Sunday, July 10, 2016

An autumn crash modeled on Bradley turn dates and GDP releases

It's taken all this time this year to inch our way up back to breaking the May, 2015, market highs, and it looks like we are finally within striking distance.  I'm looking for a final high in the 2140-2150 range over the next week and a half, possibly reversing after July op-ex.

Is Donald Trump the Gray Champion?

The Austrian Manfred Zimmel has calculated a significant "Bradley" model astro turn date on 7/19, right after op-ex, and if you have any interest in this stuff, here is his work for 2016:

2016 Bradley model turns, Manfred Zimmel

You could use the four dates from July through October to model a serious crisis and market crash through the fall, keying off these dates, Full Moons, and USA GDP releases.  It might look like this.

SPX 1Y Fall crash based on Bradleys

At the ~800 SPX level we have a surprise long-term trendline coming up from the late 1980s, before the domestic credit expansion, financialization, and globalization of credit really took off.  It's also near the 2003 market lows.

SPX long-term support?

Helicopter money drops then save the world once more, until what's left of Bretton Woods breaks down and the sun sets on the $USD as world reserve.  The debts matter, they cannot possibly be paid, so default and collapse are inevitable.

Of course, no matter what happens, you should always buy Seattle residential real-estate, and then buy some more, because this run will never, ever end.

Seen in the last cycle

Hang in there, getting rough out there these days.


Unknown said...

"It's Great to be Filthy Rich": FEAR playing I Love Livin in the City. Gotta love Lee Ving!

Then we move onto Warrants Hairband version:

Poor Jani Lane (lead singer of Warrant and part time Pizza Delivery Guy) : On August 11, 2011, Lane was found dead of acute alcohol poisoning at a Comfort Inn hotel in Woodland Hills, California. The cause of death at autopsy was recorded as undetermined; he was 47 years old. ( Being a Wisconsin boy and veteran drinker, I coulda provided him with some tips - to avoid the acute alcohol poisoining; at least)

During the shooting of Warrant's "Cherry Pie" video, Lane met model Bobbie Brown, who starred in the video, and they wed a couple of months later in July 1991. They were married for three years and had a daughter, Taylar, in 1992 before divorcing in 1993.

*WOWZA* Makes a grown man cry and forget about his riches..... surely the stock will be RISING.... (LOL)

As for that Autumn stuff - I think I saw her featured at D-Cup.

Depriv said...

About long term support and such, I've made a small sketch a few days ago about what I think will repeat:

So - yes, I think it'll be indeed a range. In this scale it does not really matters if it goes up first for that 24xx target or not - it draws only the limits for the sideway movements in the next decades.

However, if it does goes up first, then the descend will be some corrective pattern. If it does not goes up, then it'll be a clean cut (c-like impulse).

Juniorbuffett said...

As much as I love to see this scenario of yours play out and I pray that somehow miracle way stay short all the way till S & P reach this low! My common sense tells me that this is next to impossible... unless we will have big war breakout...

christiangustafson said...

BJ --

The levels of support and resistance work, for example, the kissback and violent rejection off the 1900 level after the first low @ 1735.

It's only when you zoom out a bit that it all looks impossibly vertical, a true implosion. The bullish scenarios of a high-degree 5th wave to the 2400 SPX level look much more "probable" in comparison.

So it is very much a Black Swan scenario, no doubt.

christiangustafson said...

Do keep an eye on the lower daily Bollinger Band of the VIX, too.

ZH reports that there are no fewer than 14 people from the Fed speaking this week. "Mission accomplished"?

Anonymous said...

CG, you deserve a round of applause! Even if your uber doomer scenario does not play out, you have consistently stuck to the new highs call. Very few bears were on board with that. The fact that were right should make us all a bit nervous about your future prediction!

christiangustafson said...

Well, thanks, Hugh! It just took so many headfakes to get up here.

Keep an eye on this, btw:

Apparent basis for predicted July financial implosion
divedeeper - Mon, Jul 11, 2016 - 12:25 PM

Bix Weir issued an email calculating that the derivatives contracts which were triggered by BRexit will start to be settled (or not) on July 12th then going out for the next 3-4 weeks. His opinion is that many of these contracts will fail to be honored and this will start the real carnage which will be visible as majors being blown up.

rose2797 said...

cg, I also want to congratulate u, you were saying for months 2144, and also said, u need clear cut 5th wave, so your bear case plays out. Now all the world is bullish calling for 2250, 2300, etc, cpx .50, hopefully your rest of scenario plays out too

Anonymous said...

"It just took so many headfakes to get up here." I think part of the problem is the market is behaving in a way that it hasn't in decades, maybe ever! The fact that Caldero is pulling his hair out is telling. We all know there is corruption behind the scenes, but something truly odd is taking place lately. I feel terrible for our friends in Europe.

rose2797 said...

people now saying, market wont even correct to 2100

Anonymous said...

Caldero shut down his comments section. LOL! This is getting good.

T.Berry said...

"levels never seen before" sounds better than new ath's lol.

given we're at the beginning of earnings and aa beat handily and is up over 3.5% ah to kick thing off (they usually never beat by this much) earnings will most likely come in better than expected and the market usually rallies over earnings season, we should see many more "levels never seen before". fact of matter is the stock market always comes back lol.

keep up the good work cg! thinking it's very possible we see 2250 (only 5% away now) in '16 . the days of sub 2k may well be history

Anonymous said...

Another sign of times.

Depriv said...

Here it goes, the usual 'as I see it':