Wednesday, January 30, 2019

Just for fun

Five waves up from the 2346 low are actually c of 2.  The tape from 2940 to 2603 on the S&P was the closest thing to a five-wave impulse down that we have seen in all of this.



We would, of course, need "an event" to dive back to the 2007 (year) highs.

The lower line at 1332 is the long-term Fed policy channel, would expect them to shovel a fresh load of fake credit-money into the hoppers on that one (June FOMC), because they have no choice.

c of 2 up channel (5 waves)

89 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

What does the Fed see that we don't see? They really want to feign that it's printing time already again?

Buy my mortgage bonds! Purchase my securitized peer-to-peer loans at par!

Christian Gustafson said...

1/2 way back from 2940 -> 1332 is the 2134 level. If it's a zig-zag, the C wave then drops us to 520.

All this by Election Day 2020?

rotrot said...

rotrot said...

From: rotrot
To: TST
Sent: Saturday, October 27, 2018, 12:35:48 PM EDT
Subject: Friday, March 8, 2019...mark it on your calendar...

the bull market that began in 1974 has peaked...Friday, March 8, 2019 is a date you may want to mark on your calendar...

December 19, 2018 at 2:04 PM
https://tinyurl.com/yamvrjso

Christian Gustafson said...

1576 SPX and VIX 80 directly ahead. Good luck, lads.

Randall Beehomes said...

Wait the Dow is down today and of course thats all dingle wants to quote since it was the closest to new highs. Thats ok, he can switch to Nasdaq or Russell for today

T.Berry said...

kevin,
given whats happened this week do you still think 2300 comes before 2750?


Kevin Wilde said...

Right now those indicators says we are in a major bear, with the next moves something like: SP 2300, then 2750, then 1800, on its way lower
January 25, 2019 at 1:17 PM

Unknown said...

More lower guidance from only the largest retailer in the entire world... no recession anywhere in sight, right bulls? Lol. Looks like that cheap money from the Fed is becoming much more of a necessity to support these artificial stock prices. Most of the Bulls will wake up to this farce and reallocate to better investments, some permabulls will deserve to lose their money though :)

Kevin Wilde said...

T.Berry, I do believe 2300 comes before 2750, though either way that is the point where you have a life-defining decision to make. After 2300 I expect 2750 to be hit, but ONLY if we don't hit it now. If we hit it now, then well, sorry...

Sal said...

I was disappointed that ES 2703 didnt amount to anything but 2713 may.. Lets see where this takes us.

ES Chart

I am counting 5 waves from 2011 to 2015 (third) so that makes total 3 from 2009 to 2015. Stoxx and Dax monthly futs are telling us something.. Just not sure what it is. Seems like there are three choices for long term counts.

T.Berry said...

thanks kevin, btw unloaded my tna that i picked up at the end of dec yesterday. hard to pass up 30%+ in less than a month. :)

i'll use that powder (and deploy margin power) if we get anywhere near 2300.

Christian Gustafson said...

Here's our channel, guys.

I think we're on the brink of an historic plunge, several weeks of hellish crash, with only the 2007 (year) highs as support.

Unknown said...

It would be an odd time for a Plunge, but so was December and especially Christmas Eve. A drop to those levels would mean the market is basically telling the Fed they want rate cuts and QE4 now not later.

Sal said...

Cg when you say just for fun you mean this huge channel drop of yours?

Hugh Jazole said...

At least your sticking to your guns CG. I wonder if Permabear is still calling for 1500's by fall. We have a pullback on deck, still not sure if we'll revisit the lows. After that we're headed up. Sorry.

T.Berry said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Randall Beehomes said...

Thank God for our President

T.Berry said...

econ indicators & fundamentals continue to support higher stock prices. todays job numbers & pmi put another nail in the recession bs.

coming off the best january in 32 years, todays follow through is very impressive (granted the econ news helped). the "january effect" is market positive and we're in the 3rd year of a presidential year which is the best year for stocks in a presidents term.

look forward to the pullback.

Kevin Wilde said...

