Thursday, January 17, 2019

Bradley turn

A major Bradley turn, scheduled for today.  If this bounce is out of gas, and we are actually building a five-wave move off the October high, then look for the 5th wave to "extend", since the 3rd wave did not.  Is this some sort of diagonal?  the waves are sloppy triplets, and we have overlap of the 1st and 4th waves.  It's no textbook impulse.


We would hit support from the two earlier lows in the first week of March.  This drop would be particularly dispiriting, for its magnitude, but makes a nice buy into June FOMC.

What would force the hand of the Fed to hike one more time, and force a "Lehman moment" for this cycle?

SPX daily

edit:

What if we are now actually in a wave 2 of a much larger diagonal?

SPX daily diagonal to 1810

100 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

As if the political situation in D.C. isn't hot enough tonight, we now have this.

Depriv said...

Right now (with the overlap) the chance for a new top is already higher than the chance for the collapse.

Expanding inverted/perverted triangles do exists, but they are mainly happens within corrections. Even if fall is coming the labels on the chart are most likely wrong.

Target can be said only after the first correction in this rise, but (only a guess) even 3400 might be reachable. But this monster has an accelereting structure, so who knows? Maybe even more, if enough bear will be caught in the storm.

T.Berry said...

2 to remember, stocks usually do best in pres 3rd years & the new bull market just started. as a bonus stocks always go up during gov shutdowns. the low of 2019 is in.


new ath's are coming later in the year.

kevin, almost pulled trigger on qld back in dec but picked up tna instead. small caps has led the new bull so far.

good luck to all in 2019!


Christian Gustafson said...

Added another chart and count. What if the bounce from 2346 is a wave 2 up?

It's retraced just over half now.

Hugh Jazole said...

I'm still thinking we retest the lows. I doubt most people are expecting it. Imo that would be a major buying opportunity for most of 2019. I think the FED will sit tight at the next meeting. It's certainly possible all the bearish action is behind us, but I seriously doubt the market will make it that easy. Is Permabear or anyone else still calling for 1500's in the fall?

Kevin Wilde said...

Nenner cycle turn January 17.

Amrstrong cycle turn January 21, with drop into panic cycle low January 28 week.

Interesting times.

Hugh Jazole said...

$TRIN suggests we're close to a top.

Christian Gustafson said...

Is there a better example of the TINA principle than what $NFLX said in their earnings call yesterday?

4:51 p.m. Ahead of a 2019 where it expects roughly $3B of cash burn, Netflix ended 2018 with $3.79B in cash and (following a Q4 debt offering) $10.36B in long-term debt. Management: "As long as we judge our marginal after-tax cost of debt to be lower than our marginal cost of equity, we'll continue to finance our working capital needs through the high-yield market."

Emphasis added.

So there you have it. One of our most esteemed high-flyer innovators runs the shop on junk bonds.

umdengineer said...

wow, if that's the case Trump now has his leverage

Kevin Wilde said...

Here's something to warm the bears:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QLog6joaA48

Sal said...

I think the trump slump and the trump dump became trump bump again. But more importantly sheriff powell's double barrel blitz of balance sheet reduction and rate hikes fell silent. Balance sheet runoff has been iced due to all the incessant whining.

Looking at Dax it looks like a 1,2 setup where 1 is 2009 to 2015/16 but eurostoxx can go either way as in you can count as 1,2 i ii or a b a,b. Keep in mind though that dax is whole another can of worms if you start including data from before 2009.

dax chart
eurostoxx chart

But back to SnP or even RUT its easy to count any of these wrong.

Click here for ES chart

I think there is overhead supply above which may turn into resistance early next week. Maybe that will mark a of B from bottom.

Randall Beehomes said...

All the fake shit Thursday and Friday and bullgasm shit talk and for what? Lots of support at 2000

Hugh Jazole said...

Muh new bull market.

Randall Beehomes said...

T Berry, keep phone on for my margin calls for you son.

Hugh Jazole said...

How could anyone look at $NYMO last week and NOT see this coming!? Even Caldero was about to give up on us retesting the lows, COME ON! How can some noob who goes by "hugh jazole" see things the "pros" can't? It's because egg heads can't see the forest for the trees, they are so bogged down in details.

T.Berry said...

best start of the year since 1987.

today's pullback no surprise. even in strong bull mkts stocks can't go up every day

Kevin Wilde said...

