Monday, July 25, 2016

Throw in the kitchen sink

Ending-diagonals, Bradley turns, expanding-wedge megaphone tops, GDP releases, grinding down the shorts, 1-4 overlap in a terminal move, an October crash, the works, everything!

SPX 07-25

Notice how the wave 4 takes another 6 weeks to play out.  Better to log off and go hiking.


Christian Gustafson said...

Go hiking, or stay inside and play for the next eight weeks. Addictive!

I usually play with the handle "Norway".

Bryan Franco said...

Would love to see a version where October is a bounce. Crash in either September or November. Why? Too obvious given crash of '08. Need more surprise.

Christian Gustafson said...

Bryan --

I think I understand now, what will be the impetus for "wave 3 down".

Wave 3 down -- a true vertical moment of realization -- starts on the eve of November 9.

Think about it. They're going to leave a deflationary depression on Mr. Trump's door.

Depriv said...

Don't wanna' go trolling, but the more worried you are (about Trump, about Brexit, about the next collapse, about whatever) the more sure I am that it's just not jet the right time for >>that<<...

These difficult climbs to new heights are often referred as the 'wall of fear' - I think I start to realize the reason behind it.

Avalanches starts with the most harmless looking thing - the last snowflake. Drama has nothing to do with it...

T.Berry said...

plenty of fear ahead too, db collapse, italian banks, trump presidency...etc, plus a zillion more crash calls-lol so keep looking out above as many more new lnsb are on the horizon : )

Anonymous said...

"plenty of fear ahead too" The VIX suggests otherwise.

T.Berry said...

exactly hugh! thats why you don't listen to scaremongers who claim the crash will happen when db collapses or italian banks implode or trump will and so on. look back over past 7 years and how many crashes were there going to be? plenty lol. why those fighting such a strong market is beyond me. its going much higher for much longer. always does.

Christian Gustafson said...

When does Bill Kristol give his address at the DNC this week?

Bryan Franco said...

CG. Any particular sectors you like between now and peak insanity?

Christian Gustafson said...

ATM I'm just interested in that 5th wave spike and fail I have drawn on the charts.

Should it play out, it would easily be the trade of a lifetime. Nothing but tedious Summer chop until then, with a slightly bearish drop into September opex -- which is also a Full Moon (low).

If the scenario works out, I'll buy Q3 SPY calls at the close. But that's 6+ weeks from now.

Permabear Doomster said...

CG.... I did smile at the ticker site pic.

It seems we might have outlasted Denniger.

All thats left is for BBRY to file for chapter 48... or whatever number it is.

john said...

Chump for bagman 2017

Bryan Franco said...

Every large cap tech company reacts favorably to their earnings announcements?

Bryan Franco said...

Pop 'n Fade Friday?

Anonymous said...

"Pop 'n Fade Friday?" Starting to look like it, probably nothing too exciting though. There is just no downside power whatsoever. Yawn.

Christian Gustafson said...

Unless we pop somehow and race up to tag an important trendline, I don't see any need at all to speculate on anything.

IMO we're in the "eat theta" backwater on the chart, which is going to drag on for another six weeks. There's a Full Moon right on September opex, and I'd actually like to buy it, very aggressively, if we're near my target. Until then, 4th wave hell in my book.

August is for hiking and alpine blueberries.

TSE said...

An interesting development from Turkey, which changes everything:

BOMBSHELL Exposé: The U.S. Military Used Incirlik Air Base To Stage Failed Coup In Turkey

The unsuccessful coup d’état in Turkey, that was implemented by the US Military in concert with NATO, has precipitated an unparalleled sea change in the Middle East.

What the ‘media’ are not telling you is that 7 Russian fighter jets and two S400 rocket systems in Northern Syria were tracking down the Turkish jets issuing them a warning if the Russian radar systems picked up any activity from them they would be promptly shot down. This is why the Turkish jets never fired, they had ‘company’.

Back in "the day" I worked for Contel on the AUTOVON system (1950's technology) in military bases at both Mt. Vergine Italy and Mt. Pateras Greece. Those facilities have since been abandoned and replaced with digital switches maintained by the USN. Incirlik was always of utmost importance. Of course, it should come as no surprise as it housed Nuclear Weapons.

Now we must ask - Was "Castle Bravo" an anomaly for incorrect calculations - or did it open a window to another World?

The Deadly Miscalculation at Castle Bravo


America's Aging Baby Boomers, Forced To Work Until Death, Blamed For Collapsing US Productivity

The days of speculating and profiting are soon to end. Enjoy it while you can, and continue to buy the dip. A World "made by hand" is gonna be difficult.

Be sure to read, Plagues & Epidemics

The first epidemic of a waterborne disease probably was caused by an infected caveman relieving himself in waters upstream of his neighbors.

