Wednesday, December 28, 2016


It sure looks like a failed 5th wave at SPX 2273.  I have us heading down to the 2035-2040 area on the SPX into the week of the Ascension of Donald John Trump.

Need some more spooky red candles in the days ahead.

The real fun begins February 1st when the Fed moneylenders shank and turn out the new fish on the cell block.  Then we will cross the 20% mark off the highs (1820 SPX) that declares the arrival of the Bear.

SPX 60 day with Bear count

Monday, December 26, 2016

In case the markets fall apart in 2017

I had better post these charts now before things get moving.

We have a couple of days left for the funds to mark-to-market for 2016 bonuses.  Then the selling can commence at long last.  The triangle on the S&P back in November was a B-wave.

The count since the 1810 lows is a mess, but there is an interesting symmetry if we can make a high at 2301 SPX this week.

After that, who cares.  Maybe it all comes off in the coming calendar year.  Everything.


Sunday, December 18, 2016

Anatomy of a thrift-store score

Just returned from my neighborhood Value Village this Sunday morning.  See if you can guess what I found.

It's an 8'6" Montague Flash bamboo fly rod from the 1940s!  It comes with a tough canvas case, and an extra tip section.  All ferrules and guides are rock solid.  I have modern Orvis reels and line that match its weight.

Whoever donated this rod, whoever's grandfather's estate this came from, out there in the aether, please know that I will give it loving care and maintenance, and that this rig will catch fish again, as soon as this next year.

I started tossing and tying the dry fly in the Midwest in my youth, catching bluegills and the occasional bass.  Once I could drive, I could get north of Green Bay to cold water streams like the Oconto River, to chase rainbow trout and stalk browns.  Now I live in the western WA, where the world is my oyster.  I think I could even catch oysters with this thing.

But I never thought I could own a bamboo rod, which new today cost as much as a used car.  Have we turned a new corner in Trump's America?  I think so.

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

No shorting until Christmas

Well, just after Christmas.  FOMC excitement today was just part of a 4th wave retrace, which has room to run into this Friday.

C wave channel has us rolling over right at the 2300 mark on the SPX when we return from the Christmas break.  Bonuses will be secured, so what will be the point of lingering a moment longer in the bourse?

We may have a President Trump formally set by then, but his plans for massive fiscal stimulus may be DOA.  And then how in the world will we create fresh new debt and credit-money to keep the great ponzi going?

Merry Christmas!

SPX final ABC to new highs

Sunday, December 11, 2016

Friday, December 9, 2016

The best the bears can hope for ...

... would be a draw down into FOMC -- obvious rate hike -- and massive short-squeeze to finish the year.

But such a move would complete 5 waves of a megaphone C.

Wednesday, December 7, 2016

End of December

That's about the next window to look for a "candidate top".  Oh, there have been so many!

The Fed hike next week is completely expected and will only retrace a bit of this final rally, taking us up again into year-end and the December New Moon.

Some day this war's gonna end.  And we will be there when it does.

SPX December snooze

Saturday, December 3, 2016

Charts 12-03: Italian referendum weekend

The ECB announced on Monday that in the event of the Italy referendum failing this weekend, that they would be ready to keep things stable with increased bond purchases.  So the market has been sanguine about this all week.  We haven't seen the march into hedges like VIX calls and volatility ETFs that preceded the Brexit vote.

the Fred Beckey

A "no" vote on the referendum essentially is the true beginning of the end of the EU, so I suspect that the reaction will not be so muted.  Of course, we don't want to see a lock-limit down on the overnight /ES Sunday, but a 30-handle gap open to the 2161 area of SPX would work nicely.  We would then sell off the entire week, eventually reaching an interim low at the December FOMC, for a couple of weeks of Santa rally.

But the larger goal for the next couple of months is to cross the big pink megaphone, then bounce into Spring with a phi retrace and backtest of the old rally channel.

Since the Donald won't be using the legacy media during his reign, I have added a free plug-in for his Twitter feed down the left panel.  A couple of ads are tacked onto the block, the impressions of which benefit the authors of the plug-in and not this blog.

I still can't believe that the financial press has advanced the idea that Trump spending will be inflationary.  If anything, you could start with the idea that they are taking a fiscal instead of a monetary route in all of this.  But the results will be the same, inescapable debt-deflation and an eventual spiral.  Globalism was the last act in a grand effort to expand credit, by exporting inflation throughout the world.  There is simply no easy or safe way to dismantle what we have built here.

