Friday, December 9, 2016

The best the bears can hope for ...

... would be a draw down into FOMC -- obvious rate hike -- and massive short-squeeze to finish the year.

SPX
But such a move would complete 5 waves of a megaphone C.

11 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

Snowing hard in the Seattle.

That strong RSI on this blow-off rally must be respected.

Bryan Franco said...

Requires a new intermediate term high after whatever decline we have. Essentially in the spirit of what you already drawn.

T.Berry said...

revising dji 20,000 target to by year end (from original memorial day then easter) santa is coming . revise 2017 target to dji 23,000.

this bull only getting stronger. spend don spend. lol

Christian Gustafson said...

I'm guessing as to the market psychology for a current (very expected) rate hike, that shorts may pile on to their collective doom.

^IRX crossed the 50 bps level this morning. Maybe it's up to the early February FOMC to bring the shock and awe.

We just keep kickin' that can. 52bps and climbing ...

Permabear Doomster said...

CG. I can understand the count/outlook, and there is a fib' time turn of Feb.

However, what about copper or the breakout in financials, such as BAC?

Copper fell for 5yrs. That downward trend has concluded. It can be expected to see copper rally for some considerable time to come.

Same for financials. BAC stuck under the $18 threshold for 8 years. Its only just begun a grand up wave.
--

I wonder what you'll say if we're trading sp'3K with Dow 26k in late 2017/early 2018.

Neither do you ever mention other world markets. They offer clues as to where the US is headed.

Christian Gustafson said...

Copper is at long-term resistance.

Hugh Jazole said...

Caldero doubling down on the long term bull. Declares Trump will lead us into the next Golden Age.

Bicycle said...

Every person calling for some significant new highs far beyond where we are right now, needs to go spend a lot of time staring at the channels on the chart of the 90 year historical inflation-adjusted S&P 500.

Because if you think we are heading significantly higher from here, you are calling for inflation adjusted levels in the indices that are literally double from where we are right now. Confident in that call??? There is literally nothing but air between here and the next upward level of resistance.

There is currently STRONG resistance here going all the way back to the inflation-adjusted 1960's top. That won't be so easily broken given that we've failed to pierce it again twice already in the past 10 years. A third failure will send us south quickly.

I won't even bring up the fact that the Nasdaq has put in an E-wave major top on an inflation adjusted basis. And in just the past few days.

This is a super dangerous place to be wrong, no matter what happens.

Bicycle said...

The symmetry of that chart, if you can appreciate such a thing, practically demands a new test of the bottom trend before another test of the top.

A bottoming on the bottom trend, probably somewhere around the year 2030. A year completely coincident with the year Martin Armstrong has been calling for a significant bottom, for, oh, over a decade now.

Every 70-80 years, a touch of the top channel trend. 1920's, late 1990's, 2080-ish. People who have young children, they will be kings and queens--into their golden old age years.

Every 50 years, a touch of the bottom channel trend. 1930, 1980, 2030. And again in 2080.

Wait, what? Year 2080 is a top and a bottom?

2080 touch of the top channel trend will mark E-wave up complete in this channel. Because of that, the collapse will be total, sending us to the bottom of the channel in one of the greatest collapses of all human history, in the very same time frame. And probably south out of the channel for good. The 300th anniversary of the founding of the USA will be marked by something quite momentous.

Hugh Jazole said...

"This is a super dangerous place to be wrong, no matter what happens." I agree. It's interesting that Caldero was calling for a trip down to 1120 a short time ago. He said the only thing that would change his mind would be new highs. I personally don't understand how the new highs have officially taken a bearish scenario off the table. In the short run, I don't plan on changing my strategy of looking for small/low risk trading opportunities. My strategy has lagged the market YTD. I'm up about 6% vs. 10+, but I did this with putting a VERY small amount of money at risk.

Bryan Franco said...

HJ. That is my approach. Look like goats now, but the process matches the market over long term, and kills it on a risk adjusted basis... And the latter is the more important metric because, well, you never know...