Thursday, March 9, 2017

Beware the Ides of March?

Short-term SPX is looking at an expanding-wedge pattern that could blow-off upward in a very violent fashion.



This would reach resistance at 2440 as soon as late in the session Tuesday, like so:

SPX 60d

The response post-FOMC and renewed fiscal crisis, looks like this:

SPX 2y

And the long term count since the 2009 (year) lows:

SPX 10y

23 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

The collapse is faster and more severe than any sane person thinks possible.

Hugh Jazole said...

If we can make it past 2380, I guess it's possible. I'm curious to see where the DJT heads near term.

Bryan Franco said...

Interesting.. Which DJT are we talking about?

Bryan Franco said...

I suppose both DJTs are leading indicators. Both fail to reclaim the old 'highs' ...

Hugh Jazole said...

HA! I've thought about that before. It does indeed look like the market DJT, will not be revisiting the high anytime soon.

TSE said...

CG describes, in his statement:

"The collapse is faster and more severe than any sane person thinks possible".

It is the Seneca Cliff.

As Ugo Bardi describes it:

Could it be that the Seneca cliff is what we are facing, right now? If that is the case, then we are in trouble. With oil production peaking or set to peak soon, it is hard to think that we are going to see a gentle downward slope of the economy. Rather, we may see a decline so fast that we can only call it "collapse."

http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2011/08/seneca-effect-origins-of-collapse.html

"General Incompetence has taken charge of complex systems which are fragile and subject to gradual collapse without knowledgeable and properly trained and educated management. As the gradual collapse is allowed to continue, the effects multiply until the collapse goes exponential, and then it is the last moment for the yeast in the bottle as carrying capacity is exceeded."

Perhaps I need to Trademark that statement - LOL!

*BREAK* for some Donnie Iris:

https://youtu.be/YH5Arbm47IQ

Carrying capacity - or how many people can ride on my productive Ass before it breaks:

The Industrial Revolution made us precariously dependent on nature's dwindling legacy of non-renewable resources, even though we did not at first recognize this fact. Many major events of modern history were unforeseen results of actions taken with inadequate awareness of ecological mechanisms. Peoples and governments never intended some of the outcomes their actions would incur...

We did not know we were watching a preview because, when the world economy fell apart in 1929-32, it was not from exhaustion of essential fuels or materials. From the very definition of carrying capacity—the maximum indefinitely supportable ecological load—we can now see that non-renewable resources provide no real carrying capacity; they provide only phantom carrying capacity. If coming to depend on phantom carrying capacity is a Faustian bargain that mortgages the future of Homo colossus as the price of an exuberant present, that mortgage was not yet being foreclosed in the Great Depression. Even so, much of the suffering that befell so much of mankind in the 1930s does need to be seen as the result of a carrying capacity deficit. The fact that the deficit did not stem from resource exhaustion in that instance makes it no less indicative of the kinds of grief entailed by resource depletion. Accordingly, we need to understand what did bring on a carrying capacity deficit in the 1930s.

http://dieoff.org/page15.htm

Nickelback Live At Sturgis 2007

https://youtu.be/Ivpe6_kIAoI

ENJOY!

TSE said...

"JAWS":

https://youtu.be/ucMLFO6TsFM

Hugh Jazole said...

How many rate increases before REIT's go boom?

Bryan Franco said...

Took a short position in REITs etf on Thursday.

Hugh Jazole said...

Probably a smart move. I've never shorted an individual sector before. My IRA has a REIT fund I'll be keeping an eye on for a buying opportunity. That's probably a couple of years off though.

TSE said...

Women, such as Fed Chair Janet Yellen, should always know their limits.

Uppity Witch!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LS37SNYjg8w

TSE said...

And the antidote to The Mentors:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mentors_(band)

Look Listen and Take Heed - Women Keep Your Virtue

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLgzxk7Rd-Q

Hugh Jazole said...

Your neck of the woods CG.

https://www.investing.com/news/politics-news/washington-state-moves-to-block-trump's-new-travel-ban-in-court-465747

Hugh Jazole said...

Threw in the bear towel yesterday. I think that's the best pullback we're going to get short/mid-term.

Christian Gustafson said...

Pop should last into March opex, if today's early call by "Gartman" is any sign.

Of course it's a sign; it's the all-clear for FOMC and the next couple of days for the big financials.

Now ... if the US Treasury runs out of cash, say, over the weekend, all bets are off.

