Monday, September 22, 2014

The bearish count from here

Last week my sister was in town from upstate New York, so I took her up Sahale Arm above Cascade Pass.  We had a nice day out in the Cascades.  You can see that the blueberries are just starting to get their fall color.

looking south over Sahale Arm, North Cascades NP

First order of business this week is to get back to 1978 SPX for a bounce; then we can reject off the old channel in a few days.  This will give us a stealth wave 1 off Friday's high.

SPX 09-22
SPX 09-22 3PDH

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

SPY option bets and the case for SPX 2050

There is an interesting stand-off in the October SPY options.  On one side, we can see some very large and very bearish bets (put options).

SPY October 2014 options

On the other, we see a surprisingly large number of SPY 205 calls.  So who is right?

The October 8th turn window -- Bradley turn, full moon -- looms large for some kind of turn.  Up until now I've been thinking of it mainly as a low, like it was in 2008.

What makes it interesting as a top is that 10/8 lands precisely on this 2050 SPX level.  There are E-W wave considerations as well, for the larger move up from SPX 1737.

It also works with the dual-nested 3PDH patterns, which eventually wants to bring us back to SPX 1074.  See the thick orange line on the chart:

SPX 2050 October 8th turn and 3PDH

There are big options bets in place for October.  One of the two camps is probably right.

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Is this our long-lost 5th wave?

We have been waiting patiently for the complement to the 40-handle minor W1 move from 1904 to 1944 on the SPX, which took place over about 1.5 days.

This morning looks impulsive, and a similar W5 here would time well for a new high right into tomorrow's FOMC.  The overall shape up here is a classic broadening-top (megaphone).

After that?  The 200 DMA on the SPX lines up nicely with an early-October cycle-low (Bradley, Full Moon etc) turn.

GLTA you crazy kids.

SPX 09-16 a.m.

Thursday, September 11, 2014