Thursday, February 12, 2015

Watch the upper Bollinger on the S&P 500

I've been watching it for weeks, and now we are in hot pursuit of the top Bollinger Band on the daily S&P 500.  It's up at 2089 today, rising at 5-6 points/day.

Let's catch it next week, and hit that pink top trendline.  Maybe that will be our point #23 on the 3PDH supermodel, at long last.

SPX ending-diagonal count

28 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

Walking the 7 mi into work again lately, getting my gams tuned up for hiking season.

I'm seeing clear signs of commercial stress down the Greenwood Avenue corridor and through the Fremont neighborhood, solid middle-class professional stretches of the Seattle.

As it gets a little lighter here, I'll take some pix and post them here.

Bicycle said...

On a percentage gain basis, your target for the SPX gets us to roughly ~18350 on the DJIA. All systems go. Let's have a little overthrow on the DJIA to get us within range of the top trend of the rising wedge.

T.Berry said...

mr secular bull market appears mad this month.s&p +4.6% mtd

Bryan Franco said...

Anyone look at the Russell Mid Cap Index? $Mid is the ticker in Stockcharts. It could be putting in a set of nested ending diagonals on the daily charts off of the October '14 low. The larger presumed Wave 5 would need to stop real soon in order to not be bigger than its corresponding Wave 3. If this starts to role over, it would jive with a top in the market over the next week.

Phat Repat said...

Something I had mentioned before was Max Pain. Not sure how useful it is but I do seem to recall that many spot prices would end close to that value. The current Max pain for SPY options (13 FEB 2015) is 205. And I believe we have pierced the BB on the daily. Gives me some pause...

Spot not strike. Oops... ;-)

Christian Gustafson said...

Yahoo! showing the upper BB at 2090.60, rising even intraday.

We're flirting with it now, but I don't see any need to apply shorts until we see 1) a completed 5 wave move here, and 2) candles through the LOWER BBs for the ^VIX and vol ETFs.

A touch of the pink chart TL, up in the 2120s next week, would also be useful.

This still looks like the 3rd wave in the series. The SPX BB should keep rising, then level off with wave 4, so we can run up to visit it and kiss it goodbye for a while.

Phat Repat said...

CG
That's quite the hike into work. Is that about 2 hours, one way? Too much for me. ;-)

Yeah, it's worse and getting worser. Would like to see those pics if you have a chance.

T.Berry said...

yeehaw, new ath on s&p! . have good feeling it won't be the last : )

Christian Gustafson said...

SPX upper BB back above 2100 this morning, which is a good thing.

Trendlines, channels, wedges, etc all pointing up to a high around 2130 SPX at EOM February, when the Greek ultimata all come due.

Sitting tight until then. I suppose I'll post some updated charts making this case tonight. Or maybe a book post to kill time.

Phat Repat said...

Nice and steady rise; making it extremely painful for those having missed the run, too cautious to get in, until a new high is made and it is unbearable to watch, then getting in, at THE top. Brutal.

Ideal target for me is 2123 with end to this run coming in at 2073.34 followed by a reversal at 2064.89. Nice.

Reverend Nihilism said...

Check out that 3 mo Treasury.

T.Berry said...

2100 finally goes down and another ath. on to 2200 now.

Bicycle said...

Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Future New Orders; Percent Expecting Decreases (Monthly), YoY Percentage Change

Very soon, everyone else is going to get very bearish, very quickly.

T.Berry said...

bicycle,
i feel as though majority have been very bearish for a while like a few years. when they all turn bullish is when i'm going to worry and think about getting out.

Phat Repat said...

Oh, the bears will be right, eventually. But not until they throw in the towel and jump in at THE top.

Until then, I'll stick with my numbers and they haven't told me to jump, yet. ;-)

Christian Gustafson said...

No, not yet. SPX BB back up to 2111 and rising.

It looks like we are in wave 4 of a five-wave move up from 1980. Waves 1 and 3 each took 4-5 days to complete.

A fifth wave would take us into late next week and the final Greek Euro deadline. Couldn't ask for a better entry, especially if we are finally good with the Bollingers.

I love the action lately on gold. Imagine the shock when $1000 falls ... then $800 ...

Phat Repat said...

CG
I will continue to buy gold, if available, all through that decline. I'm in the camp where this system (i.e. the $IMFS) is not sustainable and has reached its expiration. Of course the timing of expiration, as with so many other things, remains elusive. So, either I will come through unscathed, or my heirs will. But someone will be happy. ;-)

T.Berry said...

they will phat, but so far 6 years is a long time :o). i give it at least 2 more years and 500+ snp points.

ot. how about that nas only 2% from 5k! could hit in next 30 days but think it will take 2 months maybe

this mkt has feel of an explosive rally about to take place

Phat Repat said...

T.Berry
That works for me. I play both sides of this game so I should be positioned to enjoy the ups and the downs; for as long as the system may last. And I personally hope it lasts for many years to come, though I am hedged for an alternate outcome. ;-)

T.Berry said...

good on you phat! i'm not worried at all about any drops as i'm a long termer (20 yrs'ish)and they will provide great times to add. one thing to remember is the stock market always comes back. in 5 or 10 years the market will be higher than today. i applaud those making money shorting though i could never do it.

Bicycle said...

The Federal Reserve is so damn stupid. Holding rates at zero basically indefinitely now and in the future with the rumors of negative deposit rates.

If you are a dude looking for the next best place to deploy cash for tiny albeit guaranteed returns you are now just paying down debt. Mortgage debt, student loan debt, credit card debt, auto loan debt, whatevs. And that is deflation by definition when a populace does that en masse

Seriously insane position they are going to cause it to happen just like has been said by bears all along

Phat Repat said...

Bicycle
It's quite the conundrum.

Negative rates as global cash burn

Phat Repat said...

T.Berry
I'm too risk averse to take gut wrenching rides, up or down; so a 5 to 10 year horizon wouldn't work for me. My portfolio will never see more than a 1% decline in steady markets or a 3% decline in highly volatile markets. ;-)

T.Berry said...

"My portfolio will never see more than a 1% decline in steady markets or a 3% decline in highly volatile markets. ;-)"
that sounds like a nice solid plan you got there phat. protected yet enjoying the fruits of this secular bull market.

as for yellen or the fed, i have zero qualms given the returns i've seen. they avoided a depression in my book.
now, if i were retired and having to live of cds and savings accts, i might have not so nice words to say about them :)

Bryan Franco said...

Phat - I think you and I share the same utility function and risk aversion parameter. We should talk!

Phat Repat said...

Bryan
Wish I could talk about it but it is a proprietary system that I evolved over time. I developed it for the Android platform (tablet format) making it portable and easy for me to tweak as opportunities are presented.

Fortunately, this methodology doesn't require that I sit in front of the trading screen all day, allowing me to focus on my real interest of micro-uav development for SAR and other industrial/commercial uses. ;-)

Bryan Franco said...

Phat - Just meant to say that I didn't think there was anyone quite as risk- neurotic as me. 1-3% drawdown is running a pretty tight ship.

Phat Repat said...

Bryan
Ah, I see. I appreciate that someone shares risk aversion to that degree. Good to know I'm not alone in the wilderness; though it sure feels that way at times. ;-)