Interesting how the markets handle Armstrong's panic cycle week next week.

T.Berry said...

and it was another low volume pullback to boot

Kevin Wilde said...

Volume was light on the entire dead cat bounce, bear market rally off the Christmas lows. Nenner call for Jan 17 peak was confirmed by yesterday's sell-off, as was Armstrong Jan 21 turn, and now we get to see just how scary next week's panic week will be.

Sal said...

I think 2703 may not get hit on ES. Perhaps 2676 was it for what could be an 'a' of B. If so hopefully it will pull upto 2359 area.

Logical target downside can go all the way upto 2302 though that would invalidate the b of B theoretically. So may be tad bit higher than previous high.

ES Chart

Sal said...

2659 sheesh

T.Berry said...

nenner called the jan 17th top huh? both the s&p and dow jones are higher today. the dow jones is 205 points higher than the 17th. i'd have to say nenner missed another call. his luck hasn't been to good over the last year.

T.Berry said...
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T.Berry said...
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T.Berry said...

dow jones is now just over 8% off all time record highs.

some bear market huh lol

Kevin Wilde said...

Nenner said cycle turns Jan 17 and would be confirmed on a close for SP below 2650. SP currently 2646. What happens next determines win or loss on that trade.

On intraday chart I'm seeing 5 waves down Tuesday, then 3 step partial recovery rally, with today looking like a completed wave c of ii. If so, all downhill from here.

Sal, I concur with your pattern, though still in question whether we call the expected modest move below the Chritmas lows is a 5th wave, or a B wave. Doesn't matter since we come right back here shortly after.

Next week Armstrong panic cycle week, so bulls take care.

Hugh Jazole said...

Did the market not fall nearly 20% from top to bottom? Close enough to a bear market, and awfully painful for anyone who made margin buys near the top. The bear may be over, but I still think we need to retest the lows. Major inflection point here.

Skeptical said...

Investors Intelligence Bear Percentage is back down to 21% after spiking to around 35%. Not much fear out there... yet. When it spiked above 30% in early 2008, it stayed above 30% for the next 18 months or so.

Randall Beehomes said...

No fear in Dingle Berry here. Yet

Kevin Wilde said...

McClellan Summation at 169. It has to get well above 500 to confirm this is not just a bear market rally, and new highs lay ahead. Rolling over prior to eclipsing 500 confirms we remain in a bear market and headed to new lows.

Defo at an important inflection point.

T.Berry said...


Kevin Wilde said...
. Nenner call for Jan 17 peak was confirmed by yesterday's sell-off,
January 23, 2019 at 4:29 AM



dow jones is much higher today and yesterday than jan 17.

the call was wrong.

T.Berry said...

hugh, we're on the same page in calling for new highs this year : )

Kevin Wilde said...

T.Berry, Nenner said cycles turning negative was Jan 17 and would be CONFIRMED when SP breaks below SP 2651. Thus, so far, is call is looking good. Just as his call that a drop into mid-December would provide a better buy opportunity when stocks were rallying in November turned out to be a great call, while his rally into Jan 17 turned out to be spectacular.

Not that you will ever judge him fairly, since he's in the big bad bear camp, while you're a buy-hold-hope bull.

For those more open minded, I will update when Nenner and/or Armstrong set the next low target date and price-wise.

T.Berry said...

kevin,
per your 1/20 post you claimed nenner was right however the market has continued to go higher.
you never seem to want to admit nenner made a bad call despite numerous posts late last year that proved that he had.

as for buy & hold, yep, it's worked amazingly well. been in since 2011 and the returns have been way better than i would have expected. granted, it has been the greatest bull market in a lifetime.

as for the big bad bear, i can live with the fact it's only 10% below the old all time record highs. just a matter of time before we're back to new ath's. i know you don't like hearing it, but the market has come back 100% of the time. : )

T.Berry said...

s&p up over 5% ytd, i love this bear : )

Kevin Wilde said...

T.Berry, I will judge Nenner - or anyone - fairly, good or bad.

He makes his cycles calls - what comes next - well ahead of time. Then he zones in timing the turns, posting what support or resistance has to be breached to confirm the next cycle turn is underway.

