Friday, July 15, 2016

Or an extended 5th wave?

Bearish wedge.  Note the .382 retrace to 2074 SPX marked wave 4.

SPX 07-15 a.m.

33 comments:

Bryan Franco said...

CG. That implies the Brexit low was a 4th wave. Where is wave 2 then?

Christian Gustafson said...

Wave 2 was SPX 1891 on February 24.

A short W2 compared for the dramatic c of 4 into Brexit.

Bryan Franco said...

If that is true, then I have to question what I thought I understood about wave degree.

Christian Gustafson said...

If we're approaching what I suspect is a significant turn, I guess I should post counts at all levels tonight so we can eyeball it and throw tomatoes all over the mess.

Stockboom said...

CG, I think BEARS are done now...technically, I don't see how this chart can go below 2100 forget about going below 2000....market is making new high day after day and everyone is trying to pick a top adding few more points!

T.Berry said...

brexit means more money for us markets which are safe haven compared to other global mkts. if more countries leave the eu more money for us markets. its good both short and long term. agree stockboom!

Sea legs said...

Hi CG, Found your site perhaps 3-4 months ago and have been very impressed.

Quick question though (and I realize that this to some degree is splitting hairs), but you have wave-e of the expanding wedge as a five count, but shouldn't it more correctly be an ABC?

Also, if C=A, then the target would be 2191, so barely a smidge from your (thumbs-up) target.

john said...

That's it, I've had enough of this all time high nonsense.
There is only one sure way to end this, that is if I buy stoxx, this baby is going down.
I warn you, I am the kiss of death investor, born to lose, and lose big.
I'm thinking some death incorporated stawks like raytheon, geeE, general dienamics, exxon morespill .
You have been given fair warning, Johnny is buying in, time to bust this bubble.
Have a nice weekend all! That is the only serious part.

Bryan Franco said...

John - I love the humility?

rose2797 said...

People who were saying correct to 1960. Now saying only 2000. And to 2350. Cpc .45. Fear greed 90. It is big sell. U less it is diff this time.

Bryan Franco said...

Readers that are interested in how our group performed in the first half of '16. Here is a link. Sorry for the weird looking URL as this is how our marketing campaigns look:

http://us6.campaign-archive1.com/?u=b73e590f99a83654953df8228&id=ffcc50e1d3

Bicycle said...

90-Year S&P 500, inflation-adjusted

Hugh Jazole said...

Bicycle, THAT is the chart to show the buy and hold crowd. We've gone NOWHERE in over a decade!

T.Berry said...

hugh, one must price ave & buy/hold. that wins 100%. in past decade (2006-2016) had you invested 100/month at the beginning of every month in etf spy total invested 12,900 value today 20,142 plus about $40.00 in divies collected over that time. about doubled your money using that no fail strategy

Hugh Jazole said...

T. Berry, how much more do things cost compared to 2006? Things like health care, college tuition, food, rent? The point of showing the inflation adjusted return, is to point out the fact that much of the gain went right out the window due to inflation.

T.Berry said...

not double hugh. what better investments do you recommend? hopefully not shorting this market because they have been getting pounding for the last 7 years. this bull is far from over i think. i doubt we'll see sub 2k again let alone a crazy sub 1k which the central banks will never let happen

Hugh Jazole said...

Health care costs have far outpaced inflation/market returns for 20+ years.

Christian Gustafson said...

Anyone notice we're above the 2SD weekly Bollinger Band SPX?

I popped in the DVD of "Midnight Express" last night to revisit the hot mess of our bestest NATO friend.

T.Berry said...

another close at lnsb

rose2797 said...

Cg your famous bradley turn date has arrived

rose2797 said...

Cg your famous bradley turn date has arrived

Christian Gustafson said...

Yes, it is tomorrow.

Where do you mark the target of this ascending/barrier triangle on the SPX from the last 4 or 5 days?

Christian Gustafson said...

The height of the ascending tri suggests a target of 2182.

After that ... a gravestone doji would be a welcome sight.

T.Berry said...

another close for the dji at lnsb (5th in a row). s&p took a breather before next lnsb :) . pullback imo will have to wait till after earnings if we do have one.

T.Berry said...

cg, a year from now >2400 : )

Christian Gustafson said...

I do think SPX 2235 or so into next week's FOMC meeting is possible.

It would be the short of a lifetime, you understand.

Bicycle said...

TED Spread

T.Berry said...

like that 2235 cg, feels like we're due for a nice breakout. once again we find the s&p at lnsb! and more to come :) even the elusive "mkt will NEVER see 2400" lol

T.Berry said...

disagree with shorting the strongest bull market in history. many have been trying from s&p 1100

Christian Gustafson said...

Any touch of that blow-off trendline will do. It's at 2202 today and rising.

Hilsenrath does his part to play Lucy with the Fed football one more time.

He's indicating September. Unless, of course, the bottom falls out of the stock markets.

Hugh Jazole said...

Price to sales ratio new high.

http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price-to-sales



T.Berry said...
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T.Berry said...
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