Monday, June 10, 2019

Two megaphones

There are two megaphones in play.




There's this one:

S&P daily


But also this one:

S&P 5 min

What piece of good news could drive the market to such heights (3018) by Thursday afternoon?

Sunday, June 2, 2019

Next big test at the 2650 level

The target on the confirmed head-and-shoulders on the S&P 500 is 2644. 




The halfway-back level for the rally since Christmas is 2650.  We could test this area this week, and the reaction from that test determines whether or not we finish the giant megaphone (McHugh's "Jaws of Death") pattern we have been in since the January 2018 highs.

The 2650 area is decision time, where we either find support, and make it to the promised land over 3K on the S&P, or we bomb down to 2250 or so into June FOMC, and monetary policy gets involved.

I'll take either outcome, and I don't mind the higher high, because that only gives us more to short when the final reckoning comes at last.  There is a fib extension target around 3025 SPX along the top of the megaphone in mid-July.  Before then we will have the June FOMC and a G-20 meeting in late June that could fluff the markets to get us there.

The restrained $VIX and weirdly buoyant $JNK and $HYG ETFs are telling us that we are just not yet in panic/crisis/liquidation mode. 

We are patient as always.



Broadening wedge top, where (E) touches the top

Friday, May 17, 2019

Will PBOC devalue the Yuan this Sunday night?

It sure looks that way.

Please do not disturb the Amazon.com wagie

USD/CNY weekly chart, nice cup-n-handle.  Kyle Bass may have exited his famous Yuan short just as it was about to pay off.  This is headed to 8, then 10, then to 100.  Gee, that's too bad.


USD/CNY weekly

This also explains the sudden surge in BitCoin and other cryptos for the last couple of weeks; insiders know this is coming and are fleeing the scene.

If the market tanks in 2019 -- say if we plummet to the lower support in the next 2 weeks -- then the Donald Trump will have absolutely no choice but to go full scorched earth on the Bolshevik Democrat party in 2020.  He must destroy the evil party and salt the earth.

Note how we kissed back the Christmas rally channel this week.  The big bounce into early July is to the .618, likely after the Fed gets on-board here.

SPX hourly

I've been saying this for a long time, the way we defeat China is by pulling the plug on their cancerous financial ponzi and letting the Chinese people finish off their rotten elites.  Maybe they can end up with a proper representative government instead of another Oriental despotism.

Sunday, May 12, 2019

Gotterdammerung

Futures off 30 tonight, and we could see something truly beautiful this week into May opex.


It has always been my personal thesis that when this thing finally goes, it will throw a rod and fall much faster than anyone thinks.  Shock and awe, bloody destruction, again and again.

We could be testing the Christmas lows as early as this Friday.

SPX nightmare

Market longs are simply in error.  And the S&P 500 is due for a good culling.

Good luck to all bears.