Thursday, September 29, 2016

Did we fail a 5th wave today?

It's too soon to tell; we have to break down through a few supports to confirm it.  But the Deutsche Bank AG fun is the real deal.  Maybe all the dogshit bonds Michael Lewis sold those guys in Liars Poker are finally coming due.

We ought to know in a few days, and I'll post the chart.  I'm thinking we can get as low as 830 SPX by the end of the year.  830 is the trendline between the 1987 and 2009 crash lows, and we'll get there in a tidy five-wave impulse, IMO.

Manfred Zimmel - Bradley model turns 2016

Visit Manfred Zimmel at http://www.amanita.at.

15 comments:

Hugh Jazole said...

It seems like everyone took the failed 5th possibility off the table a while back. I realize you didn't of course, but most other blogs I follow dropped the idea. Any of you guys want to go in on one of these beauties? Notice the "trumpocalypse" in the URL.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/bunker-builders-anticipate-lucrative-trumpocalypse-932748


Bryan Franco said...

I am on record early this week proposing failed 5th. May it be so.

Christian Gustafson said...

Bryan's fault (if it happens).

New Moon tonight.

Bryan Franco said...

Not looking likely at this point.

Christian Gustafson said...

Bryan --

If we gap down Monday, would you call that an island top (with July 8 gap up)?

Bryan Franco said...

Yes. And the key thing here is that we don't hover near the highs. We need choppy down or gap down asap

Christian Gustafson said...

Diamond-top visible on daily /es? Breakdown would be the 5th wave failure to reach a new high.

Bryan Franco said...

I had the same thought. FWIW

Christian Gustafson said...

Or even an island top with symmetry to July 8th.

T.Berry said...

with earnings coming up, look for new LNSB :) can't see mkt going down during earnings hasn't happened in long time. mkts look like their wanting to go higher possibly much higher . this secular bull market is far from over.doesn't matter who's pres, in a year market is going to be higher than today. : )

Hugh Jazole said...

OK, you guys are smart. How do you explain todays UVXY action?

Christian Gustafson said...

We would say that the VOLs are not confirming the price action ... at all.

Hugh Jazole said...

Essential red pill reading.

http://rexresearch.com/articles/ocultech.htm


T.Berry said...

mkt gave a taste of what's to come after a hrc victory next month. : )

Buffett Junior said...

What do you mean?