Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Charts 07-22: Updated counts

Of course the top is not in -- I have us in "b of 5", correcting this last little rally.  Support at the 50DMA?

Once this correction is complete (this week), we then have "c of 5" left (as always) for that one last high.  If we can push through overhead resistance from 2135 to 2150 SPX, I think we could run all the way up to the true top of the ending-diagonal-since-October pattern, a real blow-off to the 2194 area.

SPX 07-22 1Y

After that, it's every man for himself, the devil take the hindmost ...

SPX ALL 2015 APOCALYPSE

18 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

McHugh sez we had another Hindenburg Omen yesterday. He's getting ready for the next bear Crusade.

Reverend Nihilism said...

UVXY telling us all we need to know.

Christian Gustafson said...

Agreed re UVXY -- and look at her lower Bollinger now.

She may be $15 before I think of asking her to the dance again.

Bryan Franco said...

Look at IWN and IJS (the Russell 2000 Value and S&P Small Cap Value Indices) ... starting to confirm downtrends on the daily.

Stair ClimbLunatic said...

Amazon up $80 ($35 BILLION increase in Market Cap).

I do hope that assclown Dunginger is short in size. He just bashed it - yet again - a few days ago. He can choke to death on his worthless Blackberry shares! ROFLMAO!!!!

Christian Gustafson said...

Stair! Welcome!

Your insights are appreciated here. BBRY new 52 week low today, as Karl speculated that the other platforms would all go to dust in some hellish zero-day exploit.

Stair ClimbLunatic said...

Thanks! Long time reader of your work, and enjoy it. We both share a disdain for KD. You might remember me as "End_the_bubbles" over there - before getting the "Banhammer" from that narcissistic a-hole. He actually booted me for ripping on BBRY. LOL!

Bicycle said...

If anyone was short AMZN they were simply too early, not patient, or not looking at a chart.

Amazon is about to lose 80% of its market capitalization. But today absolutely had to happen first.

Depriv said...

The more I think about the big picture the less tempting this 'immediate fall' thing is. It's just not ready to fall yet on the monthly tf.
Yes, there will be a correction, a big one, a bite below the level of the last one: but after that we still need a fifth wave up to finish this. This might take even years.

Also, I don't think anymore that the fall will be anything of a 'big nul'. More likely it'll be some kind of ABC 'consolidation', like the one available for observation on the bitcoin-chart, or on the gold chart (where it's just finished the 'A' part, I think).

Christian Gustafson said...

3 HOs in a row this week, 2nd official warning in effect.

Depriv said...

On the mid-tf count: the momentum profile does not really support the idea of a bigger ED. While the first half of this year was most likely an ED (can be seen on the daily RSI), for this last upward thrust, there is nothink alike. This might be a 'standalone' fifth wave (truncated or not yet finished), or a first wave (not likely, IMHO).

If it was a truncated fifth, then - I'll stick to my assumption that a BIG fourth wave is coming - then a fast 'A' will fall, any time now.

Reverend Nihilism said...

Everyone is ready to jump ship, gotta love it. UVXY continues to jackhammer lower. What, me worry?

Christian Gustafson said...

Lower UVXY daily BB is 20.36 this morning -- $4 pre-most-recent-reverse-split.

A (c) of 5 wave up ought to collapse UVXY again like a dropped colostomy bag.

Christian Gustafson said...

BBRY struggling to hold $7.50 now -- Karl's cross to bear.

LOL

Bryan Franco said...

Pretty sure IWN and IJS are in confirmed downtrends. If you want to hedge that other indices have more highs left, I like EWJ long versus those. Will write about on our blog. It would be a slight negative beta trade.

Bryan Franco said...

And here is our update from HT Trading:

http://httrading.blogspot.com/

C.B. said...

Where we've been?

Where we're going?

*cue Jaws theme*

Reverend Nihilism said...

This reversal will be pretty tragic. I hate to see fellow bears get trapped, but that looks like the setup.