Tuesday, November 8, 2016

The World-Historical Mission of Donald J. Trump


And it's all over ... Donald J. Trump has been elected the 45th President of these United States of America.  Thankfully, the sharp personal contrasts during the campaign spared us from technocratic debates about plans and policy, with the CBO weighing in occasionally to vet the numbers of one "plan" or another.

Because narrow policy does not matter.  At the end of the Long Credit Cycle, policy is nothing.  Soon enough we will be at the mercy of the forces of wild nature in the bond markets, the lifeblood of our abstracted civil society.

The deflationary spiral is a feature, not a bug.  Our money came to us ex nihilo, and back there it shall go, as debt-defaults mount and Irving Fisher's nightmare is realized.  The strategy to prop up asset values until growth and animal spirits return is a terrible failure.  Now we have to face the consequences of the even greater malinvestment of capital than before, and the experience will be brutal.

The object, the great task, the World-Historical Mission of Donald J. Trump is to keep the United States whole, to maintain its order and integrity as we pass through the great crisis of Kondratieff winter on the credit cycle.  Debts that cannot be paid -- won't be paid -- and that includes perks like Social Security, defined-benefit plans, pensions, your bank account.  They are all dust, as we will learn soon enough.  Guess what -- Donald already understands this, he knows we are dead broke.

Trump is in Abraham Lincoln's shoes now; his job is to preserve the Union, to reassert the Republic, and to enable us to survive as a nation.  Debt-deflation will trigger a monetary collapse and final implosion of the fiat $USD, causing widespread disorder and the destruction of many of our institutions.

Browse the S&P 500 for a moment.  How many of these debt-burdened companies will survive such an event?  How about you?  How will you manage?  What are your plans?

Specialization and the division of labor are an easy bet that works out well most of the time.  But when things go sideways, you're left hanging as a cog in the Great Machine.  There is no nice way to unwind modernity -- see James Howard Kunstler's novels for an idea of what that might be like.

There is another system after the 20th Century experiment in debt-backed money, maybe even an older, more honest and real one that we left behind.  We may get there, if we are lucky, after the current system collapses.  Donald Trump's sacred duty is to shepherd us through this coming Time of Troubles, to keep our once great nation intact, whole, and secure as it passes from empire.

30 comments:

johnElarue said...

Abraham Lincoln or Nero?

T.Berry said...

unbelievable, I sure got that wrong but In no way does this mean the bull market is over. many compare this to brexit-----well, the ftse is up 10% since brexit passed just 5months ago. I don't think u.s. investors have much to worry about. trump isn't going to crash the market. the futures are almost 60pts off lows major reversal

Bryan Franco said...

Ftse up because brexit isn't really happening.. Look who they put in to stop it., that May person .. Former Bank of England shill

Hugh Jazole said...

Not seeing the collapse, or a wall. I would love to see rates normalized, and government spending reined in big time. The market won't like that one bit. We'll see if he delivers on even those.

Bryan Franco said...

Bonds collapsing

Permabear Doomster said...

Congratulations.
--

:)

Depriv said...

Geez, this is why I don't like the amateur FA speculations. So full with emotions. Like one continuously cornering himself, without any hope for consolidation or self-reflection.

Compared to that, TA is way better.
There was Brexit-doom. Charts recovered within days.
Here is the Trump-doom. Charts (futures, SP specifically) looks like nothing ever happened so far, the 'collapse' barely hold for half day this time.

Will be there collapses? Yes. They are parts of the system, no way around them.
Will there be a collapse NOW? Possible, but at this moment the long term charts are about a strong bull momentum.

Chill, keep cool and drink one more beer.

T.Berry said...

from s&p -105 to just -20 what a reversal may possibly even see a green close. trump isn't going to upset this bull. too strong plus a good chance he intro's an epic size 1T+ infrastructure spending package that will really boost the economy and mkts.

T.Berry said...

biggest s&p reversal ever? but again never been a stronger bull mkt in history. going to be picking up some CAT today for the long haul. spend Donald spend! lol

Christian Gustafson said...

Pavlov market? Lazarus market?

Who knew limit-down on the /ES futures could be so bullish.