Perhaps the entire clan was decimated, or maybe the panicky survivors packed up their gourds and fled from the “evil spirits” inhabiting their camp to some other place.

As long as people lived in small groups, isolated from each other, such incidents were sporadic. But as civilization progressed, people began clustering into cities. They shared communal water, handled unwashed food, stepped in excrement from casual discharge or spread as manure, used urine for dyes, bleaches, and even as an antiseptic.

More Beer and Brats, please.

Anonymous said...

Funny. I just came across the book Strategic Vision by Zbigniew Brzeziński. He lists Turkey as well as Russia as countries the US needs to align with, in order to maintain our influence in the world. Otherwise China will quickly surpass us. He says this needs to happen by 2025, interesting times ahead folks.

TSE said...

While from NEO:

Saudi Arabia is Setting a Trap for Moscow Yet Again

There’s no doubt that the recent failed coup attempt in Turkey has clearly influenced Riyadh’s stance on the Syrian crisis in light of the possible rapprochement between Moscow and Ankara. Should the attempts of Tehran and Ankara to establish close communication channels succeed, all power in the region will be in the hands of Russia, Turkey and Iran, which would be an extremely worrisome development for Saudi Arabia. By exploiting this fact, Washington has forced the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) to launch an economic crusade against Moscow yet again. It should be noted that Riyadh’s position is heavily influenced by the EU which has suffered a string of terrorist attacks in recent weeks. Those terrorist attacks were carried out by ISIS, against which Moscow and Tehran have been fighting successfully. For this reason, Assad’s resignation is no longer being demanded in Europe anymore.

Russia’s military presence in Syria has radically changed the balance of powers in the region. Moscow’s determination to move in to save Damascus was an unpleasant surprise for the West and the GCC. Especially due to the fact that Russian-Syrian relations were not believed to be close enough for Moscow to interfere in such an unpredictable war. Back in 2003, the Kremlin abandoned Saddam Hussein almost without a fight, although Iraq was more important an ally for Moscow than Syria today. Russian-Iranian military cooperation in Syria along with common interests played a decisive role in this turn. At the same time, the tense situation in Yemen, the depletion of the financial resources of Saudi Arabia provoked by declining oil prices, along with countless victims of terrorist attacks in Europe have led to the weakening of Saudi positions in Syria.


Russia And China Will Hold Joint Naval Drills In Contested South China Sea

When on July 12 we described the symbolic, if utterly meaningless ruling by the Hague's Permanent Court of Arbitration on July 12, according to which China had no legal claim on most of the South China Sea (obviously, a ruling that China said repeatedly both before and after it would ignore), we said that "Ironically, in attempting to stem China's territorial expansions in the region, the tribunal will likely just provoke Beijing even more."

Just over two weeks later we got the first official confirmation that this is precisely what has happened, when overnight China's Defense Ministry announced that China and Russia would hold "routine" naval exercises in the contested area in the South China Sea this coming September, "adding that the drills were aimed at strengthening their cooperation and were not aimed at any other country."

Translation: the drills are aimed at the US, whose diplomatic relationship with "uber hacker" Russia is the worst it has been since the cold war, and whose ties with China have been deteriorating over the past several years, and culminating with July's ruling which clearly pinpointed the biggest geopolitical tension point - the South China Sea.

And just for FUN:

5 biggest nukes

pb said...

No way in hell the white haired witch will hike rates until Trump is elected President. Then the Fed will drop the Market and it will start to sink like the Titanic.

Bryan Franco said...

Question. If they tank the market after election but before T -bone is inaugerated, then technically it is all under O's watch. Wouldn't they have to kick this out until January?

Ken Barrows said...

2Q GDP will be revised significantly higher in September, right after the Fed holds the fed funds rate steady.

Christian Gustafson said...

Or it will be revised to a negative value, Ken. What then?

TSE said...

"Or it will be revised to a negative value, Ken. What then?"

This implies that the Fed buys it's own garbage back and, well, redistributes the "credit wealth" back to the masses. The Creator is also the Destroyer, and like the Phoenix, rises again from the ashes.

Extinguishing debt creates - nothing - and nothing may be expressed as a null set bracketed by something. From whence emerges the everlasting Trinity. A null set bracketed on both sides.

The FED is pure magic, and, in one form or another - everlasting.

And so from Nothing, Something emerges. And we are merely Observers located by time.

Continue to buy the dip.

qichengm said...

Hi CG,

Is it possible that Nov 3 is w1, Jan 20 is w2, April 20 is w3, jun 27 is w4 and Aug 1 is w5 of ed of primary 5 ?

Bryan Franco said...

Treasuries having some outsized down days. Is it beginning? Bondpocalyse.

Christian Gustafson said...

Bonds look ok ... for now.

Sticking with the chart posted in this thread, seeing a long, tedious correction into the Full Moon on September op-ex.

Bryan Franco said...

Indeed. Just caught my eye though.