tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post1065146379664862810..comments2024-02-26T10:14:10.039-08:00Comments on Deflation Land: Bradley turnchristiangustafsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comBlogger100125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-14190623772071210962019-01-30T19:11:29.722-08:002019-01-30T19:11:29.722-08:00well it looks like we're going to get Venezuel...well it looks like we're going to get Venezuela's oil soonumdengineerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07422631565959806456noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-224144881961874602019-01-30T17:45:37.124-08:002019-01-30T17:45:37.124-08:00A white swan would be the Government/Fed persuadin...A white swan would be the Government/Fed persuading all the foreign countries to pour all their money into US assets. We do have the largest military so maybe that's what it will take for persuasion.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13975404730475033430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-17947300286966840142019-01-30T17:19:34.140-08:002019-01-30T17:19:34.140-08:00I think Randall the problem is there no longer a f...I think Randall the problem is there no longer a free market. It died in 2008.<br /><br />There is an appearance of a functioning free market, but it is just Kabuki theatre. The Fed created this bull market by conjuring money out of thin air and giving it to banks (directly) and corporations (indirectly, through bank loans) to use for stock buybacks.<br /><br />It has created problems. It will create even more problems. But the market will be the last place to ever see these problems (I could be wrong).<br /><br />Powell was trying to get things corrected somewhat, but his recent fold just means he is deep state.<br /><br />It will take a black swan to crash the market. Those are things by nature you really can't plan except by keeping some of your money out of the market.<br /><br />I sometimes think these dips are nothing more than artificially created drops to shake down shorts. Look at how dismal hedge funds have been the past few years.<br /><br />https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.valuewalk.com/2018/12/hedge-fund-index-worst-financial-crisis/amp/<br /><br />Those guys are getting taken to the cleaners, and so are their clients. Stock markets don't create wealth, they just transfer it. <br /><br />The Fed money was pumped into hedge funds while they were printing (indirectly), and now that the Fed has stopped printing (temporarily) they are draining hedge funds (directly via the PPT) to keep the market going. Think short squeezes on steroids.<br /><br />They just change the players (TARP, QE, Operation Twist) but the game is always the same.<br /><br />This can go for a few more years and probably has to in order to forestall corporate bond and pension crises. When those come say hello QE4ever or TARP 2.0. Or maybe the geniuses will come up with entirely new BS that has never been seen before - an anti black swan or white swan I guess.<br /><br />We shall see.umdengineerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07422631565959806456noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-69256792078155042622019-01-30T16:57:07.534-08:002019-01-30T16:57:07.534-08:00Past performance is irrelevant to preserving and b...Past performance is irrelevant to preserving and building wealth. You already know this, you're heart is just getting in the way of your brain. Sorry to tell you this country is at its final stages of failure. The Fed's actions already signal this, that is why they are unable to normalize rates without the stock market crashing. Healthy market, right slick? :)Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13975404730475033430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-59312331998549269442019-01-30T16:56:36.499-08:002019-01-30T16:56:36.499-08:00haha randall, sorry.
i applaud those who can tr...haha randall, sorry. <br /><br />i applaud those who can trade, always have, it's just not a skill i have. i'm content getting low double digit returns as a long term investor who dollar cost averages. buying the dips has worked remarkably well since 2009. good luck to youT.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-9839059266982714942019-01-30T16:43:01.910-08:002019-01-30T16:43:01.910-08:00not defensive unknown, just pointing to the facts....not defensive unknown, just pointing to the facts. stocks have consistently outperformed the cpi, since 1913----cpi has gone from 9.9 to 250 (increase of 25 times), whereas the dow jones started at 79.51 and is currently 25,000+ (increase of 316 times). 100+ years of history is proof owning stocks for the long haul is a good decision. inflation adjusted over 7%/year returns. <br /><br /> i think the current bull (i'm still calling it a bull market since we're only 6% under the previous ath's) still has 3/4 good years left. i'm sure a bear will follow, but on average (since ww2) they last only 14 months. the last bear lasted minutes that's how strong this bull (and economy) is. <br /><br />good luckT.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-36016168384024858862019-01-30T16:27:20.379-08:002019-01-30T16:27:20.379-08:00Dingle,
