Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Or even this?

With a megaphone 5th wave, very close to completion now.

SPX 07-13

18 comments:

Bryan Franco said...

CG - Not an EW expert. But is 4 a little out of proportion with 2? Can a non-diagonal triangle be a terminal wave?

Bryan Franco said...

Disregard first part of question. Never understood whether the second part could be true.

Christian Gustafson said...

Can a megaphone be a fifth? Triangles are supposed to be wave 4s and B waves.

But there are broadening tops, megaphones. How does this fit with a card?

Christian Gustafson said...

I mean count, not card. Posting from an iPod.

Depriv said...

Erm. Sorry, but this chart won't do. Exp. triangles are rare, but that's OK, everybody has favorites. But: even in an exp. triangle every move is a correction, however this one has at least two impulse ('c' and 'e').
Also, even if it's an expanding triangle, it should be taken as a correction, not a (finishing) motive. So '4' should be placed somewhere on its bottom (and then some fifth up).

For a Freestyle Elliott it's still not the best - I've seen charts where people counting backward (5-4-3-2-1), or mixed (1-a-2-b), or with negative numbers, or on the RSI chart only. So it lacks that ... quality what would made it really unique ;-)

Still, it has a grain of truth in it. That triangle-like thing is indeed there, and by my experience even a rare and/or irregular triangle means that a serious thrust is building up somewhere in the background.





Christian Gustafson said...

/es +18 or +20 just blew up the triangle anyway. Back to a parabolic e-d type move.

Volatilty ETFs are crushing their Bollingers on this move.

Depriv said...

A backtest or two would nicely confirm the triangle-likeness of the thing.

T.Berry said...

with earnings just starting up and coming in pretty good at least better than expected again , can't see any pullback for a while. nothing holding this market back now. worse case 5% to 2050 but more likely 3% to 2100 then back up to levels never seen before. long term it looks good. slow steady rise a good long term holder market to be in

Ken Barrows said...

C'mon, T. Berry. Earnings are ALWAYS better than expected. That's part of the game.

Bryan Franco said...

I am watching the emerging markets for clues. Things like fxi eem.. They have cup and handle breakouts or head and shoulder bottom breakouts. If they hold and don't put in another bull trap like they have liked to do the past 3 years, then we are really off to the races.

T.Berry said...

ken, disagree about earnings always better, but they have been for the past 7 years and the s&p outlook for 2017 is expected to be in double digits. and that kind of growth will continue to drive stocks at levels never seen before.

Ken Barrows said...

T Berry,

Profit growth has been going down. Are you claiming otherwise? If you're going to be optimistic, at least be factual.

T.Berry said...

ken---this is direct from the s&p site. profit outlook is pretty solid

"The prospect of sustained improvement in consumer discretionary revenue growth would also bode well for anticipated double-digit earnings growth throughout 2016 and even the healthier 14%-16% growth rate into 2017 according S&P Global Market Intelligence aggregate consensus earnings expectations data."

http://www.spcapitaliq.com/blog/despite-the-first-quarter-s-shaky-start-the-2016-financial-market-outlook-remains-constructive

i'll bet stocks are going higher through '17. imho we are in the strongest bull market in history

T.Berry said...

lets say we only finish '16 @ 2250 we could easily hit over 2400-2450 next year and possibly see 2500. secular bull markets last way more than 8 years :)

Christian Gustafson said...

I'd say that if AAPL can ever update their &*&^%#$$@ laptop line, then that should unleash pent-up demand for 8% GDP growth for many years, saving the Boomers from penury and want.

rose2797 said...

CG even you did not expect this. I think 1750 is probably dead in auust. wedge keeps on goingup

Depriv said...


As I see it now:
http://keptarhely.eu/view.php?file=20160715v00j84ohv.png

A variation would be if we about to get a fast 3/ii now (likely a flat of running flat), as kind of backtest for that triangle-like thing CG noticed.

Depriv said...

The megaphone-backtest variation
http://keptarhely.eu/view.php?file=20160715v00jwmlu8.png