T.Berry, thanks for posting the bull case. However, it has zero predictive power at gauging what comes next. For instance, earnings growth last year was spectacular, yet stocks closed in the red for the year. This time, earnings growth was mediocre, yet January was the best since 1987 (interesting year, 1987, just saying...) Add the two together and you end still in the red. So even if earnings growth continues, why would stocks be higher? The FED, right? Only, if employment growth continues, why would they NOT raise rates and continue QT tightening? If they raise and continue QT then they just outright lied to the markets.

Then we have "what could possibly go wrong with bull case?" That's what we're discussing here, trying to discern the message of the charts. They continue to say a lot can go very wrong. Maybe that opinion will change if stocks continue to rally, though then the discussion will move quickly to years like 1987 and 1999.

The big question is: will we have a blow off into 2020, or a bear collapse?

Unknown said...

The Fed couldn't even get close to normalizing rates before the stock market cried uncle and threw a tantrum. I guess there is not much regarding economic fundamentals when a market is so heavily weighted by Fed trying to go back to where we were just last decade. A recession is imminent going by Amazon's back to back lower guidance. Donald Trump will be replaced by a socialist. The DXY chart is going to get ugly, and holding stocks long term will NE the equivalent to loading up on used toilet paper.

Hugh Jazole said...

* you're * Ugh.

Hugh Jazole said...

"The Fed couldn't even get close to normalizing rates before the stock market cried uncle and threw a tantrum." Exactly! They are FULL OF IT! "Normal" rates will never see the light of day again. We are mired in disinflation and will be for years. I left a comment here within the last month or so, saying that I call BS on their rate normalization program.

Permabear Doomster said...

Hello
I would merely note, it does seem the rate hike cycle is done. Look for a QT cut as a precursor to rate cuts. By definition, both events are mid/long term bearish. The mainstream will try to rally things on both... but short term only.

Eyes on Germany, its a leader to the USA

Christian Gustafson said...

Jacob Riis on the Czechs (in NYC), in How the Other Half Lives:

"He is fond of a glass of beer, and likes to live as well as his means will permit."

"Perhaps the Bohemian quarter is hardly the proper name to give to the colony, for though it has distinct boundaries it is scattered over a wide area on the East Side, in wedge-like streaks that relieve the monotony of the solid German population by their strong contrasts. The two races mingle no more on this side of the Atlantic than on the rugged slopes of the Bohemian mountains; the echoes of the thirty years’ war ring in New York, after two centuries and a half, with as fierce a hatred as the gigantic combat bred among the vanquished Czechs. A chief reason for this is doubtless the complete isolation of the Bohemian immigrant. Several causes operate to bring this about: his singularly harsh and unattractive language, which he can neither easily himself unlearn nor impart to others, his stubborn pride of race, and a popular prejudice which has forced upon him the unjust stigma of a disturber of the public peace and an enemy of organized labor. I greatly mistrust that the Bohemian on our shores is a much-abused man. To his traducer, who casts up anarchism against him, he replies that the last census (1880) shows his people to have the fewest criminals of all in proportion to numbers. In New York a Bohemian criminal is such a rarity that the case of two firebugs of several years ago is remembered with damaging distinctness."

Hugh Jazole said...

"By definition, both events are mid/long term bearish." 2019 included?

Sal said...

CG

If 2716 holds, we might be headed to 2391ish.

ES Chart

T.Berry said...

mkt has that coiled spring feel. i believe we are very close to a major rally at some point. new all time record highs are on the horizon as earnings continue coming in better than expected. the fundamentals continue to look solid.


keep eyes on nas & russell, they're are looking like they want to take over the leadership role the dow has had for a few months. the dow & sp will follow them to the new highs.

Randall Beehomes said...

Best of times Dingle. Buy buy buy...I left some coils on your lawn

T.Berry said...

how's the sidelines feel randall? lol

Randall Beehomes said...

I'm just polishing up some bones I unearthed.

T.Berry said...

if the trend here continues your posting days are numbered randall. seen this movie before. lol

buh-bye

Randall Beehomes said...

Where do I go? I wasn't planning a trip

T.Berry said...

down goes 2716, what's next?