Hugh Jazole said...

If the Treasury runs out of cash, we can start a Deflation Land hunter/gatherer tribe.

TSE said...

HJ Stated:

"If the Treasury runs out of cash"

Then define "CASH"

cash1
kaSH/Submit
noun
1.
money in coins or notes, as distinct from checks, money orders, or credit.
"the staff were paid in cash"
synonyms: money, currency, hard cash;

HJ - There is NO CASH in the Treasury.

What is available is credit- and it is unlimited. A fiction created by a mere word.

Revealed below is how credit is created:

The Mystery of the Cosmic Vibration:

The Om (or Aum) is said to be the “sound” of cosmic creation that occurs throughout the universe. It is described in Hindu and Buddhist teachings and texts and many claim to hear it during meditation. In the context of the ancient physics of subquantum kinetics, it may be interpreted as the constant fluctuation of the ether substrates that extend throughout the universe and underlie our physical wave-like existence. This vibrating ether may be be compared to a choppy sea, or to the white noise snow many have seen on an untuned analog TV set. Subquantum kinetics predicts the existence of such a cosmic vibration as a collective of minute energy impulses, each of which is a momentary localized ether concentration pulse (or energy pulse) imparted when an etheron changes from one state to another either through a transmutation or reaction process. There may be an infinite number of such ether states in this possibly endless journey through ether states deployed through the higher dimension of space, but we have no way of knowing for sure. We can only hypothesize with some certainty that our universe exists at a particular juncture in this river of transformation, a flux that extends both “above” and “below” our physical plane.

This etheron transformation is a Markov chain process, one in which death from one state occurs in conjunction with birth into a new state. Shiva Nataraja, the Cosmic Dancer from Hindu mysticism shown above, symbolically illustrates this Markovian process. His left hand holds the flame of cosmic dissolution which represents the departure of etherons as they disappear from their former etheric state to transmute into the next. His upper right hand, his hand of creation, holds a drum which he continually shakes creating the sound of cosmic creation, the Om sound. This represents the vibratory pulses of the etherons popping into their new etheron states throughout the universe. Shiva’s dancing body is configured in the shape of the ancient sanskrit Om symbol. Together, these processes of etheron dissolution and creation which Shiva denotes signifies the ever-present cosmic flux that sustains our physical universe in its present state of existence.

The Om may also be identified with the continual omnipresent stochastic energy fluctuation process that physicists call the zero-point energy continuum. Although the standard physics concept of quantum zero-point fluctuation differs in some respects in comparison to the subquantum fluctuation concept of subquantum kinetics, both theories predict the existence of a zero-point energy continuum. There is no known experiment that can directly observe these zero point fluctuations since subquantum kinetics predicts that they take place below the quantum level and standard physics predicts that they last a length of time too short for measurement. Their presence, however, has indirectly been observed through detection of the Casimir effect, a force theorized to be exerted on two closely spaced parallel plates, due to environmental zero-point fluctuation pressure attempting to pushing them together.

http://etheric.com/om-the-cosmic-vibration/





Hugh Jazole said...

Here's something for you TSE.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P-SkGpxCmY&t=328s


Mr. Mean-Spirited said...

Some days I am more despondent than others. Sometimes I am afraid that this collapse will not ever come – that things will continue in this slow decline until the end of my life. That, to me, is more frightening than any apocalypse.

T.Berry said...



wise decision hugh. you will be amazed at how much better you will feel. why go through pain of thinking crash will happen "next month" only to be let down. been hearing next month for about the last 8,000 or so dow points lol.

time to start taking advantage of the unprecedented amounts of wealth that has over the last 8 years created and will continue on for quite some time. it's a secular, and it isn't even half over.

surely the ides of march will turn into the ides of april :)

Hugh Jazole said...

Don't get me wrong T. berry, I'm still bearish by most peoples standards. Instead of 20% long, I'm now about 40%, that's madness to bull maniacs. I still think there's a 5% er lurking out there, I was obviously wrong about it being in the first quarter, so maybe April/May? Even with a decent chance of a small correction, things look incredibly strong for 2017. After that I would lighten the load if I were you. The market IS overvalued, but is starting to look very much like the late 90's to me. Take a look at the CAPE ratio from 96-98, very similar territory.

Hugh Jazole said...

VIX 13 whack-a-mole.

Hugh Jazole said...

Templars chant to steel our nerves.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M0d4qM7gCH8