Tuesday, June 17, 2014

Charts 06-17: Count for a 7/16 top

This would be an ending-diagonal ending with a final move towards SPX 2000 into the 7/16 major Bradley turn.  It would first get a bit more downside from tomorrow's FOMC than I think most are expecting.  That lower trendline needs to hold for a final move up.

SPX 06-17

Note also that the first move at the top may bounce off the 200 DMA. We need to do that before we go any further.  GLTA ...

Sunday, June 15, 2014

Charts 06-15: FOMC week

It seems like I'm the only one out here in the wilderness counting a nice 5-wave impulse off the 1955 highs -- everyone else is calling a correction.  The move still needs a 5th, and an ideal target for that would be SPX 1916 late in tomorrow's session.

This would mean that Friday's pop was a wave 4 -- which in my mind needed to be sharp and deep in order to give us an unbroken 2-4 trendline in the series.  That's a very important rule for me for determining the proper bounds of a wave 3 and the rest of the mess.

SPX 06-13

I'm providing an alt on the larger chart for the case that the July 16th Bradley turn window is a TOP instead of a BOTTOM.  Remember, in the 2008 season, both 7/16 and 11/20 were very important bottoms.

SPX 06-13 1Y

You can see pretty easily that the orange line traces an ending-diagonal that began at the SPX 1737 low.  The final thrust north would approach 1990 by the July 16th turn.

More notes on the charts.  Have a good week!  I'm busy planning summer hiking trips out into the shit with my girls.

Thursday, June 12, 2014

Charts 06-12 a.m.: Is 3PDH point #23 in?

The question before us is whether we have put in point #23 in the Domed Top, of BOTH of the 3PDH counts currently in play, the long-term one, and the shorter one since last Fall.

If you take a look at the long-term count, notice that thin blue line I had connecting waves 1 and 3 on an Elliott count -- points #11 and #21 on the 3PDH? 


See that line?  We threw a pin at it with Monday's high of 1955 SPX.  We zoom-in for a peek.

SPX daily 3PDH close-up

I still want to see us find support in the 1915-1920 area before starting a larger leg down with next week's FOMC news release.

Tuesday, June 10, 2014


LOL LOL LOL LOL good riddance to bad rubbish.

Hearty congratulations go out to the good Professor David Brat.

for RINOs everywhere ...

Friday, June 6, 2014

A second 3PDH pattern now in play

Volatilites are getting bloodied again, but we won't go anywhere near them until VIX gives us a 10-handle print.  We're close to a UVXY and VXX cross, too.

I noticed another decent run of George Lindsay's "Three Peaks and a Domed House" pattern in equities, this one on the SPX since September 2013:

SPX 06-05 1Y with 3PDH

If the 1737 level is point "10" on this count, then that's where the pattern will take us.  That agrees with the larger 3PDH count, the mega one since the 2010 lows, where 1737 SPX is point 22.

SPX 06-05 4Y with 3DPH

I added a high level Elliott count back to the larger chart.  The volatility in 2011 is counted as a B-wave triangle, with the impulsive "C" wave starting at SPX 1202.

The count gives us a napkin target of 1957 on the SPX, by about next Tuesday.

VIX 06-05

I would caution against expecting a huge reaction and drop right off the top.  These Three Peaks patterns show tops as an up and down thrust, surrounded by sideways movement.  That sideways movement is what I think we had this week, waiting for the ECB's policy announcement.

So I would expect us to retreat from the ~1957 level, back to 1918 or so, bottom on the June Full Moon, and then hold there, sideways and slightly up, while the market waits patiently for June FOMC.

June FOMC gives us the next leg down to support at 1847-50, which sets up a larger head and shoulders that targets the July lows.  We stair-step down into the Fall with sell-offs of increasing severity, until we are back to 1074 or so SPX.

Good luck to all [bears].

Tuesday, June 3, 2014