T.Berry said...

nenner's been long vix since 1/22. down 25%

ouch!

hope you didn't follow that call kevin!

Kevin Wilde said...

I will update mr nen when he has something to say on the topic: for now, expecting cycle turn in BA - big plunge after - and AMZN in confirmed downtrend with neg cycle.

Remember, he who laughs last laughs the longest, so I'd take it easy on that gloating.

Tis always about what comes next. I assume you think the next big move is up? I say down. Will let you know what nen thinks when he says.

Unknown said...

T.Berry turning more angry these last few days I noticed. I think he is starting to realize this farce is coming to an end, especially with Amazon's back to back abysmal quarter guidance. A former trillion dollar company is all one needs for a bellweather to this economy.

Never trade with your heart, trade with your brain. I know the Bulls feels obligated to stay long because it's sort of like rooting for your home team and feels patriotic, but all countries fail eventually due to Governments getting too large. If Rome failed, the USA can much more easily fail.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news :)

T.Berry said...

not a gloat kevin. charles nenner tweeted out on 1/22 he was long the vix which on that day closed 20.80 and today it's 15.73. that's a 24.4% loss in 8 days--that's why i said i hope you didn't follow that call! as for armstrong, he didn't fare well either last week. didn't get the panic he was calling for. instead we're getting one wholloping of a rally. no way am i taking their advice but thanks for posting. it's fun to follow them : ) but i'm not laughing!

T.Berry said...

thanks for your concern unknown, but things are going well here---no complaints, no anger & no worries. the us economy is firing on all cylinders (as your president said, best economy ever-lol) so for the foreseeable future the markets are going to be just fine.

T.Berry said...

kevin,

here's a nenner call Feb 9, 2010, 10:54am

"Nenner sees a new major bear market beginning in 2013 that will take both stocks and bonds to new lows"


i see he tweeted on 12/31/2018 the market is going to drop 70%---but didn't say when since he'll probably say the same thing next year lol.


he could be the perma-bear poster child lol

umdengineer said...

"your president"

I take he's not yours T.Berry? Or are you Canadian?

:-)

Unknown said...

" the us economy is firing on all cylinders"

The US economy is about to blow a piston lol. Either that or even worse: become hydrolocked.

T.Berry said...

firing on all cylinders =
100 consecutive months of job growth, more # job openings than # unemployed (first time that's happened in the history of the us), low interest rates, low inflation, record home prices, record corp profits, near record consumer wealth, rising wages, strong dollar,

just a few reasons why the u.s. economy is #1 in the world, thus #1 stock market

Kevin Wilde said...

T.Berry, if you're going to cherry pick a market call from years ago then you have to also post all the others in between, so we can judge on all the calls, and not just the one you want. Like when he called the SP top with a target of 2938 - to the tick. He also said - during rallies in between - there will be a better buy opportunity mid-December. Do you know ANYONE who said to sell SP 2938 and reenter mid-December? Anyone? Sure, his Jan 17 cycle turn has yet to turn into anything - optimum word "yet" - and we await his sell target and date.

I'd rather take market calls from someone with trading skill and experience, than someone who gets their head handed to them on the Oct thru December swoon, then gloats because they got SOME of their money back, with that SOME likely to take another massive hit once this bounce does its next bear corrective thing.

Randall Beehomes said...

Kevin 100% correct. Dingle the worst

T.Berry said...

kevin,
there's plenty of doom calls from nenner since 2013---i just picked one.

as for his top call, never seen that one posted???? not that im doubting you.

as for getting my head handed, lol, not quite---bought the week of x-mas and have already made a years worth of gains in the first 5 weeks of the year (thanks to the 30+% gain from tna which i sold early). i'm in for the long haul and will continue adding on dips. it's worked 100% since 2011/2012.





