Friday, November 27, 2015

Season's Greetings from Deflation Land

From my family, and our friends the Assads, to yours, we wish you health and prosperity for the coming year.

wholesome and decent

blue eyes!  like mine

In an astounding twist of fate, Russia is now the guardian of the spark of Western Civilization, while the rest of the Old West rots from within.  The challenge to us all is to survive the collapse of the U.S. Empire in the days ahead.

Well, as long as the dollar still counts as the World Reserve Currency, we can still go shopping.

How long before these scenes are at Safeway and COSTCO?  Two years?  Three?

Austrians know how this story ends.  When the Dollar Era concludes, the mal-investments and unsustainable liabilities will be liquidated.

Do your best not to be one of them.

p.s. Can we get One More High?  Into FOMC?

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

This? Something else? Nothing at all?

We want to see patterns.

We want to believe there is order and causality and sense, matter in motion, not formless chaos.

Green channel?  Sure, why not.

SPX 2Y keying off 1737 area

Thursday, November 12, 2015

A wave count for those who refuse to believe the top is in

If you still think we can put in a higher high on SPX, then maybe a giant ending-diagonal count is for you.

SPX 11-12 ending-diagonal finale count

I tilt my head and squint my eyes, and the sharp October rally still looks like two five-wave impulse moves north, joined with a little correction -- i.e. an ABC move.  This would fit an ending-diagonal count that has been lurking since the August 24 mini-crash lows, which began with an initial bounce in 3 waves.

In this scenario, the October FOMC Minutes released next Wednesday are dovish and accommodating once again, sparking another short-squeeze off the .382 retrace at 2022 SPX.

The sharp 5th wave could then terminate either at the wedge boundary on Black Friday, or in the middle of the wedge on the December FOMC announcement itself.  AMZN P/E of 1000?

Or, of course, it never ever ends ...