Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Charts 05-08: Alone

I stumbled across some old pictures I had not seen in a long time, and I am very glad I did not lose them.  In 1997, I came out from Chicago to visit Washington state, to solo-hike the Bailey Traverse in Olympic National Park and finish it with a traverse up and over heavily-glaciated Mt. Olympus.

Here I am at the snout of the Humes Glacier, miles from any trail or people, taking the photo with a timer.  This place is remote.

Humes Glacier terminus

Here's where I slept that night, out on the Hoh Glacier.  At one point I had to climb down into a yawning bergschrund, with a crampon wrapped on my hand, to maneuver myself to get onto the main flow of ice.  I was inside the glacier.  All night this midwesterner could hear the ice creaking and groaning -- moving -- all around.

Hoh Glacier camp

This was probably the single most pure, intensely existential experience of my life, raw adventure in real-time, alone, with tricky life-threatening problems to solve.  I returned to Chicago raving like a lunatic, and set about moving to this place.  Everything else flows from that.  Each time I take my girls to Olympic, I remind them that they would not exist without this most marvelous, perfect place.

In chart-land, we can see the overhead line is about at 1636 late Friday.  I'd like to see it come to a halt there, then sell-off hard beginning this POMO-free Monday.  The "expanded 2008 tape" idea/model would put us at 1602 Monday for our first bounce.

SPX 05-08

That would set us up for an initial low near the Bradley turn in late June, with a very violent August, and a final move down to SPX 1266 in late-September/October immediately after the German elections.  The results of that give us a sharp 5th-wave down, which bottoms on some nugget of hopium about making-do with or without the Germans.

9M

Once we get that out of our system, we are setup for a waterfall collapse in Spring of 2014.

5Y

We then touch the lower wall of the Jaws of Death megaphone in October, 2014, with a currency crisis initiating soon after.  Equities will go up ... not that anyone will care ...

All

I'll be watching the tape very carefully to see how it proceeds, whether slower, faster, or roughly equivalent to the 2007-2009 cycle.  The expanded model (+16%) yields some really interesting price targets, but we have to verify that they are not only reached, but also when we expect them.

4 comments:

Permabear Doomster said...

It is a VERY alluring scenario...

but I would ask, how do you think this is viable, whilst QE-pomo continues?
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Christian Gustafson said...

I have a pet theory that POMO and shorts will be the only support this market will have.

We DO NOT want this market to go no-bid. We bears want a tradable decline. 2008 remains a picture of sublime technical beauty. I want her back.

treider_ said...

what about the highest today at 1635 close enough to your 1636 ?

Bryan Franco said...

Very inspiring journey! Do you have a count that might make this the fifth wave in a larger third wave that began on New Years? I ask because my work shows that there has been just 1 instance in the 14 that have occured since the S&P was formed in 1927 where there were 3 back-to-back 3-5% declines that ultimately resulted in a top that led to a 20% + decline. In other words, when there were 3 back-to-back 3-5% declines (december, february, april), the market ultimately made at least one more high.