nenner June 5, 2016
I still look for Dow Jones 5,000. I think the second half of 2016 is going to be a bad situation for stocks, but it’s not going to be the big one. The big one will start the third quarter of 2017
https://thedailycoin.org/2016/06/05/charles-nenner-next-big-war-will-involve-china-dow-5000/

nenner august 19, 2017
“Charles Nenner is screaming to get out before September. Dow going to 5000”
http://deflationland.blogspot.com/2017/08/charts-89-setup-now-for-huge-sell-off.html

nenner feb 11, 2018
" I don’t think we will go back to the highs one more time because the quarterly cycle, and it is a long cycle, did top at the end of last year. The fact is we are totally out of stocks."
https://usawatchdog.com/the-end-of-the-bull-stock-market-buy-gold-charles-nenner/

nenner march 2, 2018
Charles Nenner: "We're Totally Out Of Stocks, What's Coming Is Big"
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-02/charles-nenner-were-totally-out-stocks-whats-coming-big


T.Berry said...

bear market huh? lol

Kevin Wilde said...

I posted here that Nen said target was 2938, as well as the mid-December buy time (for a bounce.) As traders, we trade the swings, not the giant calls that later get updated, though you miss that, since your're not following all the calls, just cherry picking the misses. In the big picture, short term trading aside, he has been in cash since December 2017, and cash was the top performing major asset in 2018. Will update when he makes his next move. BA cycle is about to turn majorly down, though his target is 414, 7 points away from current pricing. Lower lows and lower highs is the hallmark of bear markets, and so far that is the pattern we have. Dissing the calls of the bears, or gloating on up days, does not change the fate the markets have in store for you.

rotrot said...

KW...saw your post at ET's blog...looking forward to the occasion when you advise ET and his readers/posters that two of your guru's are Charles Nenner and Exceptional Bear...

Kevin Wilde said...

Rotrot, easy to play the critic, so why don't you share your expectation for the markets on where we go next and contribute something positive to the debate?

Sal said...

If todays high holds then 2370s could be next.

Sal said...

Running out of waves here
ES Chart

2370s seem so far away.

umdengineer said...

Short term: if another shutdown happens I would expect a downturn. Maybe we revisit the lows depending how bad.

Long term: it tracks the Fed balance sheet, which if Powell pauses as it looks like he's going to then we have a trading range - neither bull nor bear, just volatility as algos run the stops and the PPT BTFDs.

On a sidenote it seems someone(s) in the administration really want to mess things up with China. Looks like the neocons have decided on their next fight. I think Trump wants to strike a deal, but they are keeping his hands tied. This could evolve into a black swan which crashes the market.

They have to keep the dollar petro based. Now that Saudi Arabia is no longer our BFF, they're going after Venezuela now. It's going to be interesting stack up - US plus allies vs China plus allies; a geopolitical mess at its finest.

rotrot said...

"They say there are two sides to everything. But there is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side." ~ Jesse Livermore

T.Berry said...

impressive close, s&p rallies (buying the dip works) 26 points to close positive for the 7th straight week in 2019.

keep eyes on the nas & russell, they are looking strong and could take over the leadership role which will get all indices at new all time record highs.


ytd so far,

russell up 12%
nas up 10%
dow/s&p up 8%

pretty much a years worth of average returns in 7 weeks. remember, 3rd years of presidential terms are the best.

Kevin Wilde said...

The indexes sit today where they did in December 2017. Tis all about what happens next. Any thoughts on that?

T.Berry said...

not exactly concerned about what's happening next as my time horizon is out a little further (as in about 3 years). at some point this year,i believe we'll see the markets once again hitting new all time record highs. i'm sure that comes as no surprise : )

umdengineer said...

The San Fran Fed was floating ideas of more QE

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-02-08/balance-sheet-could-be-in-fed-s-regular-toolkit-daly-suggests

Never ever is an idly word said by the Fed. They are floating this idea (from the liberal doves of course) to prep the public and markets for further QE, as in before a pension crisis hits.

What I wonder however is when they think that crisis will hit? Is it next year? Is it this year? And how exactly does it unfold? Does Illinois go first?

My bet will be is they will test the markets first, see how well a big corporation or state pension failure is being handled and then inject a little bit of QE to stabilize.

Some questions to ask: what are preconditions for starting QE? When the market drops 20%? We know the PPT activates at 20%, but the article above suggests they use it as an ordinary tool. Will that be a 10% drop? I think they got scared by the recent plunge, so probably even a minor drop is sufficient for them.

