Saturday, July 2, 2016

It sure looks like we are approaching a turn

Posting a handful of charts on the S&P, bonds, and gold.  All of them have patterns nearing completion that portent something big in the works, very soon, IMO.

Watching for the S&P to rally and fail at 2125 on Tuesday, put up a key reversal daily candle.  I haven't checked on Hindenburg Omens in a while -- were there any in the run-up to the Brexit headfake?  Maybe we will look for them again on any bounce off the 1740 area, once we get there, leading to the big Fall swoon.

SPX 60D broadening top
SPX back to 1040 this Fall
TLT completing a big move
GLD

52 comments:

TSE said...

"Posting a handful of charts on the S&P, bonds, and gold. All of them have patterns nearing completion that portent something big in the works, very soon, IMO."

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Christian Gustafson said...

"Proshares will reverse split $UVXY 5:1 on July 25. A share bought at inception at $40 now worth less than 0.08 cents."

Hugh Jazole said...

I think gold is toast. I've read in various places recently, that George Soros is bullish on gold now. If that's not the ultimate death rattle, I don't know what is. Food commodities, and related stocks might be one of the few places to hide.

Christian Gustafson said...

Mebbe indictment of the Hillary Crinton is this week's Black Swan.

Maximum Leader God-Emperor Trump not exactly promising the QEs.

Bryan Franco said...

No Hillary, no QE. Correct.

Bicycle said...

Gold and the dollar will be stampeding bulls at the same time while all other currencies fall

deflation exported back to the petrodollar from all corners of the globe

all leveraged risk assets and derivative based instruments collapse

TSE said...

"No Hillary, no QE. Correct."

Realy? The Trump has made and lost a fortune in Real Estate.

Clinton Is Spending $500k A Day On TV Ads While Trump Spends Nothing

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-01/clinton-spending-500k-day-tv-ads-while-trump-spends-nothing

The Trumpening is still constrained within the confines by the rules of the Federal Reserve.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTxSNosJrDo

Christian Gustafson said...

I don't see why Grand Field Marshall Trump should spend shekel one on the tee vee until he is sure HRC has not self-detonated like a Hamas grandma at a checkpoint on Mothers' Day.

He will strike when the time and target is right. Man is a beast of prey. Spengler knew this, so did Nietzsche. Trump knows it, too.

rose2797 said...

Gf. The first leg from 2125 should come down to what level to identify. P3 has started. As many are saying. 2103 to 2000 and it will gi back up to 2125. Thanks

rose2797 said...

Gf. The first leg from 2125 should come down to what level to identify. P3 has started. As many are saying. 2103 to 2000 and it will gi back up to 2125. Thanks

rose2797 said...

There was one ho and that was on the day market was up. I think it was june 29

rose2797 said...

There was one ho and that was on the day market was up. I think it was june 29

TSE said...

+1 - "I don't see why Grand Field Marshall Trump should spend shekel one on the tee vee until he is sure HRC has not self-detonated like a Hamas grandma at a checkpoint on Mothers' Day.

He will strike when the time and target is right. Man is a beast of prey. Spengler knew this, so did Nietzsche. Trump knows it, too."

Hugh Jazole said...

Have we ever had this many failed attempts at a new high?

Permabear Doomster said...

re: Have we ever had this many failed attempts at a new high?
--

17 since May 2015.

However, I'd guess if you looked at the Dow in the early 1980s...maybe a fair few hundred until it broke up and away.

--

CG... sp'1000 looks a stretch.... but 1600/1500s remain viable... not least if DB/EU-banks start imploding.

Christian Gustafson said...

I figure the Fed will panic for realz around SPX 800, will roll out the helicopter money. Buy that dip.

Christian Gustafson said...

BTW, TLT overthrew the trendlines I drew on its chart. It's off in space now. Can the Fed Minutes bring it back into orbit?

GLD is still under its line of resistance, however.

credit bubbles end in tears / a cycle every eighty years

scott said...

accurate as always CG! ROFLMAO Finally after months (almost a year?) of ATNH BS you see the light! I should dump my shorts from two days ago and GO VERY LONG given your change. What is really frightening is I agree with your Gold analysis - turn should come between tomorrow and the 11th.

Money Flow projections on all metals AND the USD come in the same:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JDST&p=D&st=2015-12-14&en=2016-07-06&id=p49515241168&a=465381703

MODERATE THIS HACK - Hillary indicted! called that one right also! LOL

Give it up!

The black swan is your analysis sinking like a scorched meteor...

TLT is good through later this year as this projection shows

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VUSTX&p=W&st=2012-09-28&en=today&id=p73700795170&a=464825351

TYX is excellent at projecting MAJOR bottoms...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VUSTX&p=W&st=2012-09-28&en=today&id=p73700795170&a=464825351

Christian Gustafson said...

If you're holding shorts, you're probably two weeks early, but what you do with them is your business.

We're headed toward a serious crisis and crash; I'm torn on whether TLT and bonds skyrocket or sell off with equities. A real bond selloff, with rates headed to normal, historical levels, would take the stock market with it.

If there is no bond crisis just yet, then the 10Y is headed well below 1%, and bonds won't blow up until equities bottom, with helicopter money releases or some other Fed dead-ender desperation.

I maintain that we could retrace the entire rally since the March 2009 lows ... by Halloween 2016. That's the real meaning of a loss in the power of the CBs at this stage, IMO.

Manfred Zimmel has a Bradley model date on July 19, right after July op-ex. Let's see where we are on that Tuesday.

Hugh Jazole said...

