session trading on Friday.  Did you notice it?

Saved!  no crash Monday