Thursday, November 3, 2016

Maybe Trump just confirms the New Bear Market

Something occurred to me today, when the Donald Trump indicated a Goldman Yalie for Treasury Secretary, that maybe his election won't actually crash the markets right away.

Maybe they will actually try to make it work for a bit.  It will be very bearish in the short-term, and work into a larger decline with the rate hike coming in the December FOMC.  But there are all sorts of support levels on the chart now, so we might as well use them.  

Tomorrow morning, expecting that we will bounce off the 200DMA SPX and rally into Election Day this Tuesday.  A Trump win confirms the bear and starts chopping us lower to a bottom around 1980 SPX the week of Thanksgiving.  

SPX 1Y
The larger drama plays out through 2017 and into 2018.  Not having World War III is actually comparatively quite bullish.  Final low at the long-term trendline from 1987 (year).

SPX 5Y

16 comments:

John said...

It is all cool--this post along with the recent court ruling in the UK confirms:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/if-voting-changed-government-it-would-be-made-illegal/

Bryan Franco said...

Seasonality wise this is better. We can't have too steep a sell off in December statistically. Better to have in November from an odds perspective.

Hugh Jazole said...

DJT signaling a face ripper into the election?

Hugh Jazole said...

They're going to slather as much lipstick on this pig as they can.

Hugh Jazole said...

Look for gas prices to drop like a rock, only to scream higher after the election.

T.Berry said...

think we set up for a major rally starting next week after hrc take the election. she will intro a mega infrastructure spending bill that will liff the economy to new heights. if you think stocks are high now, wait a year and see how much higher they'll be. sorry but the "crash of 16'" like the previous 7 will get pushed back to "next year" : ) LOL

Permabear Doomster said...

re Not having World War III is actually comparatively quite bullish.
-

Yes... indeed :)

yours... awaiting the Trump victory.

Christian Gustafson said...

Walked through the rain to file my Trump vote in Ballard this morning. How is that for personal agency?

Hugh Jazole said...

18 year old (stupid) me, walked a pretty good clip to cast my first ever vote for BILL CLINTON!! Sigh. Oh well, GHWB wasn't exactly a prize either.

T.Berry said...

expecting a big hrc victory rally,,, could start seeing it tomorrow too. sorry Donald : ) and julian lol

sooner said...

If HRC wins it will be due to voter/election fraud

http://pamelageller.com/2016/11/clinton-underground-child-sex-scandal-part-1.html/

Christian Gustafson said...

The Tom McClellan calls it for Trump.

Hugh Jazole said...

"DJT signaling a face ripper into the election?" Yep!

T.Berry said...

looks like mr mkt knows who the winner is. s&p heading to 3k. get ready for a couple of firsts, women president and dji 19k! : )

Hugh Jazole said...

Futures predicting a Trump win?

Christian Gustafson said...

I'm not watching tee vee tonight.

I'm watching /es.

Go Trump, go!!!!!!