Sunday, July 24, 2016

Has the 10Y yield bottomed?

The long-term chart shows an RSI divergence on the recent lows.

Maybe we will learn a bit more on this in the upcoming week.

^TNX monthly


Christian Gustafson said...

And TLT, too, is in a dangerous place.

John said...

Right on brotha!!

Christian Gustafson said...

It looks like you have made that ETN on yahoo your own secret private space.

I love it.

Bryan Franco said...

Amazing that you could get just about the same YTD total return from most stock and bond aggregates. Something has to give. Perhaps both will give.

John said...

All Yahoo boards are secret :)

TSE said...

Cheese is good, and only moderately expensive.

Be sure to also pickup some Johnsonville Brats!

And also add the Sauerkraut - as a child I worked in the Kraut fields near Franksville, WI - which produced Frank's Sauerkraut.

As a teenager I hunted Ducks at their ponds on the weekend.

Now long gone, and sorely missed.

Get ya some and heap upon your Brats and Cheese:

Don't forget the Beer. Pabst, or Schlitz, of course.

Christian Gustafson said...

Huber beer, sold in returnable bottles, from Monroe, WI.

My 4-H club used to ride the bike trail from Brodhead to New Glarus every year, with overnight camping in a state park.

John Smith said...


I remember Huber Beer. Do you remember Black Bear soda?

And I can go further back, to when I went to Ronscholdt's (Racine, WI) and had a soda jerk make me a "Green River", which is basically a Coke without the caramel coloring.

From a forgotten time, returnable brown and thick bottles, along with a heavy wax coated cardboard case were worth a few $. They are, to the best of my knowledge, long gone. As an underage drinking teen we used to chip in and buy cases of Kingsbury Beer - always in returnable bottles.

As a child and teen, I also spent a lot of time at Scharenbergs - home of the Peacock - which to this day I still have some of the feathers I collected in the Woods. Located close to Montello, WI., White Lake was a beautiful natural spring fed lake with a white sand bottom. Great for swimming and relaxing on. Along with drinking beer, boating, fishing, and picking up chicks - Illinois Campers.

I can still remember being underage, being out on the point on Dave's property, drinking some beer and smoking something better while listening to Pink Floyd and picking up older chicks. (16 v 21)

Days long gone.

Since my 3 month camping experience of last year I have moved from WI to TN. The roads here are too dangerous to go bike-riding. Narrow, twisting, up and down and no shoulders. But the Motobecane is here.

Wisconsin, and especially the Eau Claire area is sorely missed this Summer.

Washington State is much different. Very beautiful indeed, but the hot,dry and viscious wind that came up the Columbia River took me by surprise.

I truly enjoyed the Oregon Coast, but the coast was cold.

My favorite was Kings Canyon and Sequoia National. I will never forget that camping trip. Of course I visited the John Muir rock - I came in from the East - from Mono Lake through the (hated) Yosemite - (afer an enjoyable visit to Mammoth Lake) NOTE: I rode my bicycle from the Skate Board Park located at the base to the Peaks TWICE! Down to up.

At Whittaker Creek I took the trail and saw one of the largest old growth Douglas Firs still in existence. Shortly after leaving Crater National Park, I followed the Rogue River down, and stopped in a spot shortly after the Rogue goes through some rock formations to camp - and found myself surrounded by huge old growth Douglass Firs. Plus the best COLD water I have ever drank from a stream and made Brandies & Water. From there, down to the coast.

Eventually, after traveling dowm the Coast it was up the Klamath. And I visited Bluff Creek abd Bigfoot Books. Steven Strufert is, unfortunatelty an asshole.

Then onto Mt. Shasta, Weed, CA. (LOL) and Lassen.

The financial World we must live in is so disconnected from the actual physical World.

For your consideration:

John said...

"The symmetry in terms of time isn’t quite complete; according to the diagram, the mirror-image low in yields isn’t due until July 2017. On the other hand, the symmetry in yield level has already been satisfied. In fact, the 1.55% (monthly average) yield record in July 2012 was two basis points below the “model projection.” Bond bulls holding out for the 2017 projection do so at their own peril."--February 20, 2013
by Doug Ramsey, Eric Weigel

We reached a low of 1.35% on the 10 year in 2016 so far.