|Anton Ludwig August von Mackensen|
The short-term SPX count seems clear enough. Waves 1 and 3 each took 4-5 days.
This gives us a sharp drop back to support at 1972 SPX, followed by a kissback rejection of the old 2-4 trendline and a harder fall to 1820.
|SPX 02-18 6M|
Today's notes suggest that the Fed will NOT raise rates at the April meeting, bouncing us back up toward SPX 2000. We must keep a very close watch on the yield of the 13-week Treasury bill during this period for clues that the Fed will raise at the June meeting. There's another channel kissback/rejection opportunity around 1985 SPX.
That would drop us to the next level of support around 1530 SPX. A crash in September would finish the 3PDH retrace back below 1100 SPX.
|SPX 02-18 10Y|
VIX is setting up well for a low against its lower Bollinger Band and a support trendline that has been running for a while.