Is it time to test the 200 DMA?

I think so.  It has been a while since we have visited it -- the November election.  Now that it looks like supply-side tax-cut stimulus is dead, maybe we need to test it again.

The problem is, visiting the 200 DMA on the S&P 500 will have us break through a key support channel, a trendline from the 1810 low through the Trump election low.  This is a very big deal.

S&P 500

Something I noticed this week -- the all-time high at 2405 SPX is precisely the same distance from the Brexit lows last June as the Brexit lows are from the 2007 highs (@1576 SPX).  This suggests to me that the Brexit spike lows at 1991 might serve as a support for a true head-and-shoulders top, drawn above, which targets the 1576 level as a technical target and support for a sharp market bounce (the B-wave) late this year.

That made me think, What if the Fed actually keeps their word, and raises rates three more times this year?  They have given us plenty of warning, so why shouldn't they follow through on their promise?  After all, it's on Trump's watch, and he foolishly adopted the market rally as a sign of his Mandate from Heaven.

So fuck it, how will he like it when the $VIX is over 40?  He asked for it.  And he would get it, as rate hikes, in June, again in September, and lastly, in December.

By then the damage will have been done, to bring out the specter of deflation, and a test of 666 on the S&P in 2018.

An ominous wedge pattern on $AMZN since early 2015 looks complete, with the stock starting to break out of a really tight wedge at its peak.

$AMZN topping

This unfolds as a serious crisis for the mega-company, heading to support at $300 and, eventually, much lower.

$AMZN breakdown

I worked for Nordstrom ($JWN) for a decade, and noticed that they just put up another death-cross on the $JWN daily chart.  The last time they did this, they tumbled hard from their all-time highs.  Now the only thing going for this chart are the two unfilled gaps up above.  Otherwise, if it breaks the $35 level, we start to look at $18 or so as the next support.

This channel is brutal and suggests that the company may have serious decisions facing it next year.  That's all I will say about them for now.

$JWN channel of Doom

Beware the Ides of March?

Short-term SPX is looking at an expanding-wedge pattern that could blow-off upward in a very violent fashion.

This would reach resistance at 2440 as soon as late in the session Tuesday, like so:

SPX 60d

The response post-FOMC and renewed fiscal crisis, looks like this:

SPX 2y

And the long term count since the 2009 (year) lows:

SPX 10y

The worst possible situation

Only when you have passed over into chiliastic analysis, can you see the worst outcome that is possible in this world.

In my opinion, this would be complete chaos in Fed monetary policy, including possibly a series of rate hikes and cuts in mad succession, a collapse in confidence and mad panic for hard money that would complete the very-long-term "Jaws of Death" pattern before Thanksgiving.

SPX collapse