So where are we now in the count?

We want to see more pullback in the end of Q2, finding support at the 2400 level on the S&P 500.

a rare U-Haul camper, Crown Hill, Seattle, WA

From there, we hit the next Bradley turn for the final (?) 5th wave up.  Along the way we want to see continued market optimism, with divergences in breadth and $VIX if we can manage it.  A few more Hindenburg Omen days would add to the drama, as well.

SPX 60D E-D count

This next chart is based on various support trendlines and their co-incidence with 2017 Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meetings ... let's call it "policy pinball".

SPX 2Y

Beware the Ides of March?

Short-term SPX is looking at an expanding-wedge pattern that could blow-off upward in a very violent fashion.

This would reach resistance at 2440 as soon as late in the session Tuesday, like so:

SPX 60d

The response post-FOMC and renewed fiscal crisis, looks like this:

SPX 2y

And the long term count since the 2009 (year) lows:

SPX 10y

We are due for a RYFO rally to start 2016

UVXY was the tell on New Year's Eve -- there is still no fear at all.

I think the market still has a savage burn ready to go comparable to the one we had coming off the August 24 lows.  All shorts must go!

SPX 01-01-2016

A sharp decline over the rest of January will setup a beautiful head-and-shoulders that will send us hurtling toward 1600 into mid-March.

After that, it's every man for himself, and NIRP for all by June.

SPX 01-01 2Y

The Fed will panic and go all-in.

Cheers to a good 2016.

Charts 02-18: Get dressed for the big dance

The waves are lining up for a top in the mid-2120s next week just before the final Greek double-secret probation deadline arrives.  With a plausibly-complete wave count and the upper Bollinger Band on the daily SPX within reach, it may be time to get our war face on like old von Mackensen here.

Anton Ludwig August von Mackensen

The short-term SPX count seems clear enough.  Waves 1 and 3 each took 4-5 days.

SPX 02-18

This gives us a sharp drop back to support at 1972 SPX, followed by a kissback rejection of the old 2-4 trendline and a harder fall to 1820.  

SPX 02-18 6M

Today's notes suggest that the Fed will NOT raise rates at the April meeting, bouncing us back up toward SPX 2000.  We must keep a very close watch on the yield of the 13-week Treasury bill during this period for clues that the Fed will raise at the June meeting.  There's another channel kissback/rejection opportunity around 1985 SPX.

That would drop us to the next level of support around 1530 SPX.  A crash in September would finish the 3PDH retrace back below 1100 SPX.

SPX 02-18 10Y

VIX is setting up well for a low against its lower Bollinger Band and a support trendline that has been running for a while.

VIX 02-18

Charts 06-18: All 3PDH All The Time

Probably go short on Friday -- 1963 SPX?

SPX 06-18

1Y

2Y

4Y

One of my favorites

Here is a debt-trap on busy 105th Street in N Greenwood that has been on the market for many months.  I love this one.  In the flyer, we learn that it is a "craftsman", when to me it just looks like they stapled a couple of cross-beams on the eves.

The kicker is the mess they have made of the yard, probably justifies a lawsuit against HGTV.  They put in a slab patio with these horrid giant ceramic tubs, with oversized bamboo poles sticking out the top.  What's funny has been watching this disaster sit on the market, and the bamboo poles weather and age!  

I walk by it on my way to donate blood every few weeks.  If you're in good health, you should donate blood, too.