Monday, May 6, 2013

Chart-o-rama: 05-06

For Steve Ludlum, a classic:

Of course, Steve is featured in the KunstlerCast this week, well worth a listen.  I'll play it again on my iPod for my walk in to work tomorrow morning.

Jim Kunstler is the John the Baptist of us Latter-Day Doomers, and we will always be grateful for explaining to us just precisely why the suburbs suck.  He then stuck around to connect the story of suburban waste to peak oil and the exhaustion of our civilization.

IMO, the most important phrase I hear from Jim, and the reason why I know he is fundamentally an ally and a real mensch, is that society and our way of life can and should be an "emergent" phenomenon.  Despite an occasional whiff of sentimental Boomer-ism from Jim, I know that he is fundamentally against the dirigiste approaches that have made such a hash of our living arrangement and our debased modern social relations.  Besides, Jim is a big fan of Mencken, so he'll always get points with me for that.  Who knows, given enough time, Kunstler could become positively Burkean.


Markets looked great today, eating some time off the clock, and giving us new all-time lows in UVXY.  One good 15% day on that hand-grenade will put her right at $5.  Then, she will make headlines.

SPX 05-06

The upper Bollinger on the weekly SPX is right at 1636, so makes a great target for a touch at the end of the week.  There's also an interesting periodic cycle here, in sync with the 2007 high and the 2009 lows.  It comes due next week, after the New Moon and annular eclipse (!!) on Friday.

SPX 10Y Weekly

And a ^VIX daily chart.  11.69 target EOW.

VIX 05-06 daily

Be patient this week, enjoy watching the volatility ETFs bleed just a little more.  My sympathies if you are trapped in one.


Abugarance said...

hi Christian, could you please elaborate on the cycles that you mention? Do you have a go-to source to integrate cycles in a reliable way into your work? Great post and great work. Rgds

Christian Gustafson said...

It's a simple repeating periodic cycle tool in my charting software. I select the weekly candles that include 10/11/2007 and 3/6/2009, and it draws those vertical lines on the chart.

It's interesting, but is it important? I dunno, just throwing it out there.

FWIW, McHugh has one of his phi mate turn dates scheduled for Monday.

Next Monday also has no POMO.

We have a plausibly- completing 5-wave impulse from 1343 -- arguably the best looking 5-wave move up since the 2009 lows. So -- is it a terminating C wave of some sort?

Add in a possible buy signal on the VIX chart (bearish for indexes).

Yeah, so I want this one pretty badly. If we actually do top at 1636, my 16%-larger crash model does some really amazing things, including bounces at 1266, 780, and 666.

treider_ said...

are you still expecting 1636 ?

Christian Gustafson said...

Friday, yes. 3rd of this last ED finishing up today?

Will post charts tonight.