SPX 12-03

Thursday, November 24, 2016

Now we chill out waiting for the reversal

We hit the top of the big megaphone, we're still hearing this stupid narrative that $1T of infrastructure spending now will somehow give us inflation, after all we have thrown up in desperation thus far.  Of course, the inflation already happened, over decades, so to expect it now is just insipid or deceptive.

At some point the headline makers will figure out that Trump's infrastructure gambit is an effort to trade debt for concrete things (as opposed to financial industry graft), while we still can.

The 35-year bond bull has reached its terminus.  Now we get to experience reality again!

Once we go, all the chart destinations for support and resistance fall into place.  The Italy referendum is the next big hurdle.  Burn down the disco.


Thursday, November 17, 2016

Charts 11-17

We need a big Friday to make our topping target -- 2236 SPX -- by next Tuesday or early Wednesday.
Czech lives matter!

Wednesday's Durables number announces the next recession.

"We Are the People"

Saturday, November 12, 2016

Best. Week. Ever.

We welcome the new Age of Trump as he takes his rightful place as Emperor of All Mankind.  It will be a true golden age, ripe at last for shorting bloated equities into the dirt and taking profits in a wheelbarrow.

At last, the era of Trump deflation is at hand!

The RUT, SPX, NDX, DJIA are gyrating in different directions as we register the instability building as a confirmed "Hindenburg Omen".  At last we have the setup for a final all-time high on the S&P 500, with plausible areas of support and resistance all the way down.  There are some sweet trades ahead, folks.

SPX daily 1Y

For now, if you voted Trump/Pence this week, even if your vote was wasted because you live among Bolsheviks, pat yourself on the back and enjoy, enjoy the delicious misery of the Left.

Schadenfreude is a beautiful thing.

In 10 weeks Trump will be Lord and Master of the Free World!

Tuesday, November 8, 2016

The World-Historical Mission of Donald J. Trump

And it's all over ... Donald J. Trump has been elected the 45th President of these United States of America.  Thankfully, the sharp personal contrasts during the campaign spared us from technocratic debates about plans and policy, with the CBO weighing in occasionally to vet the numbers of one "plan" or another.

Because narrow policy does not matter.  At the end of the Long Credit Cycle, policy is nothing.  Soon enough we will be at the mercy of the forces of wild nature in the bond markets, the lifeblood of our abstracted civil society.

The deflationary spiral is a feature, not a bug.  Our money came to us ex nihilo, and back there it shall go, as debt-defaults mount and Irving Fisher's nightmare is realized.  The strategy to prop up asset values until growth and animal spirits return is a terrible failure.  Now we have to face the consequences of the even greater malinvestment of capital than before, and the experience will be brutal.

The object, the great task, the World-Historical Mission of Donald J. Trump is to keep the United States whole, to maintain its order and integrity as we pass through the great crisis of Kondratieff winter on the credit cycle.  Debts that cannot be paid -- won't be paid -- and that includes perks like Social Security, defined-benefit plans, pensions, your bank account.  They are all dust, as we will learn soon enough.  Guess what -- Donald already understands this, he knows we are dead broke.

Trump is in Abraham Lincoln's shoes now; his job is to preserve the Union, to reassert the Republic, and to enable us to survive as a nation.  Debt-deflation will trigger a monetary collapse and final implosion of the fiat $USD, causing widespread disorder and the destruction of many of our institutions.

Browse the S&P 500 for a moment.  How many of these debt-burdened companies will survive such an event?  How about you?  How will you manage?  What are your plans?

Specialization and the division of labor are an easy bet that works out well most of the time.  But when things go sideways, you're left hanging as a cog in the Great Machine.  There is no nice way to unwind modernity -- see James Howard Kunstler's novels for an idea of what that might be like.

There is another system after the 20th Century experiment in debt-backed money, maybe even an older, more honest and real one that we left behind.  We may get there, if we are lucky, after the current system collapses.  Donald Trump's sacred duty is to shepherd us through this coming Time of Troubles, to keep our once great nation intact, whole, and secure as it passes from empire.



Thursday, November 3, 2016

Maybe Trump just confirms the New Bear Market

Something occurred to me today, when the Donald Trump indicated a Goldman Yalie for Treasury Secretary, that maybe his election won't actually crash the markets right away.

Maybe they will actually try to make it work for a bit.  It will be very bearish in the short-term, and work into a larger decline with the rate hike coming in the December FOMC.  But there are all sorts of support levels on the chart now, so we might as well use them.  