He nailed the SP 2938 top. He nailed one of the November lows, while saying during throughout the rally phases that a better buy point would land in mid-December. He said once the mid-December lows was in to expect a rally into January 17. He twittered this week that a break below SP 2651 would confirm the next cycle turn has begun. In the big picture, he was correct on all of that.

If the SP goes to 2700, 2800, 3,000, then sure he would be deemed wrong on that last call, though so far the SP remains south of 2651.

If the bear resumes, you will be unlikely to see new highs again for a decade, though that's on me, not Nenner (though he does believe we are in a major bear, that Dow 5000 hits sometime around 2021.) I will update when I hear something different, so we can judge fairly.

On the guru front, Armstrong and Nenner are the clear must follow leaders.

Kevin Wilde said...

If others have must follow gurus - who have played the recent troubles well - then I'd like to hear from them.

T.Berry said...
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T.Berry said...

well, s&p is below 2651 so game's on? is there any fine print that will let him out if the s&p goes above that?

so if s&p rallies above 2651 he's wrong--- right? no waffling, it's pretty black & white.

T.Berry said...

Hugh Jazole said...
Did the market not fall nearly 20% from top to bottom?
January 24, 2019 at 7:41 AM



yes, on 12/24 s&p closed 2351.1 (that's a 20.006% drop from the 2940.91 high). however an hour into the next trading day it was above 2351.1 making it the shortest bear market in history. the shortest bear before was in 1990 and that one lasted 3 months.

fast forward to today and the s&p is up over 13% since the bear ended and yes, it is a new bull market. if pre-market holds, the dow will only be 8% under the record highs.

it's probably a good thing for bears that the gov is shutdown otherwise we could be much higher.

Kevin Wilde said...

Nenner will be wrong if SP above 2651 by the time the next cycle turn comes from down to up. That's how one scores trades - from entry to exit.

T.Berry said...

just what i thought kevin, fine print to get an out. not even bothering to ask when the "next cycle" is because that will be spun as well.

so how does one position ones self when following such proclaimed "guru" who calls a peak on a specific day???

bottom line, stocks are considerably higher today than on the day nenner called the peak. january 17 PEAK.



bears must be in hibernation (again). lol


T.Berry said...

Blogger Randall Beehomes said...
T Berry, keep phone on for my margin calls for you son.



randall beegone lol

Randall Beehomes said...

What I miss dingle? You are exactly where u were after the fake news last week. Unimpressive

Christian Gustafson said...

You must never gloat over /ES candles, whatever the color. KEK in his fathomless wisdom punishes sins of pride most severely.

T.Berry said...
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T.Berry said...

Randall Beehomes said...
doom begins tomorrow

January 13, 2019 at 7:11 PM


sp 3% higher since randdoom set in.

keep making calls like this and you'll earn the title of guru. lol

Unknown said...

Bulls are starting to sound like Bitcoin hodlers. Lower highs does not equate to being bullish.

T.Berry said...


unknown, it's gotta be most frustrating for the bears. some have waited 5, 6, 7 and even 8 years for the big bad bear to show up and when it finally did, it only lasted an hour or two. some are still in denial even after watching the market rally 13% since the bear ended.



Kevin Wilde said...

T.Berry, one trades cycles - if one wished to - by selling - or shorting - on a close of SP below 2651. Then one holds that position - cash or short - till Nenner says the next low is in, or offers a higher target. Then one adds up profit or loss to determine if it was a winning or losing trade. Do say 10 of these, then add up net profit or loss, and you get to see if following such an approach works or not.

In the big picture, I told you we would have a discussion whether buy and hold bulls should exit the market or continue to follow the buy and hold plan. I said that discussion would take place at the 200 day moving average for the S&P500. That currently lies at 2741. I do not believe we will hit that this time around, though will do so once we pop to new lows sometime in the next few weeks. So you can relax, as your decision day is a few months away, and my indicators may very well confirm we are in a new bull market by then. Right now those indicators says we are in a major bear, with the next moves something like: SP 2300, then 2750, then 1800, on its way lower. But you can relax till SP hits 2750...

Randall Beehomes said...

Until a new high we are in a confirmed bear. End of story. In real terms market hasn't done dick in decades by the way

Christian Gustafson said...

I added this guy's site to the top of my list of links.

IMO this is a very interesting take on where we are in the matrix.

He posts daily, and sometimes adds intraday updates. He always follows the precise rules of EW -- he is very honest in his outlook.

umdengineer said...

