Saturday, July 25, 2015

And on the Seventh Day, Karl wept ...

Karl Denninger's doomed BBRY continues to make new 52-week lows -- it's one of the stocks contributing to the three (at last count) Hindenburg Omen days we had this week, putting in sharp new lows while the momo tech stocks fly.

BBRY did touch its lower Bollinger on Friday, so it's due for a bounce, maybe another test of the $8 level before it continues its quest to worthlessness.  Remember that BBRY has only entertainment value for us in Deflation Land, it's a proxy for laughing at that consummate douchebag in the Florida who is shutting down his blog, gee, one of these days.

These memes are addictive once you get started.

Charts, it's do or die for anything bullish now.  My count still wants to see one more high, preferably in a couple of weeks around 2150-2156.  FOMC the big mover this upcoming week.

After another high, then we want to see the ending-diagonal finally break down, hard and fast.  UVXY ought to be at least a triple on this move if properly timed.

SPX 07-24 daily

This all leads, of course, to a fight over the 1820 SPX level that resolves itself as it should, with a complete meltdown of the equity markets and return to the trendline between the 2002 and 2009 lows.  These are the FAS-157 chickens coming home to roost.


Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Charts 07-22: Updated counts

Of course the top is not in -- I have us in "b of 5", correcting this last little rally.  Support at the 50DMA?

Once this correction is complete (this week), we then have "c of 5" left (as always) for that one last high.  If we can push through overhead resistance from 2135 to 2150 SPX, I think we could run all the way up to the true top of the ending-diagonal-since-October pattern, a real blow-off to the 2194 area.

SPX 07-22 1Y

After that, it's every man for himself, the devil take the hindmost ...


Thursday, July 16, 2015

What the bears need now

Equity bears need that magic ingredient -- a key-reversal day -- off the 2144 SPX area early in the session tomorrow.  

SPX 07-16

This would begin a direct drop back to support at 1820, completing in 3 weeks (imo).  It would be one helluva summer, and an autumn truly for the ages.

The upper SPX daily Bollinger Band will be ~2144 tomorrow, with the lower UVXY BB at $26.  We could see a 10-handle VIX on this move, at least until she rolls over.  We will want to see selling on heavy volume, and finish the day with a beautiful gravestone doji for the daily SPX candle.

A shift in the Greek situation would be the most likely culprit, suggesting that the check for the ECB payment next week might not clear.  

Perhaps Germany or even the IMF will blow up the ponzi at long last.

Monday, July 13, 2015

Can the Bulls trigger a hellish short-squeeze?

Well, can they?  Like, tomorrow?

Top of the impulse channel is 2135 SPX (new ATHs) by close tomorrow.  All they need to do is gap us 5-10 handles overnight over the 50DMA and the bears will take us the rest of the way.

SPX 07-13

This would of course set up the initial drop back to 1820 SPX and a fall crash according to the 1987 panic model I wrote about on ZeroHedge.  The sequence of "events" might be a little different, though, as I really really think Yellen will raise short-term rates at the September meeting.

SPX Fall 2015, 1987 crash model

Yes, this will be the greatest market crash in modern economic history.  And you are invited!

Clip from Margin Call

You are the demand for credit.  You create "money" in what Mises called the "Banking School" model.  Never forget this.

The outcome, of course, is the same for any credit expansion.

Thursday, July 9, 2015

Important triangle on /ES futures

The strict short-term wave counts of the /ES and SPX are out of sync with each other because of the big gap down we had on the /ES last Sunday night.

Since then, the futures have drawn a very clear sideways triangle, which I think points us to new highs on the indexes next week.  If the count is right, these red candles are a false break, and we still have that one high left to go.

/ES will need to get over 2066 in the overnight session, then kissback the B-wave triangle tomorrow and leave it in a hurry.  Chart courtesy of Finviz.

/ES hourly with B of 5 triangle

When we finally do break from the ending-diagonal from the October 2014 lows, we should make a beeline straight back to 1820, i.e. the drama this week actually supports the case that the high is not in and the E-D is not complete.

Good luck, and be careful out there.  If I'm right, this will be a nasty little squeeze to the 2150 area on the S&P 500.

Is 4 finally over?

We failed to make a new low on the SPX and DJIA yesterday, while VIX spiked above 19.

Counting that as A and B of a final 5th.  C of 5th is an impulse.  Let's wrap this up.

SPX 7/8

Thursday, July 2, 2015

Everyone is laughing at Karl Denninger again

... as his pet stock BBRY crashes.  Under $8 now!  A 5-handle is calling ...


Meanwhile, Karl still carries on like this, preening himself and pretending the world can be "fixed".

If YOU are not willing to do whatever must be done to stop this in the current time frame then you are a monster, you are "invested" in fraud, you are consigning your children to privation and you are destroying not only your future (unless you're older than 75 you're nearly-certain to get what's coming to us all) but theirs as well.
Not someone else, YOU.

Pace Karl Marx, the point is not to change the world, but to understand it first, and change yourself.  All that Karl Denninger's nauseating Boomer idealism gets us is angry, fed-up, and ultimately ignorant readers. 

Meanwhile Karl signs up new idiots to buy BlackBerry and hold it to zero.  Well done, sir!
That could have a rather-interesting impact on those who are short the company's stock...
Yeah, they just made about 10% since Karl wrote that!  No "golden cross" for you!

Thanks for the laughs.  Buy that dip.

Wait a second -- why is Karl still blogging?  How many tantrums and pious exits does he get?  Shut it down ... put it in the oven ... Shut. It. Down.