Tomorrow morning, expecting that we will bounce off the 200DMA SPX and rally into Election Day this Tuesday.  A Trump win confirms the bear and starts chopping us lower to a bottom around 1980 SPX the week of Thanksgiving.  

The larger drama plays out through 2017 and into 2018.  Not having World War III is actually comparatively quite bullish.  Final low at the long-term trendline from 1987 (year).


Thursday, October 27, 2016

Failing? Rolling over?

A bad GDP print in the morning could gap us down below 2100 on the S&P.  This will be our first peek at the Q3 number.

/ES futures daily
R2K futures daily

AMZN got shanked in the AH session today on poor earnings.  Maybe they have hired just too many expensive people there, jacking up the median Seattle downtown 1-BR rent to $2,350/mo lately.

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

If we can't break out, we may fail hard at the 50 DMA

There is a very plausible count for this, and I believe it would sync with a smoking-gun release from Julian Assange's Wikileaks organization over the weekend.

The release would disqualify Hillary from higher office and usher in Donald Trump to White House.

The markets will not take this well.

And then the Fed will pile on in December with a 50 bps Christmas present to welcome the Donald to Washington, D.C.

SPX 1Y daily big-picture view
SPX 30D view of the proposed E-D failed 5th

Sunday, October 23, 2016

Time to break out of this eternal sideways

We have a New Moon next weekend.  If we're going to put up new highs before Election Day, now would be the time to do it.  We made the .382 retrace for W4 at 2114 SPX, and have drawn a plausible A and B of W5 since then.  A spicy enough C wave could easily make our target this week.

Let the craven MSM declare Hillary up by 20 points with their faked and flawed polls, and Wall Street can follow-through for them.  I still believe that that awful harpy will fall before Election Day, either by her own failing health or a checkmate from the brave and formidable Julian Assange.

Good luck to all ...

SPX 30d

Thursday, October 13, 2016

Wikileaks plan for Hillary

This is so specific that we should know soon enough if it is authentic.

Good show, Mr. Assange!  Very well done, sir!

Wikileaks goodness

Tuesday, October 11, 2016

Let's finish the big E-D into the last debate

Wall Street isn't going to abandon Hillary here, they're going all the way.  Never mind that Trump is going to accuse her of High Treason in the debate next week ... and she might not make it through the evening.

We still have a 5th wave up left in this tragedy, and then we can blow it all up.  Fed hikes in December and at the end of January, 2017.


Thursday, September 29, 2016

Did we fail a 5th wave today?

It's too soon to tell; we have to break down through a few supports to confirm it.  But the Deutsche Bank AG fun is the real deal.  Maybe all the dogshit bonds Michael Lewis sold those guys in Liars Poker are finally coming due.

We ought to know in a few days, and I'll post the chart.  I'm thinking we can get as low as 830 SPX by the end of the year.  830 is the trendline between the 1987 and 2009 crash lows, and we'll get there in a tidy five-wave impulse, IMO.

Manfred Zimmel - Bradley model turns 2016

Visit Manfred Zimmel at

Monday, September 26, 2016

Is it time yet for a blow-off move into EOQ?

From what I can tell, Hillary did not seize up tonight or even die on stage, so this counts as a good night for her.  With Fed doves speaking all week, some multiple times, we can now expect a strong move north.

I see it as a final thrust in an expanding wedge, a vertically-oriented megaphone, that can bring us to new all-time highs before the week is out.  After that, anything can blow up and end the party, as early as this Thursday with the final Q2 GDP read.  We could also hold out until the Friday close, so everyone can get paid before the weekend.

SPX 30D hourly

Over the weekend I hiked the 43-mile Devil's Dome Loop in the Pasayten Wilderness here in WA, and I can report that it is gorgeous.  Heaven on Earth, really.  But please don't move here.

Devil's Ridge Trail #752

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Charts 9-20: Drag on into the Election?

Hilsenrath published the plan for this Fall -- indeed, no rate hikes (planned, of course) until the December FOMC meeting.

This means that the only market event of any significance at all until then is the actual Election Day on November 8th.

Here is the ending-diagonal we have been following, with the final high coming on Tuesday, November 8.  It suggests that the wave 4 we have been in since the 2193 SPX high is more of a channel, with the .382 retrace coming late next week, on the final Q2 GDP number.

This much time on the clock ought to get UVXY under $10 again, what a destroyer.

SPX 09-20

Monday, September 12, 2016

Charts 9-12: Updated short-term count

Even with the big upswing today, I suspect we are still in a correction.  Here's the count.