Thanks CG. I have to admit I don't understand Elliot Waves a lot (trying to learn), but this fellow's b wave lines up with another possible government shutdown in a few weeks. If that gets resolved the market recovers only to resume later a sideways / slight downtrend due to the Fed balance sheet.

rotrot said...

CG...a genuine guru at last...clear, concise, and accurate...be well! rotrot

rotrot said...

CG...unfortunately, as time passes you may learn that it was a mistake to post the link to ET's website at this blog...things have already begun___________...sad!

Randall Beehomes said...

Wow those CAT numbers. I'm sure it will all be fine though.

Randall Beehomes said...

Tuff day for Dingle.

Unknown said...

More terrible guidance from huge blue chip companies. I guess the earnings hype for this quarter has turned out to be a farce. What a puddle of mud this country is deteriorating into. Just a matter of time before the Fed caves and screws the little guy by initiating QE4

Randall Beehomes said...

Crickets from the bulltards.

T.Berry said...

rough day indeed randdoom, s&p is only up 5.5% ytd, beemissin'out lol

Randall Beehomes said...

Ooooooo. I like that name. I love arbitrary start dates. How bout since Dec 1?.....Oh. Anyways. Sleep tight Dingle

T.Berry said...

ytd figures are so silly. stocks are within 10% of all time highs, arbitrary, but FACTS. deal with them pandy! lol

sorry you missed the gbmih : (

rotrot said...

"there has never been a better time to be in the us stock market" - T. Berry | September 21, 2018 at 1:25 PM

S&P 500 all-time-high 2940.91 on September 21, 2018...S&P 500 close 2643.85 on January 28, 2019...down 297.06 (-10.1%)

Unknown said...

That is some bad timing that you quoted there, right at the very top lol. Why are permabulls so afraid to admit this country has gone to the toilet and has become a complete failure?

The market's fate is now 100% in the hands of the Federal Reserve at this point. Many blue chip companies have been guiding lower and a recession looks to be here, yet the market still had a big bounce from the lows. It either has to be a bear market rally, or it's investors frontrunning the Fed going back to money printing and zero rates. Neither outcome is bullish. But permabulls will be naive enough to believe QE4 is helping this country because stocks will go up in inflationary terms, even though stocks won't keep up perfectly with inflation and will still be a losing trade.

T.Berry said...

the cumulative inflation rate from 2008 to 2018 was 16.6% (cpi in '08= 215, in '18=251) , the s&p gained 292% over the same period---903 to 2640 (as of today). those owning stocks have far outpaced the inflation rate and are well ahead of the game.

the fed has done a pretty remarkable job managing monetary policy. wonder how those who fought them fared during the last 10 years.

Randall Beehomes said...

Hysterical to use CPI which does hedonic bullshit. Just go back to the way they did CPI in the 1980s and it would be much higher. Unless you live in a box or never need healthcare.

T.Berry said...
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T.Berry said...

just posting facts randall. sounds like it's a touchy subject to you. sorry if your beans & rice went up more. lol

Randall Beehomes said...

Well they have though Im able to buy the huge bag of Thai rice at Costco. I wont be feeding you when things turn ugly.

T.Berry said...

btw, thanks siri!

no worries randall, you need to get out of your bunker more often. lol.

Randall Beehomes said...

I try to see the sun at least once a week. Fed day tomorrow. I will be prepared.

T.Berry said...

you might want to put on some shades, the futures lookin' pretty bright!!!!

T.Berry said...

looks like aapl turned this weeks armstrong panic cycle into a panic buy cycle.

bulls look to be weathering the panic quite well. : )




still ain't seen the worst of this bull lol

rotrot said...

"The current market has rare company - only 3 other times like this in over a century. The other 3 were followed by huge losses (DJIA):
1906-07 - 49% 1929-32 - 89% 2000-02 - 39%"
https://seekingalpha.com/article/102255-stock-market-cycles-part-3-primary-bear-markets

Unknown said...

AAPL, the largest company in the entire world, is down 30% from its all time high. Yikes. A 5% jump on lower adjusted earnings beat is not what I would call bullish. More bear market relief is what it looks like. Another big nasty drop coming this year for stocks, I cant wait to take money from the pollyannish permabulls.

T.Berry said...

dow jones now just 7% under previous all time record highs. markets always come back, just need a bit of patience.

