Monday, March 23, 2015

The task of April is to return us to 1820 SPX

When the market finally rolls over, it will plummet like it did in August of 2011. 

Then it will bounce, and roll over again, but harder -- a May crash.  But the worst of it comes on the third leg down, a sustained bloodletting that simply refuses to end, as the pension funds unload.  A return to the 1000 level on the S&P 500 by the end of June is very possible.  It looks ridiculous on any long-term chart, a sheer cliff.

But who is seriously going to buy the dip and re-establish any degree of confidence?  All we need to do is get the selling underway, kissback two critical rally trendlines, and the market will implode

When you remove the QE supports, the market returns to its point of origin.  Only now we are laboring under all that debt.  The weakness is there, so are the warnings.

At least this first leg down will be highly tradable.  This may not be so when the real endgame arrives.  So stay frosty, Be like Bibi:

a young Benjamin Netanyahu prepares to trade SPY options
April's task for the S&P 500: steep decline, bounce at support

Saturday, March 21, 2015

BBRY Death-cross imminent

Market up 1% Friday, BBRY down nearly 2%.

This one is about to die.

Karl S. Denninger, future owner of BBRY.PK

So have some fun at Karl's expense.

And the chart.  You might object, noting that BBRY had a death cross roughly a year ago.  She survived that swoon, but she has now lost the channel from that recovery.

Bye-bye BBRY.

BBRY

Disclosure: I've never traded BBRY or any derivatives thereof.  I only play index options and volatility ETFs.

Edit -- more fun, try your hand at this.

Karl S. Denninger
Karl S. Denninger

Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Will BBRY survive 2015? Probably not ...

BlackBerry is approaching another death cross on her chart.  It looks like it's about time to wind this company down and sell the toner and the remaining sealed, unopened cans of keyboard de-duster.

BBRY 3Y

David Stockman and the ZeroHedge bear chorus are getting all excited lately with crash warnings or other violence on the indices.  I don't see why the current move can't last another week, dragging on toward the end of March.  Plenty of wiggle room on the chart, and we still need that touch of the upper daily and weekly Bollinger Bands.

SPX 40D