Sunday, November 19, 2017

The elusive, mythical leading-diagonal

Off the 2597 SPX high, we actually have a five-wave decline that could possibly be an elusive "leading diagonal", which is similar to a terminal ending-diagonal, but whose triplets and overlapping waves signifies the uncertainty at the beginning of a directional change instead of its end.  Daneric has suggested these numerous times over the years, each time proving to be a bust, so it's achieved something of a mythical status, a chimera, a unicorn, possibly apocryphal Elliott nonsense.  But we'll give it a shot.

the lion in winter

The market lost steam on Friday precisely at the .618 retrace level of the drop from 2597 to 2557, so we have the remote possibility of both a leading-diagonal and an initial channel south, which will reach its low in the week of the next fiscal cliff deadline, 12/8.  Congress will keep the wheels greased at the 11th hour and rally us through Christmas.

Red /ES tonight would mean we are starting a larger 3rd wave down, which will intensify as the Press fans the flames of a fiscal wreck into December.

SPX leading-diagonal and possible new channel

Saturday, October 28, 2017

Fed Austerity will slay the petro-Yuan

China threw down the gauntlet this past week, announcing detailed plans for launching a petro-Yuan, oil priced internationally in their pretend currency, instead of ours.

This will, of course, destroy the $USD and put the Fed out of business overnight.  However, there is a solution to this problem -- austerity.  The Chinese banking system is so overextended and utterly impossible, that the plan ahead for us must be to ruin it, and collapse their economy, before they can destroy what's left of ours.  We must show them who really runs the Empire, or risk losing it all.

The S&P 500 will also be a casualty here, but we have re-capitalized the banks (right?) and FAS-157 guarding them anyway, so we can and will win a brutal war of financial attrition against the Chi-coms.

The current channel, and wave similarity, suggests maybe 2611 SPX into the Wednesday Fed meeting.  Then we will need a very stern policy statement from the Committee to get the ball rolling.  Nominating Taylor as the next chair would help as well.

This builds into larger waves to retest the 1800 SPX area and set us up for wild times in 2018.

The Fed can't fuck around any more with the petro-Yuan on the drawing board.  They need to throw the incredibly improvised and brittle Chinese financial system right into the hopper, their society into chaos, watch Xi lose the Mandate of Heaven, and secure the place of the $USD if for only a few more years.

We can do this.

Monday, October 2, 2017

The great game in the face of Fed deflation hell

The Fed is pulling their chips.  How long will everyone remain at the table?

An American Tragedy

It's all crystal-clear now.  Never say die.

S&P 500 returns to long-term support at 525

Friday, September 22, 2017