Friday, February 24, 2017

The worst possible situation

Only when you have passed over into chiliastic analysis, can you see the worst outcome that is possible in this world.

In my opinion, this would be complete chaos in Fed monetary policy, including possibly a series of rate hikes and cuts in mad succession, a collapse in confidence and mad panic for hard money that would complete the very-long-term "Jaws of Death" pattern before Thanksgiving.

SPX collapse

32 comments:

TSE said...

15% of women have slept with their bosses. (37% of those got a promotion out of it.)

That 15% is the number of women who admitted to having affairs with their bosses, so we can safely double the number to get an accurate picture of the percentage of women banging up.

This is female hypergamy 101, the desire of women to date up, marry up, and fuck up. By “up”, I mean a man’s social, economic, and sexual status: women want a man higher than themselves in all the ways that matter, except looks and youth, in which women prefer to retain an edge over the men they screw.

I suggest that is the WORST possible situation.

https://heartiste.wordpress.com/2017/02/24/female-hypergamy-101/

It's The Year of the Cat!

https://youtu.be/cqZc7ZQURMs?t=1s

TSE said...

Donald Trump on putting a Wife to work:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAF564ZvDp4

Hugh Jazole said...

If we make it through the first quarter with nary a correction, then my entire method of divining market direction is in need of a tune up.

Bryan Franco said...

CG. How are you counting the election leg up?

Hugh Jazole said...

Another highly recommended read, if you haven't already. I believe this is from 2008.

https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Reports%20and%20Pubs/2025_Global_Trends_Final_Report.pdf

Bryan Franco said...

The B.O.J. owns 10% of the Nikkei 225 and 55% of all Japanese ETFs. Should we really believe the U.S. Fed doesn't dabble in stocks! What will force them to sell?

john said...

Great stats Bryan, of course they won't sell, everyone else will though. Until BOJ owns nearly everything, then you get collapse of confidence at the tipping point. Now what percentage that tipping point is is the question, and a good one at that. It would have to be when the sheeple really see what is happening, their co-workers are getting out of the market hand over fist and some big news stories breaks about bigwigs getting out. will take long, Japan long, haha.

Bicycle said...

central banks will 100% sacrifice equities in a panic fire sale in order to save a collapsing bond market

Bryan Franco said...

Keep the thoughts coming John and Bike.

Hugh Jazole said...

"collapsing bond market" When is bond market going to collapse?

Bryan Franco said...

HJ. What could force the Fed to not support a bond market that begins to collapse? China could dump all their treasuries, but why wouldn't the Fed just scoop them up? What would cause them to not/be unable to scoop 'em up?

Hugh Jazole said...

"What could force the Fed to not support a bond market that begins to collapse?" Well, I suppose nothing. That doesn't answer my question though. When/why would the bond market collapse? What's the catalyst for this collapse?

TSE said...

Pikers - not realizing that outside potential energy inputs may be....

Over Unity.

Is your mind limited - or unlimited?

https://youtu.be/GIt9t11xgY8

Numbers are infinite - and as such the Universe has no beginning or end,

It is the Ying and Yang of Continuous creation and Destruction.

President Trump is fully in charge:

"Don't get scared now, you knew this day would come. So hold your bids, all bets are closed."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WUII5J-EGdQ

TSE said...

HJ?

Hell NO!

Change it to NO jazoles.

Get in where you fit in.



TSE said...

HJ - Listen and learn:

https://youtu.be/UQ8qduxrlg0

Bicycle said...

same things that have precipitated every bond market crash ever

1. Fear of inflation (trade war, tariff / border taxes)
2. Loss of confidence in ability to repay debt (debt ceiling not raised Mar 15, i.e. Treasury begins to default on payments to existing bondholders)

OR BOTH AT THE SAME TIME

Bicycle said...

if Treasury can not issue more new debt the Fed can not buy what does not exist

the PEOPLE do not want to borrow any more

GAME OVER

Bicycle said...

even that dollar bill in your pocket, is a zero-coupon bond... and when de-linked from hard assets... over a long enough time line...

...it is backed only by the ability of the issuer to create new debt

Bicycle said...

the inflation-adjusted DJIA is currently racing to the top trend (pink) like a magnet. There is no resistance between here and hitting that target.

the only question, is if it will reject there again, or finally break through after 2 massive rejections in the prior 90 years.

Ken Barrows said...

Republicans will raise the debt ceiling, although it would be more fun if they didn't. They can stonewall the Garland nomination and then accuse the Dems of obstructionism. To be fair, same goes for the Democrats.

Hugh Jazole said...

This is good.

http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/crude_oil_foretold_the_trump_rally_10_years_ago/

john said...

1987 , 13 straight days of record highs, nine months later.....bing dang ow, fits CG's latest chart

Hugh Jazole said...

BPSPX just tagged 78!

Hugh Jazole said...

Retail getting sucked into the vortex.

Bicycle said...

anyone else noticing IRX blowing out today

bonds are about to have a BIG, BIG PROBLEM

Hugh Jazole said...

VIX holding 12 is telling.

Hugh Jazole said...

I believe it was Bicycle that made a 2450 call for mid March. That looks like a fantastic call.

Kevin Wilde said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Kevin Wilde said...

"anyone else noticing IRX blowing out today"
IRX is trading at a yield representing 0.66%. It was 5% in 2007 peak. And 6% in 2000. So lotta room to run before stocks cry uncle due to interest rates.

Hugh Jazole said...

Yep.

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/investors-pour-$7-billion-into-u.s.-based-stock-funds-during-week:-lipper-463492

Bicycle said...

all hail the nixon shock

Bicycle said...

"Rusty, that's an e wave." - Clark Griswold