Monday, July 13, 2015

Can the Bulls trigger a hellish short-squeeze?

Well, can they?  Like, tomorrow?

Top of the impulse channel is 2135 SPX (new ATHs) by close tomorrow.  All they need to do is gap us 5-10 handles overnight over the 50DMA and the bears will take us the rest of the way.

SPX 07-13

This would of course set up the initial drop back to 1820 SPX and a fall crash according to the 1987 panic model I wrote about on ZeroHedge.  The sequence of "events" might be a little different, though, as I really really think Yellen will raise short-term rates at the September meeting.

SPX Fall 2015, 1987 crash model

Yes, this will be the greatest market crash in modern economic history.  And you are invited!

14 comments:

Reverend Nihilism said...

I'm seeing the short squeeze, but the not the crash. At least not yet.

Christian Gustafson said...

Over 2100 SPX now, c'mon bears, we need you, buy-to-close, buy-to-close.

Bicycle said...

Here's a cheery scribe for you this morning

Christian Gustafson said...

I'm sure the CSZ will give way just as I'm ready to cover a big batch of ITM puts.

Maybe we gain 5 handles /ES every hour today, all day, slowly driving any remaining bears out of their collective minds.

Bicycle said...

Here's the chart from yesterday. We're close to resolving d, then we'll be down on our way to 17250 for e. The breakout will be a new ATH on the DJIA in Aug-Sept timeframe.

I can't stay away. Too bad I washed away all the old charts.

T.Berry said...

bulls won't be denied. 6+ yrs and counting. look forward to next 6 :)

think secular bull market.

Bicycle said...

The bulls will get one more new ATH and then they will be crucified.

I really, really, wanted to short the close today (small) so I'm hoping the DJIA doesn't fall out of bed tomorrow morning. I would like just a few more Dow points on my plate, please.

Christian Gustafson said...

Well we landed right on the channel late today.

Imagine a situation where the Greeks pass the bailout overnight, only to have the IMF veto it.

What kind of fun would that give us?

Christian Gustafson said...

The Most Bullish Case (imo) would have us at 2185 SPX for July opex.

That's the midline of the current rally channel @close this Friday.

Bicycle said...

We just bounced off the top of my descending broadening wedge at DJIA 18090. D is in? We could be headed to 17250 after the Yellen. Then, new ATHs.

Bicycle said...

The NASA just released a stunning close-up of the Pluto...

Reverend Nihilism said...

http://www.goodreads.com/work/quotes/223467-straw-dogs-thoughts-on-humans-and-other-animals



Christian Gustafson said...

Upper daily SPX Bollinger is right about at 2138, a nice reminder that the 1.618x extension of the 2008 bear cycle is 2138 SPX.

That's only 31 handles away, easily within reach as early as tomorrow on strong "earnings" and good news out of the Greece.

FWIW, tomorrow is also a Bradley turn date according to Manfred Zimmel. If you believe in that sort of thing.

T.Berry said...

" I would like just a few more Dow points on my plate, please."

is +70 enough?