Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Charts 9-20: Drag on into the Election?

Hilsenrath published the plan for this Fall -- indeed, no rate hikes (planned, of course) until the December FOMC meeting.

This means that the only market event of any significance at all until then is the actual Election Day on November 8th.

Here is the ending-diagonal we have been following, with the final high coming on Tuesday, November 8.  It suggests that the wave 4 we have been in since the 2193 SPX high is more of a channel, with the .382 retrace coming late next week, on the final Q2 GDP number.

This much time on the clock ought to get UVXY under $10 again, what a destroyer.

SPX 09-20

23 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

The bounce on the chart on 12/14 means that they won't hike in December, either.

Bryan Franco said...

TP gets elected. Bondmaggedon resumes regardless of what the Fed does.

Bryan Franco said...

The whole monetary experiment could have worked if there was equal aggressiveness on the fiscal side. There wasn't. And that is a failure of the Obama administration. This is perhaps the only devil-advocating verbiage you will get from me in defense of the Fed. Otherwise, I welcome smart fiscal expansion from our new fierceless leader. King Trump. May it be so.

Bicycle said...

san francisco real estate lol:

condo tower sinking into the sand

peter thiel's house won't sell

Bicycle said...

can we get back above 2200 by Monday's close, that's all I want...

Bicycle said...

if trump starts to pull seriously far ahead in the polls before Nov voting day... we can possibly see an emergency fed meeting and hike, let's say 50-100 bps coming on a weekend or week-night. Scare the sheeple

Bicycle said...

the spread of million dollar homes in SF bay area

T.Berry said...

yellen right again. rate hike in dec then s&p 8-9% higher in the following 8-9 months just like last time. s&p 2400+ coming in '17. said it before, we'll likely never see a stronger secular bull market than the one we're in now.

Christian Gustafson said...

Short-term bear case looks pretty well rekd here ... so ... have we started wave 5 up?

Will we get a final high next week, into EOQ3 and the important Q2 final GDP release a week from now?

Bicycle said...

this is the 5th

final high by Monday close

Christian Gustafson said...

Bicycle, you are suggesting an inflection point off the first POTUS debate, yes?

Did you guys ever see the movie "Brazil", when the protagonist's mother's many layers of extensive plastic-surgery all come undone at once? Monday night.

T.Berry said...

oh not another final high lol

Christian Gustafson said...

A move like that would not be to trash Mr. Trump, it would be the Fed acknowledging the inevitability of his triumph, and getting on with the business of defending the currency.

Bryan Franco said...

Monday is a gap test/failure. And a Fifth wave epic fail

Bicycle said...

Yes, failure on the debate results.

Tomorrow is Autumnal Equinox. First day of fall in the Northern Hemisphere. By the Oct 16 Full Moon/Supermoon things will be all kinds of messed up.

Permabear Doomster said...

CG, WHY would it stop in the sp'2200s?

I see a number of world markets suggestive of gains of 30-50% before the next bear market.

Watch the monthly close.... not just for the US, but as many other world markets as you have time for.
--

yours, awaiting President Trump

Depriv said...

@Permabear Doomster, "WHY would it stop in the sp'2200s?"

There are two candidates for the first wave of this trend: 1210 in 2010/04 and 1370 in 2011/05
The targets calculated from these first waves are ~ 2140 and 2450
I think it'll be the letter, but actually the current level around 2200 is not yet decisive, we need more confirmation for the higher target. The pattern what CG drawing is a possibility at this point.

Let the events run their own course.

About Trump: the more I think about that ... phenomenon the more I think that between the candidates Trump is the more progressive on long run, on his special way. Both party would screw it up, but if it's Trump, then it would at least break the deadlock, while the other one would just make more years lost with legs nailed down.
Sometimes the idiots must be shown.

Bicycle said...

## CG, WHY would it stop in the sp'2200s?
## I see a number of world markets suggestive of gains of 30-50% before the next bear market.

If all other currencies are crushed in a mad rush for US dollars that is exactly what will happen. It clearly wouldn't mean that US markets will follow. As an example, the DJU is up against epic resistance that is deeply unlikely to be broken, and it has never not correlated with major inflection points in the main US indicies, especially on an inflation adjusted basis.

Christian Gustafson said...

Hillary having a vapor-lock in the bright lights on Monday will change everything overnight.

There is a reason that Wall Street is nearly unanimous in their support of her. She will ladle on more gravy, feed the usury mills, stoke up the QE as long as it will hold out.

Trump knows we are bankrupt. He knows the debt cannot be paid, so a Trump Administration is much more likely to see real progress in the form of a collapse of the Treasury monster. May it ever be so.

Ken Barrows said...

Isn't Trump a "debt guy?" He may know the debt cannot be paid, but I think his call for more defense spending and tax cuts is a Reaganesque ploy to postpone the day of reckoning.

Bryan Franco said...

Ken. The debt is never meant to be paid. But it is "money spent", and it at least has direct economic impact. Totally different than the money-center bank injections that the Feds around the world are involved in. That money isn't finding its way to the right people. Trump gets this huge misallocation. He'll pick his poison. He'll pick Treasury over Fed. Markets will tank, but the real economy will start to benefit, and set us on track longer-term.

john said...

Markets will tank.....a generation of 401ks and MBS go poof, everybody benefits? I agree he knows we're broke but the second coming of RayGun will not save the petro peso.

Bryan Franco said...

We might have had our 5f... G-d willing