Tuesday, June 17, 2014

Charts 06-17: Count for a 7/16 top

This would be an ending-diagonal ending with a final move towards SPX 2000 into the 7/16 major Bradley turn.  It would first get a bit more downside from tomorrow's FOMC than I think most are expecting.  That lower trendline needs to hold for a final move up.

SPX 06-17

Note also that the first move at the top may bounce off the 200 DMA. We need to do that before we go any further.  GLTA ...


Permabear Doomster said...

Hmm, the 1850s in late July...just about viable on the bigger weekly cycles..even if 1970/90 by mid July.

Market looks set to fall into the Q2 GDP data point.

... 1700s in Sept/Oct..most certainly viable.

christiangustafson said...

Post-FOMC ... 4th wave triangle here? Sideways and nowhere through the end of June, and then a final rally? Would disappoint both aggressive bulls and early bears.

christiangustafson said...

Nope ... no triangle ... but ... 3PDH get it ... will post tonight.

Bicycle said...

I want to short this close so badly and can't bring myself to do it. Not with another new high on the S&P. But the DOW... it is perched right on that megaphone, begging for the bear market of all times.

I am sure we will crash tomorrow :-/

christiangustafson said...

3PDH Bicycle ... nested 3PDHs ... they know ... they see ... will explain tonight, sir.

Hint -- can we make it all the way back to SPX 1737 by the next FOMC? Yeah, I actually think we can.

Let market/momo bulls enjoy their last days out in the sun. They earned it.

Permabear Doomster said...

re: can we make it all the way back to SPX 1737 by the next FOMC?

No.. that is NOT possible.

It would too far below the lower weekly bollinger, and we have NOT had a down cycle like that in decades.

You are jumping way ahead again, huge down wave targets, even whilst the bears show absolutely ZERO Downside power.

Even the 1850/00 zone will be damn tough by late July.

christiangustafson said...

Lower weekly SPX is 1786 or so -- it would have to turn down, it is certainly possible.

But you are correct, that this is all more Gedanken until the chart shows us that red candles are possible again.

Plus, somewhere between here and there we have to visit the 200DMA, at 1814 today.

3PDH may be the bears' last hope against the crack-up boom scenario.

Bicycle said...

The Dow is not confirming these S&P500 new highs yet...

The Dow is still within the giant megaphone on a monthly basis...

The Dow has a rising lower trendline on a monthlies log chart that dates all the way back to the March '09 bottom...

...it intersects with the top of the megaphone--roughly right now.

The Dow is either about to explode north out of the megaphone, or enter a bear market unlike any we have seen in our lifetime.

The Dow has lately been lagging the gains in the S&P.

I should have shorted the close today.

The outcome at this point is very likely to be a lot more binary than most realize.

Bicycle said...

here you go:


all sorts of interesting trendlines can be drawn backwards from that intersection.

If there is any balance in the universe, we're at the top.

Bicycle said...

Put another one up here:


If the top is now, LOOK at the trendline with the 1987 pin low. That trendline did the following:

- Set off the cascade in the '08 crash
- Provided significant downside resistance throughout the '03-'07 bull market
- Provided downside resistance for the 9/11 crash
- Downside resistance throughout late '80s.
- Upward resistance through most of 90's.
- Intersect '87 pin low.

The downside target for the megaphone is somewhere around 6k, a couple years out.

Now run that back to the '87 pin low.

It's the top.

T.Berry said...

2k will be a top much like 2200 will be. no way anyone thought yellen would do such an amazing job. 20+ new all time highs since she took over. don't see any end in sight. bicycles 2200 will get blown out... 2,500 will be the new next "top" sometime mid-2015. it will be a top much like 1250 was 3 years ago (lol)or maybe 1560 was (year ago-lol).. lol. gl cg but the tops are far from over---50K says's snp's pring 3+k w/in 3 yrs.

T.Berry said...

calling ms vix to single digits...possible 8 handle. no reason not to own stocks now. wall street luvs obama

Bryan Franco said...

I believe the russell is at the top of a similarly drawn monthly trendline as well. I don't have it in front of me at the moment. It would make sense that we are near the binary moment. As monetary conditions tighten, we are either ok because the drugs worked, or. .. they were just drugs, and we collapse. The clue might just be the ever-flattening of the yield curve. That is, the long dated treasuries seem to be pointing to continued deflation, even as the short end rises in anticipation of tightening.

KOV said...

Hey Christian, Do you still see 10 year yields going low low again?