I'm glad you have a hard on for me as...Dingle,<br /><br />I'm glad you have a hard on for me as its always nice to meet a fan. <br /><br />2nd- trotting out dollar cost averaging is so 1990's. Of course for those humping tech stocks towards the top they got even roughly 16 years later. Was the cost of things 16 years later the same? Can I go to the movies for 10 cents and see 2 pictures like in 12 Angry Men? No shit. So this idea that investing is always a wise thing to do or be long is complete bunk. Those that dollar cost averages in the early 30's were looking at ya know 35 years to get even. And that's even friendo, not a gain. What do you think happened to the value of money in that 35 years? <br /><br />3rd- Just bc someone is bearish doesn't mean they are always bearish. I was happily long in this debasement bull market from 09 to 2013ish. Since then I am happy to trade either side. I will say this, Chrisitan, who is like a son to me, often makes more money from the bull side even though he is a "permabear." That's b/c when push comes to shove, you see things like the PPT and "TARP" and all kinds of other bullshit pulled out to try and desperately hump things a little further. The problem is we are running out of tricks. If we get to 3000 this year I will have missed it for sure. Bulls had a good day today but understand why. Bc it looks like Powell is has the spine of a jellyfish. That doesn't make me hot and bullish. But for some....Randall Beehomeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16188649109467629634noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-46194829324950946012019-01-30T15:54:53.547-08:002019-01-30T15:54:53.547-08:00No need to get defensive T. Berry. You're tak...No need to get defensive T. Berry. You're taking this too personally, maybe you're afraid of my truth with your heart full of hope. Sorry, but I'd rather use my brain and call it what it is. Bad times coming ahead. The Fed will ruin anyone not prepared.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13975404730475033430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-60238986054699317542019-01-30T15:46:43.144-08:002019-01-30T15:46:43.144-08:00that's why you price average in randall, you w...that's why you price average in randall, you win 100% of the time. always has been that way. the only way to stay ahead of the game is owning stocks for the long haul. <br /><br />i think it's worked pretty well for warren buffet.<br /><br />it seems the only people who knock how well the stock market has done in the last 10 years has missed the rally. i personally know 2 people who have been out for over 8 years and they don't like talking about the market. you can't ignore great returns : ) T.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-51501724510043439962019-01-30T15:35:34.940-08:002019-01-30T15:35:34.940-08:00Start at 2000 and not the same story or return fro...Start at 2000 and not the same story or return from 1563 spyRandall Beehomeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16188649109467629634noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-31850103249441360442019-01-30T15:32:10.913-08:002019-01-30T15:32:10.913-08:00unknown, obviously weren't and econ major---lo...unknown, obviously weren't and econ major---lol. keep thinking that and maybe you'll convince yourself as stocks continue to soar higher.<br /><br /><br />cpi over last 10 years---16% cumulative increase, meanwhile s&p went from 895 to over 2600.<br /><br />2009 -0.4%<br />2010 1.6%<br />2011 3.2%<br />2012 2.1%<br />2013 1.5%<br />2014 1.6%<br />2015 0.1%<br />2016 1.3%<br />2017 2.1%<br />2018 2.2%<br /><br />a successful result of exceptional fed monetary policy. some call it "perfect execution"<br />T.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-34982142236759003792019-01-30T15:16:59.818-08:002019-01-30T15:16:59.818-08:00CPI will rise higher than stock prices, even with ...CPI will rise higher than stock prices, even with the adjusted methods the Government uses to plot CPI. A lousy investment indeed being in stocks at this point.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13975404730475033430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-54100408443564367342019-01-30T14:59:46.563-08:002019-01-30T14:59:46.563-08:00glad to hear randall, just thought being a bear in...glad to hear randall, just thought being a bear in a bear mkt and making doom calls there would be a chance you'd be short. <br /><br /><br />unknown, the mkt is going to move up 10% and then some by year end. the fed cannot distort stock prices just provide great monetary policy which they have done for 10+ years. supply & demand determines prices. the us stock market is the most efficient in the world, and currently is the best place to invest. as for cpi, if you listened to chairman powell today, it'll take 9-10 years for it to move up 15% and by then the markets will have at least doubled. besides cpi is hedonic bullsh*t (lol) yes, those long the markets will be making real money. <br /><br />((<br />i still believe we're in a bull market and have been for the last 3613 out of 3614 days. we're just over 3% from wearing our dow jones 26k hats : ) T.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-6912204635516137882019-01-30T13:19:50.112-08:002019-01-30T13:19:50.112-08:00Stocks are now required to have low rates and quan...Stocks are now required to have low rates and quantitative easing to support their prices. Shame on the Fed for distorting stocks. Hint: If stocks move up 10% to new all time highs, but the CPI moves up 15%, are you really "making money"? Something for the kids to consider.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13975404730475033430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-68715320190573164712019-01-30T13:16:14.399-08:002019-01-30T13:16:14.399-08:00Not much punishment frankly. I'm not short exc...Not much punishment frankly. I'm not short except for currencies and long bonds. Happy you had a good day. Randall Beehomeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16188649109467629634noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-31352830188579596192019-01-30T13:11:38.682-08:002019-01-30T13:11:38.682-08:00Randall Beehomes said...