Next question: what are the postconditions of QE? I.e. when do they turn it off? What would limit how much QE they can do? Erosion of the petro dollar?

When do we have the Minsky moment? And does it happen because of a debt crisis, or because of a currency crisis?

rotrot said...


rotrot | November 12, 2018

During July 2016, I was introduced to an individual with expertise in technical analysis and stock market cycles. After reviewing his work, I discounted his 'forecast'...how could the stock market continue to rally for at least another year and a half? Well we know that it did! As a result, I reached out to the individual. We have since established a sound working relationship. I have been actively following the financial markets for more than two decades...there is no one better than this individual...an absolute master of time and price...the next few years could be interesting...thanks Christian...be well!
_____________________________________________________________________________________

rotrot | November 21, 2018

reference is made to my prior post on November 12, 2018 at 6:09 PM...on July 1, 2018 the referenced individual provided me with a chart that identified the single best time to short the S&P500 during the next several years...the chart also mapped out the BIG picture trends (down and up) expected during the next several years...sometime after the first of the year I will post the 'short the S&P500' date...in the meantime I will ignore the quibbling relative to the daily squiggles and wiggles...see ya!
_____________________________________________________________________________________

reference is made to my prior posts dated November 12 & 21, 2018...four months before the fact the individual forecast the secondary high (best shorting opportunity) would occur on or about November 12...the actual date was November 8, a whole two trading days off...the individual just provided me with an updated DJIA cycles forecast...the next few months (years) will be historic!

January 7, 2019 at 6:00 AM
_____________________________________________________________________________________

Thursday night the 'master of time and price' provided me with an updated cyclic forecast...there are some interesting stock market swings ahead of us...those who elect to go max short at the right time could shut off their computers for a very long time...the next few years will be historic!

Randall Beehomes said...

Just one of many examples or true price changes vs Unicornfartman Dingle.

rom 2007 to 2017 that’s a +20.4% increase in new car prices. Combining the data from the above article and chart, between 2007 and January 2019 new vehicles experienced a whopping +29% increase in their average selling price.

As a real-world shopper, that's how much more cash you have to spend to buy a car today vs a decade ago.

However, according to the BLS, new car prices have only increased by 6.6% over the same time frame(!). In fact, in the BLS' eyes, prices today are exactly the same as they were 5 years ago (2013 vs 2018)

Unknown said...

Look at Wages To Cost Of Living. That has never gotten better over the years, if it did then Trump wouldn't have been elected, and we wouldn't currently be electing socialists into Congress. The Fed's surprising 180 turn last month is a good hint QE4 is coming soon. When QE4 starts, it will not stop until the ultimatum is reached where the dollar must be saved from devaluation due to all the money printing, and rates must be jacked up regardless of how bad the recession is. Fed chair Paul Volcker did this in 1980 when he brought rates above 15%. Can one fathom our current state with 15% rates?

rotrot said...

rotrot said...

From: rotrot
To: TST
Sent: Saturday, October 27, 2018, 12:35:48 PM EDT
Subject: Friday, March 8, 2019...mark it on your calendar...

the bull market that began in 1974 has peaked...Friday, March 8, 2019 is a date you may want to mark on your calendar...

December 19, 2018 at 2:04 PM
https://tinyurl.com/yamvrjso
_______________________________________________

the email to my cohorts was dated October 27, 2018...the post on this blog was dated December 19, 2018...McHugh's next Phi Mate Turn Date is...you guessed it! now ask yourself if there are really cycles in the stock market...not Nenner's BS but real cycles!

rotrot said...


rotrot | February 9, 2019 at 3:48 AM

Thursday night the 'master of time and price' provided me with an updated cyclic forecast...there are some interesting stock market swings ahead of us...those who elect to go max short at the right time could shut off their computers for a very long time...the next few years will be historic!
_____________________________________________________________________________________

it is important to note there is an upcoming pivot date with the same 'signature' as the December 24, 2018 pivot date...the pivot date matches up precisely with the upcoming cycles forecast low... there are three additional pivot dates during 2019 with the same 'signature'...those pivot dates also dovetail nicely with the cycles forecast...the next few months (years) will be historic!

