Charts 05-08: Alone

I stumbled across some old pictures I had not seen in a long time, and I am very glad I did not lose them.  In 1997, I came out from Chicago to visit Washington state, to solo-hike the Bailey Traverse in Olympic National Park and finish it with a traverse up and over heavily-glaciated Mt. Olympus.

Here I am at the snout of the Humes Glacier, miles from any trail or people, taking the photo with a timer.  This place is remote.

Humes Glacier terminus

Here's where I slept that night, out on the Hoh Glacier.  At one point I had to climb down into a yawning bergschrund, with a crampon wrapped on my hand, to maneuver myself to get onto the main flow of ice.  I was inside the glacier.  All night this midwesterner could hear the ice creaking and groaning -- moving -- all around.

Hoh Glacier camp

This was probably the single most pure, intensely existential experience of my life, raw adventure in real-time, alone, with tricky life-threatening problems to solve.  I returned to Chicago raving like a lunatic, and set about moving to this place.  Everything else flows from that.  Each time I take my girls to Olympic, I remind them that they would not exist without this most marvelous, perfect place.

In chart-land, we can see the overhead line is about at 1636 late Friday.  I'd like to see it come to a halt there, then sell-off hard beginning this POMO-free Monday.  The "expanded 2008 tape" idea/model would put us at 1602 Monday for our first bounce.

SPX 05-08

That would set us up for an initial low near the Bradley turn in late June, with a very violent August, and a final move down to SPX 1266 in late-September/October immediately after the German elections.  The results of that give us a sharp 5th-wave down, which bottoms on some nugget of hopium about making-do with or without the Germans.

9M

Once we get that out of our system, we are setup for a waterfall collapse in Spring of 2014.

5Y

We then touch the lower wall of the Jaws of Death megaphone in October, 2014, with a currency crisis initiating soon after.  Equities will go up ... not that anyone will care ...

All

I'll be watching the tape very carefully to see how it proceeds, whether slower, faster, or roughly equivalent to the 2007-2009 cycle.  The expanded model (+16%) yields some really interesting price targets, but we have to verify that they are not only reached, but also when we expect them.