Thursday, July 16, 2015

What the bears need now

Equity bears need that magic ingredient -- a key-reversal day -- off the 2144 SPX area early in the session tomorrow.  

SPX 07-16

This would begin a direct drop back to support at 1820, completing in 3 weeks (imo).  It would be one helluva summer, and an autumn truly for the ages.

The upper SPX daily Bollinger Band will be ~2144 tomorrow, with the lower UVXY BB at $26.  We could see a 10-handle VIX on this move, at least until she rolls over.  We will want to see selling on heavy volume, and finish the day with a beautiful gravestone doji for the daily SPX candle.

A shift in the Greek situation would be the most likely culprit, suggesting that the check for the ECB payment next week might not clear.  

Perhaps Germany or even the IMF will blow up the ponzi at long last.


Bicycle said...

I like that we have some possibilities right here, it is keeping things very interesting.

Meanwhile the Swiss Family Robinson navigates the waves with us and Nancy Drew is captured by a ruthless runaway algo

Anonymous said...

Time to start slowly easing into PM's?

Christian Gustafson said...

If a rejection soon is possible, and we do it from the current rally channel we are in, it may take a few more days -- mid next-week.

Shifts my whole "1987" crash plan over 1 week. It also means I don't think Yellen will raise in September again (i.e. her act gives the rally its last gasp).

PMs may be the bear market from hell. I can't see how they rise if equities are selling off hard again.

Bicycle, your ed of Swiss Family Robinson is G&D from the late 1920s or early 1930s. I have a few titles from this era like Little Lord Fauntleroy and some James Fenimore Cooper. Grosset gathered a number of them up into new editions with new illustrations for the Junior Illustrated Library starting around 1945. There are numerous formats and sizes for these -- I like the mid-sized ones with dust-jackets, the ones Baby Boomer (spit!) kids read growing up.

Christian Gustafson said...

A few useful dates to mark on your calendar:

7/30, 8/27, 9/25

These are the 1st two estimates and the final report of Q2 GDP.

If it is negative then the recession is official. Even if the Yellen Fed kept us at ZIRP the week before.

i.e. I am proposing that September 25 may be the point where the waterfall goes over the edge. Nooksack Falls, cheese.

benjoyce said...

Gustafson- Good point but how could GDP be negative with the NFP being robust?

We'll find out

Team Winning said...




sooner said...

I've thought he's been crazy all along. But he's been right do far. It's definitely an interesting read.

T.Berry said...

38000 is reasonable in 10 years. that's just getting 8%/year which is historical average. long term the market will do well.

Bicycle said...

Has this caldaro person even looked at an inflation-adjusted chart of the DJIA. Noone who has would ever make up such ludicrous targets for this wave. does he even technical analysis bro