Unknown said...

Welp, this is it folks. The Fed cried uncle. Being either a bear or a bull in stocks will be a losing trade since stocks will not keep up with amount of inflation that will endure. Next will be rate cuts to try and save stocks again, after that will be QE4 where the Fed tries to save everything with printed money.

T.Berry said...
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T.Berry said...

kevin,

any update on armstrongs call for panic cycle this week? or nenners "below 2651"? neither seem to be going the way of their calls.


unknown, this is some bear market. i have a hunch i may like it more than you. lol

randall, look forward to you next doom call. : )

T.Berry said...

btw, hat-tip chairman powell! the fed continue to remain ahead of the curve. 10 years running.



update : dow jones is now just over 6% from all time record highs!

Hugh Jazole said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Kevin Wilde said...

T.Berry, I will update Nenner and Armstrong when I hear something new. Till then, continue to sell the rips into resistance, and get the heck out of dodge when SP hits the 200 day near 2741. I do not expect that to be hit this time around, and a big give back - probable new lows - is likely on deck next. When SP hits 2741 then we will have the big talk. Now, we get to see what big money does following the big news out this week. I suspect buy the rumor - of a dovish FED - turns into sell the fact.

T.Berry said...

thanks kevin. armstrong's panic cycle call for this week was clearly a miss though. unless of course he meant panic buying : )

whats been most impressive is that the dow jones was at 21,xxx just 24 trading days ago and today we're at 25,xxx. some of the buys i made during x-mas week are up well into the double digit range already. and 2019 just starting : )

T.Berry said...

one more question kevin,
did you abandon this call? you really don't think the s&p is going to hit 2300 before 2750 do you? at this point?
corp buybacks are going to be heating up soon.
thanks


Kevin Wilde said...

Right now those indicators says we are in a major bear, with the next moves something like: SP 2300, then 2750, then 1800, on its way lower
January 25, 2019 at 1:17 PM

T.Berry said...

Randall Beehomes said...
Fed day tomorrow. I will be prepared.

January 29, 2019 at 1:54 PM


more like.....

fed day tomorrow. I will be punished. fify!



crickets! :)

Randall Beehomes said...

Not much punishment frankly. I'm not short except for currencies and long bonds. Happy you had a good day.

Unknown said...

Stocks are now required to have low rates and quantitative easing to support their prices. Shame on the Fed for distorting stocks. Hint: If stocks move up 10% to new all time highs, but the CPI moves up 15%, are you really "making money"? Something for the kids to consider.

T.Berry said...

glad to hear randall, just thought being a bear in a bear mkt and making doom calls there would be a chance you'd be short.


unknown, the mkt is going to move up 10% and then some by year end. the fed cannot distort stock prices just provide great monetary policy which they have done for 10+ years. supply & demand determines prices. the us stock market is the most efficient in the world, and currently is the best place to invest. as for cpi, if you listened to chairman powell today, it'll take 9-10 years for it to move up 15% and by then the markets will have at least doubled. besides cpi is hedonic bullsh*t (lol) yes, those long the markets will be making real money.

((
i still believe we're in a bull market and have been for the last 3613 out of 3614 days. we're just over 3% from wearing our dow jones 26k hats : )

Unknown said...

CPI will rise higher than stock prices, even with the adjusted methods the Government uses to plot CPI. A lousy investment indeed being in stocks at this point.

T.Berry said...

unknown, obviously weren't and econ major---lol. keep thinking that and maybe you'll convince yourself as stocks continue to soar higher.


cpi over last 10 years---16% cumulative increase, meanwhile s&p went from 895 to over 2600.

2009 -0.4%
2010 1.6%
2011 3.2%
2012 2.1%
2013 1.5%
2014 1.6%
2015 0.1%
2016 1.3%
2017 2.1%
2018 2.2%

a successful result of exceptional fed monetary policy. some call it "perfect execution"

Randall Beehomes said...

Start at 2000 and not the same story or return from 1563 spy

T.Berry said...

that's why you price average in randall, you win 100% of the time. always has been that way. the only way to stay ahead of the game is owning stocks for the long haul.

i think it's worked pretty well for warren buffet.

it seems the only people who knock how well the stock market has done in the last 10 years has missed the rally. i personally know 2 people who have been out for over 8 years and they don't like talking about the market. you can't ignore great returns : )

Unknown said...

