Friday, March 3, 2017

The geometry is beautiful

Hang in there, folks.  Possible curve-inversion this year.

SPX 2Y

31 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

If March hike is expected (look @ ^IRX), its effect might not hit until after March opex.

Hugh Jazole said...

Who could have see this coming!? I mean, it just CAN'T BE!

http://abcnews.go.com/US/man-accused-making-threats-jewish-community-centers-arrested/story?id=45884069

Christian Gustafson said...

Ideally we get the next candidate market top right on the lovely Gail Tverberg's birthday.

We love her. So should you.

Hugh Jazole said...

It appears Canada also has a "white supremacist" problem.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/montreal-concordia-university-bomb-threats-1.4006151


Christian Gustafson said...

My lunatic chart sez that this is announced on November 1.

Hugh Jazole said...

You know it's coming. Most cycle nerds have us in a REAL bear market starting next year. They will want to get the sheep shaking pretty good before they fire up the next round.

Bryan Franco said...

I like the treasury flattener trade... TLT held important support, and no follow-through on Silver

Hugh Jazole said...

BTFD opportunity coming before the debt ceiling nonsense? That got everybody all worked up in 2013.

TSE said...

CG - you are absolutely correct - the Lunatic Fringe is definitely approaching.

But it's been one HE- double toothpicks party 'till the end.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTFVMMCwsss

CHEERS!

Bicycle said...

Good ol' Lunatic Fridge. Wonder if that guy is still long.

What a nightmare.

TSE said...

As for you West Coast Bros - ya' gotta love FEAR - The Band!

LEE VING was awesome!

Enjoy.

https://youtu.be/zl-wW6RR6iY

There's so many of us
There's so many of us
There's so many
There's so many of us
There's so many of us
There's so many [Repeat: x2]

Let's have a war
So you can go and die!
Let's have a war!
We could all use the money!
Let's have a war!
We need the space!
Let's have a war!
Clean out this place!

It already started in the city!
Suburbia will be just as easy!

[Chorus]

Let's have a war!
Jack up the Dow Jones!
Let's have a war!
It can start in New Jersey!
Let's have a war!
Blame it on the middle-class!
Let's have a war!
We're like rats in a cage!

It already started in the city!
Suburbia will be just as easy!

[Chorus]

Let's have a war!
Sell the rights to the networks!
Let's have a war!
Let our wallets get fat like last time!
Let's have a war!
Give guns to the queers!
Let's have a war!
The enemy's within!

It already started in the city!
Suburbia will be just as easy!

Christian Gustafson said...

Good stuff, on the "Repo Man" soundtrack.

Here in the Seattle everyone listens to The Mentors.

Hugh Jazole said...

To quote Mr. Mean Spirited, "If you don't have paranoid personality disorder, you aren't seeing the whole picture."

Christian Gustafson said...

Hey Hugh, TSE ..

Here's something meaty to chew on.

TSE said...

Thanks for the link -

Indeed, the Clintons are a product of fiat money - and are thus able to impose policies and practices contrary to good stewardship based upon the excess inputs of fiat money.

The Clintons would not exist without fiat money.

Fiat money sends death and destruction throughout the World, builds Empires and is the seedcorn of their (Empire) ultimate destruction.

The Mentors. LOL.

https://youtu.be/rNJacSjRAd0

It is definitely hardcore.

The 4 F's, which I learned as a teen: Find Her, Feel Her, F*ck Her, Forget Her.

Some Queensryche:

https://youtu.be/NSTct2FFamw

This will end well.... (not)

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-05/its-declaration-war-south-africas-president-calls-confiscation-white-land

TSE said...

"When denial becomes Toxic":

http://www.economic-undertow.com/2017/03/03/when-denial-becomes-toxic/#comments

Is merely wasting space, as 4 words could be compressed into one:

OVERSHOOT

NEW ECOLOGICAL UNDERSTANDINGS

CIRCUMSTANCE: The Age of Exuberance is over, population has already overshot carrying capacity, and prodigal Homo sapiens has drawn down the world's savings deposits.

CONSEQUENCE: All forms of human organization and behavior that are based on the assumption of limitlessness must change to forms that accord with finite limits.

OVERSHOOT - It's here now and real.

http://dieoff.org/page15.htm

Those in the Priesthood of the Fed know and realize this. Their policies will only buy time - put off into the future that which can't be accomplished today.

Continue to play the market - because when the music ends - you won't have a chair to sit down on.

Hugh Jazole said...

Constant Conflict.

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article3011.htm


David Does said...

i think xiv is topping out soon, less than a month?
http://imgur.com/a/qI0wp

Christian Gustafson said...

Coupla' weeks? Run your analysis on our good friend UVXY, David.

^irx at .71 today all you need to know re March FOMC. The reaction will be muted, and the market will make it through March opex.

Good luck after that, though.

Hugh Jazole said...

Will UVXY break the 52 week low today?

Christian Gustafson said...

Soon, I think.

But do notice how the daily lower BB for UVXY has flatlined for several weeks now in the $18.50 range, which may buoy it if people pick it up as a hedge into FOMC etc next week.

^IRX opening at .75 this morning tells you that our 3rd hike is guaranteed next week. I'd like to think we can make it up to 2440 on the S&P by then, the top edge of a couple of channels on my chart.

Bicycle said...

14 Jun rate hike odds are already up to 44% in the 100-125 bps range. Fed has always hiked when rate hike odds are >60%. Market is quickly being trained that they are going to raise with every FOMC... until something breaks.

Bicycle said...

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

Hugh Jazole said...

VIX finally over 12. If we can get past 13 we might actually get some selling.

Bryan Franco said...

Treasuries weak even with equities down recently, and now, not even with the Euro up!

Hugh Jazole said...

Anyone willing to make the crazy call that Janet won't raise?

Bryan Franco said...

not, not even.. even

Christian Gustafson said...

^IRX says no way.

I imagine the market would be euphoric on said announcement, at least for a couple of days.

Hugh Jazole said...

Can we FINALLY get that 5% correction I called for the first quarter? My very fragile ego would sure appreciate it.

Hugh Jazole said...

Um.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3049573/donald-trump-sends-b-52-nuclear-bombers-to-south-korea-after-north-fires-missiles-at-japan-and-us-warns-of-overwhelming-response/

Christian Gustafson said...

Straight up to 2440 SPX from here through Tuesday?