Fed day tomorrow. I will ...Randall Beehomes said...<br />Fed day tomorrow. I will be prepared.<br /><br />January 29, 2019 at 1:54 PM<br /><br /><br />more like.....<br /><br />fed day tomorrow. I will be punished. fify! <br /><br /><br /><br />crickets! :) T.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-46475099444515935062019-01-30T12:59:09.692-08:002019-01-30T12:59:09.692-08:00one more question kevin,
did you abandon this call...one more question kevin,<br />did you abandon this call? you really don't think the s&p is going to hit 2300 before 2750 do you? at this point? <br />corp buybacks are going to be heating up soon. <br />thanks<br /><br /><br />Kevin Wilde said...<br /><br />Right now those indicators says we are in a major bear, with the next moves something like: SP 2300, then 2750, then 1800, on its way lower<br />January 25, 2019 at 1:17 PMT.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-7188022577995368322019-01-30T12:55:24.160-08:002019-01-30T12:55:24.160-08:00thanks kevin. armstrong's panic cycle call for...thanks kevin. armstrong's panic cycle call for this week was clearly a miss though. unless of course he meant panic buying : ) <br /><br />whats been most impressive is that the dow jones was at 21,xxx just 24 trading days ago and today we're at 25,xxx. some of the buys i made during x-mas week are up well into the double digit range already. and 2019 just starting : ) T.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-8898581713435304352019-01-30T12:49:22.439-08:002019-01-30T12:49:22.439-08:00T.Berry, I will update Nenner and Armstrong when I...T.Berry, I will update Nenner and Armstrong when I hear something new. Till then, continue to sell the rips into resistance, and get the heck out of dodge when SP hits the 200 day near 2741. I do not expect that to be hit this time around, and a big give back - probable new lows - is likely on deck next. When SP hits 2741 then we will have the big talk. Now, we get to see what big money does following the big news out this week. I suspect buy the rumor - of a dovish FED - turns into sell the fact.Kevinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04698279995158493856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-11215150719820460862019-01-30T11:54:41.288-08:002019-01-30T11:54:41.288-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-39660050032761683412019-01-30T11:47:46.597-08:002019-01-30T11:47:46.597-08:00btw, hat-tip chairman powell! the fed continue to...btw, hat-tip chairman powell! the fed continue to remain ahead of the curve. 10 years running. <br /><br /><br /><br />update : dow jones is now just over 6% from all time record highs! T.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-80711231583339147502019-01-30T11:45:10.846-08:002019-01-30T11:45:10.846-08:00kevin,
any update on armstrongs call for panic cy...kevin,<br /><br />any update on armstrongs call for panic cycle this week? or nenners "below 2651"? neither seem to be going the way of their calls. <br /><br /><br />unknown, this is some bear market. i have a hunch i may like it more than you. lol<br /><br />randall, look forward to you next doom call. : ) T.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-903065625337880652019-01-30T11:44:10.476-08:002019-01-30T11:44:10.476-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.T.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-59479961912290570792019-01-30T11:26:55.261-08:002019-01-30T11:26:55.261-08:00Welp, this is it folks. The Fed cried uncle. Bei...Welp, this is it folks. The Fed cried uncle. Being either a bear or a bull in stocks will be a losing trade since stocks will not keep up with amount of inflation that will endure. Next will be rate cuts to try and save stocks again, after that will be QE4 where the Fed tries to save everything with printed money.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13975404730475033430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547276048038789798.post-54147151771886812312019-01-30T08:40:47.106-08:002019-01-30T08:40:47.106-08:00dow jones now just 7% under previous all time reco...dow jones now just 7% under previous all time record highs. markets always come back, just need a bit of patience. <br /><br />T.Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06984133082818670078noreply@blogger.com