No need to get defensive T. Berry. You're taking this too personally, maybe you're afraid of my truth with your heart full of hope. Sorry, but I'd rather use my brain and call it what it is. Bad times coming ahead. The Fed will ruin anyone not prepared.

Randall Beehomes said...

Dingle,

I'm glad you have a hard on for me as its always nice to meet a fan.

2nd- trotting out dollar cost averaging is so 1990's. Of course for those humping tech stocks towards the top they got even roughly 16 years later. Was the cost of things 16 years later the same? Can I go to the movies for 10 cents and see 2 pictures like in 12 Angry Men? No shit. So this idea that investing is always a wise thing to do or be long is complete bunk. Those that dollar cost averages in the early 30's were looking at ya know 35 years to get even. And that's even friendo, not a gain. What do you think happened to the value of money in that 35 years?

3rd- Just bc someone is bearish doesn't mean they are always bearish. I was happily long in this debasement bull market from 09 to 2013ish. Since then I am happy to trade either side. I will say this, Chrisitan, who is like a son to me, often makes more money from the bull side even though he is a "permabear." That's b/c when push comes to shove, you see things like the PPT and "TARP" and all kinds of other bullshit pulled out to try and desperately hump things a little further. The problem is we are running out of tricks. If we get to 3000 this year I will have missed it for sure. Bulls had a good day today but understand why. Bc it looks like Powell is has the spine of a jellyfish. That doesn't make me hot and bullish. But for some....

T.Berry said...

not defensive unknown, just pointing to the facts. stocks have consistently outperformed the cpi, since 1913----cpi has gone from 9.9 to 250 (increase of 25 times), whereas the dow jones started at 79.51 and is currently 25,000+ (increase of 316 times). 100+ years of history is proof owning stocks for the long haul is a good decision. inflation adjusted over 7%/year returns.

i think the current bull (i'm still calling it a bull market since we're only 6% under the previous ath's) still has 3/4 good years left. i'm sure a bear will follow, but on average (since ww2) they last only 14 months. the last bear lasted minutes that's how strong this bull (and economy) is.

good luck

T.Berry said...

haha randall, sorry.

i applaud those who can trade, always have, it's just not a skill i have. i'm content getting low double digit returns as a long term investor who dollar cost averages. buying the dips has worked remarkably well since 2009. good luck to you

Unknown said...

Past performance is irrelevant to preserving and building wealth. You already know this, you're heart is just getting in the way of your brain. Sorry to tell you this country is at its final stages of failure. The Fed's actions already signal this, that is why they are unable to normalize rates without the stock market crashing. Healthy market, right slick? :)

umdengineer said...

I think Randall the problem is there no longer a free market. It died in 2008.

There is an appearance of a functioning free market, but it is just Kabuki theatre. The Fed created this bull market by conjuring money out of thin air and giving it to banks (directly) and corporations (indirectly, through bank loans) to use for stock buybacks.

It has created problems. It will create even more problems. But the market will be the last place to ever see these problems (I could be wrong).

Powell was trying to get things corrected somewhat, but his recent fold just means he is deep state.

It will take a black swan to crash the market. Those are things by nature you really can't plan except by keeping some of your money out of the market.

I sometimes think these dips are nothing more than artificially created drops to shake down shorts. Look at how dismal hedge funds have been the past few years.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.valuewalk.com/2018/12/hedge-fund-index-worst-financial-crisis/amp/

Those guys are getting taken to the cleaners, and so are their clients. Stock markets don't create wealth, they just transfer it.

The Fed money was pumped into hedge funds while they were printing (indirectly), and now that the Fed has stopped printing (temporarily) they are draining hedge funds (directly via the PPT) to keep the market going. Think short squeezes on steroids.

They just change the players (TARP, QE, Operation Twist) but the game is always the same.

This can go for a few more years and probably has to in order to forestall corporate bond and pension crises. When those come say hello QE4ever or TARP 2.0. Or maybe the geniuses will come up with entirely new BS that has never been seen before - an anti black swan or white swan I guess.

We shall see.

Unknown said...

A white swan would be the Government/Fed persuading all the foreign countries to pour all their money into US assets. We do have the largest military so maybe that's what it will take for persuasion.

umdengineer said...

well it looks like we're going to get Venezuela's oil soon