Thursday, November 19, 2020

Now we cross the rally channel

Support is at about 2960 on the low edge of the rally channel, at the Full Moon at the end of November.

1970s State Street, Chicago

The next panic phase comes around the December 8th "Safe Harbor" deadline, ending when the Fed meets mid-month and is friendly again.  Trump will win; actually, he already has.

Q1 2021 is an epic disaster as all the idled mortgages and rents are due again, and the can can't be kicked.  We can easily reach a 3-digit S&P 500 by the end of February.

S&P 500 crossing the megaphone


Monday, November 9, 2020

Worst-case scenario

The worst-case scenario for the equity markets is a full-blown Constitutional crisis, keying off the Electoral College meeting 14 December.  It is a real crisis, sure, made exponentially worse by all the leverage and insolvency loosed upon the world.

Titanic vs modern cruise liner

This will only end when the Fed announces ambitious monetization and purchases of index ETFs at the January FOMC.

IMO this is the severe but brief deflationary shock that everyone on Real Vision expects to happen one of these days.  But who will catch it?

S&P 500 worst-case

Sunday, November 8, 2020

The future is knowable

Thou preparest a table before me in the presence of mine enemies: thou anointest my head with oil; my cup runneth over.

Magnificent Mile

S&P 500 support is 500