Bonds ... 10Y near 2% yield

Hugh Jazole said...

CG, how do you feel about Freemasonry?

George said...

Good thing they got in there so fast and uninstalled the ClintonHighSpeedTrading package and installed the TrumpHighSpeedTrading package. Kudos to those overnight IT guys.

T.Berry said...

wonder if the Donald has his dow19k hat ready LOL. less than 1% from all time levels never seen before. who would of thunk :)

feels like next leg up in this secular is underway.

Christian Gustafson said...

T. Berry -- this is called the "E" leg.

Watch out for divergences.

T.Berry said...

hope that presents a buying dip cg. as I've said, i'm in for long haul with no plans on selling for 10_+ years. the mkts should be more than doubled by then. and this bull isn't even 8 years old. i'm just shocked at how much and powerful this new rally is given trump won. I was hoping we'd pull down first but looks like we'll see levels never seen before on the dji's close today. I believe he will use a massive (1 trillion+/year)multi-year infrastructure program to create the jobs he said he'd create

the s&P may have marked a trump bottom Tuesday night at 2030. I won't be surprised is we ever see it below that again.

Hugh Jazole said...

Maybe your 2232 SPX call last month was a little early?

Christian Gustafson said...

Absolutely, Hugh!

It looks like we finally have the gas to make it up there, 2235 spx area.

Zoom out. See the big megaphone since 2014 (year)? McHugh would call this the Jaws of Death. It's a massive broadening top.

Christian Gustafson said...

Also, we need another Hindenburg observation or two, and a giant breadth divergence, for this top to matter.

Italy referrendum Dec 6.

Hugh Jazole said...

We've got a decent breadth divergence now.

Bicycle said...

we also have a fairly significant breakout on the 10yr. equities are following that right now, not leading it. When TNX crests 3%, and equities have finally put in the E wave around 2250 area, that's when things get really, really interesting.

Trump asking for $1T infrastructure spend and 35% tariffs on imported products is very likely China's no mas moment on bonds.

We're headed from a world where you finance an iPhone with your federally backed student loan. To a world where you don't get a post secondary education with debt and if you want an iPhone you're going to have to make them. In the factory, on an assembly line in the Midwest or Southern US, with your own hands. And you still might not be able to afford it. The cash will be more valuable...

Bicycle said...

and at the current rate, we'll be at 3% TNX and S&P 2250 by the next FOMC in mid-December.

No one who thinks the Federal Reserve is actually in full control of the interest rate environment believes that the Fed will raise in December. They may be woefully incorrect this time.

Christian Gustafson said...

Where is social media in this world of yours, Bicycle?

What about memes? Will we have to make our own?

Bicycle said...

you be quiet. if I catch you posting to SJWbook while the line is operating I'm going to feed you through the press.

Hugh Jazole said...

Jamie Dimon? LOL!

T.Berry said...

our bull just flexing it's muscles to show the strength it has even with any headwind a trump presidency could possibly bring. proving once again, this is the strongest bull market in history. dji could be up 1000 in the don's first week. :) loving CAT!

once again, at levels never seen before with plenty of air above no telling how high we go on this run

Bryan Franco said...

Growth hysteria seems terribly overpriced.

GSF said...

Sorry guys, but the Kondratieff Wave affects can be postponed, but it cannot be stopped. We are in the "Winter Season". Also, the real estate cycle also tells us what is coming. 2008 +18 year real estate cycle is 2026.

Go ahead. Put it on your calendar.

Christian Gustafson said...

Hindenburg Omen yesterday. That's two observations now -- so we're in the window.

Christian Gustafson said...

More sobering thoughts.

Hugh Jazole said...

"Constantine reunited the Roman Empire briefly, and managed to solidify it for a couple decades" This is where we are IMHO. We MAY be able to squeeze another decent decade out of this rusting, leaking ship. After that you do NOT want to be living in a major city. Take a look at Portland, now imagine that being every major city in the country. Take a look at these mugshots. Many of these, ahem "humans" will be having children. An even more degraded form of creature than themselves.

http://www.oregonlive.com/portland/index.ssf/2016/11/mugshots_ids_released_of_25_ar.html