T.Berry said...

T.Berry said...
mkt has that coiled spring feel.
February 4, 2019 at 8:19 AM Delete


boooooooing!


T.Berry said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
T.Berry said...

Randall Beehomes said...
doom begins tomorrow

January 13, 2019 at 7:11 PM



s&p up 154 (6+%) since. +1 to randall doom! :)

Hugh Jazole said...

Calm down T. Berry. You know what happens every time you get yourself worked up like this.

T.Berry said...

lol hugh. been here for the last 1000+ s&p points, plan to be here for the next 1000 :)

look forward to your call for new all time record highs this year!!!!

Hugh Jazole said...

Looks like Caldero passed away.

Randall Beehomes said...

Dingle Berry if we can eek out 2800 we can get back to where we were on Dec 1! Something to focus on for you.

T.Berry said...

"Randall Beehomes said...
Dingle Berry if we can eek out 2800 "

that would put the s&p 204 points above your doom call.

epic randall epic. you are the next nenner! ROFLMAO!


T.Berry said...

Kevin Wilde said...

Right now those indicators says we are in a major bear, with the next moves something like: SP 2300, then 2750, then 1800, on its way lower
January 25, 2019 at 1:17 PM


any update kevin? hopefully the above was just a paper trade bruh

Randall Beehomes said...

No idea which call you are referring to. I didn't even entertain a short bias till 2620. But since you make no calls, you get no credit. Simply shitting on others calls isn't a skill. Nenner a wizard compared to you.

T.Berry said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
T.Berry said...

Randall Beehomes said...
doom begins tomorrow

January 13, 2019 at 7:11 PM

s&p up 200+ since.


one of the most epic deflationland calls of all time.

you-da-man randall. you'll be missed ; )


go back 4+ years and see my calls, one of the few bulls on here. spot-on

T.Berry said...

alling a spade a spade randall, it's called being accountable for your calls. i have always been and one of the few that admit when i'm wrong. some others not so0----always lookng for an angle out. wafflers.

Randall Beehomes said...

I have chunks of guys like you in my stool.

Randall Beehomes said...

Dingle, I'm surprised we closed above 2620. Christian may share with you a possible new count megaphone though you dont deserve it. Ta ta

T.Berry said...

been here for 5+ years, seen plenty of calls. staying in the game till s&p 4000 with or without you bruh


lol

T.Berry said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
T.Berry said...

don't worry randall, we'll get you a participation trophy.

Randall Beehomes said...

Worst month on month retail sales number in 10 years. I'm sure its nothing. I mean it isnt like the consumer is 70% of the economy.

T.Berry said...

pay no attention to the effects of gov shutdown & polar vortex on retail sales.

T.Berry said...

dji now just 5% under all time highs.

s&p, naz & russell all catching up

3rd year presidential term indicator looking good


mkt continues to forcast zero recession.

Christian Gustafson said...

666 + 2.618 x (1576 - 666) = 3048

that where we headed? giant violent megaphone (Jaws of Death) finish?

T.Berry said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
T.Berry said...

thumbs up cg!

remember, 3rd years of presidential terms are the best. in 2017 s&p was up 21% so that's the target. 22% in 2019 puts s&p @ 3057.

today could be the 2nd day this week of hanging 3 c-notes on the dow jones . or more.


gotta love these major bear mkts!

T.Berry said...

s&p is now 118 (4.5%) points above nenners 2651 high

Christian Gustafson said...

You can draw the megaphone from the 2872 and 2940 highs, projects out to ~2990 by early March in the current crazy rally channel. The fibo extension at 3048 would need an overthrow of the expanding wedge bound.

T.Berry said...

i think we're going to get the standard 2-3% pullback once earnings season's over which is coming up soon. we may even see a down week for the market.

Hugh Jazole said...

Put/call ratio the lowest it's been in a while. I would be surprised if we make it through 2780 without a decent pullback.