August 2015 2.0?

Christian Gustafson said...

Hey Hugh.

Check out the chain for the August wk2 SPY puts. I've been watching these and may pick some up if the setup and timing are there for them.

Since the weekly strikes are only opened and offered as the calendar turns, they do not have long-term buyers. When a new expiry opens, the open interest for all strikes is zero.

So who bought the 4,257 contracts of Aug wk2 SPY 175 puts?



Christian Gustafson said...

Here's what I am talking about.

Note the anemic volumes on these way out of the money puts. And then there's those 175s.

Hugh Jazole said...

Have we reached peak corruption?

scott said...

1960 is the conservative target on the next drop that started Friday (when I loaded 60% short! lol)

Hugh Jazole said...

"Watching for the S&P to rally and fail at 2125 on Tuesday" How about Friday!?

Christian Gustafson said...

Ah, but do we have a completed wave count? LOLZ

Hugh Jazole said...

This looks like the best chance at a ATNH we've had in a while. If this fails we're done. I say we rally all day, no NATH and start to fall hard Monday.

Christian Gustafson said...

Patience here, don't forget it's July op-ex next week.

This looks like the 3rd wave in the series up from 2074. RSI high on the hourly, etc. Which means this needs to wind down and give us 4 and 5.

It certainly looks like we can make new highs.

Christian Gustafson said...

Also, the lower daily BB on the VIX is in the 12s.

Making that or an 11-handle will be great for buying puts.

Hugh Jazole said...

Hangin in there Scott!?

Christian Gustafson said...

Come on, Hugh, as tempting as it is, no taunting please.

It will turn soon enough. We want to see the usual mix of goodies: a terminal pattern, new highs if possible (likely), bearish divergences, lows on the VIX, contact with various Bollinger Bands at either end, and the rest.

It's coming.

Hugh Jazole said...

I have friends selling into this who NEVER SELL ANYTHING! Selling stock options etc, even they sense something is not right. These are people who know nothing about the market.

Stockboom said...

Have we reached to your target of 2125? now you expecting turn down?

Christian Gustafson said...

Not just yet, Stockboom. This looks like the 3rd wave of the move.

I'm waiting until after July opex, where we likely get that elusive new high. 2144 SPX still on the table.

Stockboom said...

do you think one can still go short on VIX? looks very sold out right now may see small bounce...SPX may take breather before shooting higher maybe?

Christian Gustafson said...

You're picking up nickels before the steamroller, Stockboom. If VIX drops, and you're bearish, then you get a gift on index PUT prices. Be happy with that.

But VIX could be stubborn or even rise. Look how it blew out ahead of Brexit. It's even possible that the SPX could make new highs on a rising VIX, as worried institutions hedge the move. We mortals would note it and call it a "bearish divergence".

Be patient, let your model play out as you expect it, and stick to your game plan.

rose2797 said...

CG this st. line move, with so many gaps below on light volume, it almost feels no pull back. people caling 2300-2400 etc. what wil bring this down

T.Berry said...

rose with some patience we'll see 2300-2400 but not for like a year or so. we are just getting started with the move up lots of clear air above now. it could be an epic one too. get ready to see the ath signs out for a while.

rose2797 said...

TB, thanks, what do you think will bring this down, right now to elect hiliary, they have these phony job numbers

T.Berry said...

historically the stock market performs better with a democrat in office. i think hillary is going to win. as for me i'm a long term investor and have no plans to exit just continue buying the dips because in the long run, the stock market always comes back.besides the US is the best and safest place to be. we're the only market at all time highs

Christian Gustafson said...

Well there's the rub, Rose.

We're either in a topping process here, or we are breaking out of a 2-year range to great heights.

Kuroda could announce helicopter drops of money in the streets of Tokyo next week, and Wall Street might think that's just wonderful news.

Or $DB could implode and take the market with it.

T.Berry said...

after spending the last year building a nice solid base i think we're about to see a big move higher, certainly not one last final high . much easier making money in a secular bull market by being long thats for sure. : )

T.Berry said...

cg, i think db will have the same effect as brexit and the piigs which were nothings but fearmongering. it won't effect the us economy or the us market at all long term

rose2797 said...

CG, there is a gap at 1850, 2000, 2040 if up gaps are filled, wont the lower ones be filled

Hugh Jazole said...

How long till Caldero blows a gasket? It looks like he's about to turn bullish, after being bearish for all of 2016 so far.

Bryan Franco said...

Our latest from HT Trading. This looks nothing like 2013.

http://httrading.blogspot.com/

Hugh Jazole said...

Great post Bryan. I keep hearing all kinds of theories, about why bonds and stocks are both rallying. I don't believe any of them, just more "it's different this time" nonsense.

Hugh Jazole said...

Is this happening?

http://stopshouting.blogspot.com/2016/07/the-color-revolution-comes-to-america.html


Christian Gustafson said...

Stocks and bonds can't rally together?

Really?

Really?

Gee, what will happen if they sell-off together?

rose2797 said...

Cg r u still expecting the bear run shown up or u r in the camp 2200 2500. All the internet talking about

rose2797 said...

Cg r u still expecting the bear run shown up or u r in the camp 2200 2500. All the internet talking about

Hugh Jazole said...

I was referring to the DEGREE that bonds are rallying of late. IEF up over 7% YTD vs. 4% or so for SPY. I suppose it's possible they could both sell off, but in the short term I wouldn't bet on it. Bonds have outperformed stocks for a few years now, but this recent action looks like a warning signal. Cash is king once again, imho.