Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Charts 06-18: All 3PDH All The Time

Probably go short on Friday -- 1963 SPX?

SPX 06-18
1Y
2Y
4Y

21 comments:

Bryan Franco said...

I took a quick glance. Are you showing nested 3PDHs? Good Lord! I've never even heard of that. May it be so!

Yield curve has been flattening. Where is Dr. Copper in all this? I just can't get on the bull bandwagon, because i don't see how they get out of this without inflation. Growing Disconnect.. and growing, and growing.

Christian Gustafson said...

FWIW, I am showing nested 3PDH, yeah.

Now we just need dual point #23s, and the rest of the patterns fall into place nicely.

And remember, 2014 would be only "A" down of the larger move back to the 2002-2009 lows trendline, which completes in time for Martin Armstrong's 2015.75 cycle low and the collapse of Treasurys and the $USD.

I do really like how the critical support level of 1737 or so lines up perfectly with EOM July FOMC and the GDP figure. I'll buy that dip.

Bicycle said...

This was in the comments in Steve's blog:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLCsMRr7hAg

One of the themes was the guy was saying that China is pricing the rest of the world out of oil (and a reason why US consumption is falling), and that the next wave of it will probably come in the next 18 months (which lines right up with Steve's triangle).

Basically the guy was saying that China can afford to crowd the rest of us out of the oil market much faster than we realize. That basically conventional oil has been in decline, and while our shale and other unconventional has been picking up the slack, all of the slack production got consumed by China. If their growth trend continues or our production growth falters they will price the rest of the world out of oil in short order.

It's long but worth a watch.

That nested 3PDH tho...

Christian Gustafson said...

Yeah, I guess I have three Big Themes now here in the Deflation Land:

1. The dual-nested 3PDH resolves itself in 2014.

2. 10Y Treasury headed under 1% to complete the epic bond bull.

3. "Twin crashes" -- 2014 is only the "A" wave of the collapse of equities.

sooner said...

You'll be violating Norseman's "don't short a market making new highs" rule ?

Christian Gustafson said...

Someday this war's gonna end ...

Phat Repat said...

The market can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent. :-)

But it is crazy.

Bicycle said...

That new high in the Dow today is super depressing although we're still within the megaphone... until we absolutely blast through current levels we might just gradually float up that upper trendline.

Christian Gustafson said...

McClellan unchanged 2 days straight. Pressure building ...

Phat Repat said...

Dunno; gap down Monday and reload?

T.Berry said...

wouldn't consider a short before 2200. and then it would only be a quick one. be careful guys- this market is on straight line to 2k very soon---may take a couple years to see sub 1850..sub 1650 perhaps never..vix 9.? coming?

Permabear Doomster said...

re: vix 9.? coming?

calling for VIX 9s is about as bold as suggesting the sun will in the east tomorrow ;)
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I think 9s are due..and that will mark a multi-month floor.
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1970s look due on Mon/Tuesday.

T.Berry said...

lol PBD! the vix could hit an 8 handle but i was calling the guaranteed play. this mkt is way too strong for much of a pullback,,,folks want in not out. i see no reason to be selling at this point. the 55th top isn't in yet---lol! good luck to those thinking we ever drop below 1800 again.

Phat Repat said...

Well, though the week isn't over, if you took that short, congrats (assuming you didn't get stopped out due to that swing).

Christian Gustafson said...

I go away hiking near the US-Canada border for a few days, and I return to this fine intraday reversal ... on a Tuesday, no less.

This needs some sorting out. At least on the /ES, the upside looks done short-term here.

May the dualie point #23s be in at last! Good luck, bearz.

T.Berry said...

why anyone would short this market is crazy. what good reason is there? downside very limited to 1-3%. upside still has plenty of room. may get itch to around 2200 snp's for a bigger downside drop. i believe hft's are still programmed long and should be for some time to go. the bull has legs

T.Berry said...

feel like we won't see snp below 1900 for the balance of 2014. bicycles call for straight to 2200 looks like a winner. good luck to all

Bicycle said...

I am not calling for 2200 anymore...

Frankly I think today is another good chance to scale in short, if you are patient

Christian Gustafson said...

Oh, hehe, sorry, I haven't posted in a while.

Nothing much to do here for another couple of weeks -- the 7/16 Bradley turn window.

There's some good data out that week as well, including Chinese GDP and other industrial stats.

Fair question, which is more hokey, Bradley turns or Chinese econ stats. YMMV.

But there is a count and argument for the JPY to break out of its range as well. Will put something up tonight.

But certainly not putting on anything until we have a terminal pattern completing into a turn window here.

T.Berry said...

why the change bicycle? i look for 2500 sometime next year before first fed rate hike. only .25 but enough to spook mkt then they jawbone it back up. who could have imagined fed would have executed this move off 09 lows so well?

Permabear Doomster said...

Hey Deflationland...

Considering the price action.. and a collated group of those I follow... we might not be going below 1900 until next year.
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I'm guessing though, you're not on that train of thought.