Friday, November 9, 2018

Point of recognition

Just fell out of the c of 2 channel.

please read this - even if you are pleb-tier and can't get my 1934 GA&U edition

Now the candles get scary -- 500 pts down in 2 weeks -- and a formally-declared Bear.  

Here's the general idea, sketch I made a couple of days ago:

S&P 500 sketch

The Fed will NOT hike at the December FOMC, and this will bounce us back up in "B" for a final kissback visit to the rally channel since the 2009 lows.

Then we get a bond event or similar dislocation in January.  Sorry.  The market visits the 1360 area SPX by the March FOMC, for reasons I will explain to you next week.

This weekend I'll be out on Six Ridge in Olympic NP looking for my fellow bears.

also read this


Christian Gustafson said...

Any greater fools still out there, want to own stocks?

RRE is collapsing here in Seattle, by the way, with TONS of shiny-new inventory still coming online. The Emerald City will be a forest of FOR SALE signs by teh Super Bowl.

Hugh Jazole said...

Agree with the Thanksgiving prediction. I would call that a bottom for at least a year though. Don't see the 1360 thing.

Christian Gustafson said...

Hugh -- look @ the long-term chart.

Back to 1929.

Hugh Jazole said...

What happened in 2017?

Kevin Wilde said...

Nenner out again saying rally into TK, then down into mid-Dec, then rally into Jan before bottom falls out.

I still have hope that SP completed minor wave iv of C just now, with one last push to new highs for this rally to come later today and into Monday targeting the 50 day near 2830.

The steepness of the rally suggests this is likely just the A wave, with a pullback in B, before a deeper push into upside resistance in C.

Of course the risk is there that this is all the rally we get and we crash.

I'm expecting today to end well for the bulls...

Christian Gustafson said...


Hugh Jazole said...

Oil dropping this fast is very bearish short term. Long term it's UBER bullish!

Christian Gustafson said...

S&P open @ 2756 Monday?

pb said...

Kevin there is a video on YouTube of Nenner saying the DOW was going to 5000 in March of 2013. I open to hearing anything analysts propose but he’s been saying the same thing for years.

Christian Gustafson said...

Many of us are guilty of being perma-bears; I've been waiting like Godot for this.

And then one day it actually happens.

rotrot said... is dumbfounding to me why Nenner is regarded as an alleged stock market guru...the public record speaks for itself ( that is not enough for you, Nenner offers a FREE TRIAL ( Nenner up on his offer...see for yourself if Nenner's market calls are abysmal...

rotrot said...

"there has never been a better time to be in the us stock market" - T. Berry | September 21, 2018 at 1:25 PM

S&P 500 all-time-high is 2940.91...attained on September 21, 2018

rotrot said...

Nenner's Tweets

Hugh Jazole said...

"it is dumbfounding to me why Nenner is regarded as an alleged stock market guru" Most people are attracted to extremes, they're either super bullish, or super bearish. They're more interested in maintaining their dualistic view of the world, than they are in actually improving their lives.

Kevin Wilde said...

Nenner has a very good track record. Just this year he called the Feb bottom to the day, and said to sell at his SP 2938 target, just 2 points south of the ultimate high. Now we get to see just how good he is, calling for the rally to last into the 3rd week of November, sell-off into mid-December, rally into January, then watch out.

On the Dow 5,000 big picture, he always said, "by 2021, or early 2022." Are we at 2021 already? Maybe wait till then before throwing the guy under the bus?

rotrot said... are the 'cherry picker in chief' say "Nenner has a very good record" is laughable!

rotrot said...

Charles Nenner - Bloomberg | March 6, 2013

"cycles are down into 2017...2018"

Christian Gustafson said...

The rally from mid-December into mid-January is a pause from the Fed. But the S&P is going to have to be a LOT lower to trigger that action from them. It's an Emperor's New Clothes moment, isn't it?

Mid-January gets the Bradley turn and the real panic as recession data accumulate and probably China RRE panics with their New Year. Remember, everyone over there imagines they can sell their worthless unfurnished cement apartment to their neighbor for the Big Money -- pure herdthink ponzi mentality, the most sickening materialism imaginable. And the herd will panic all at once, whatever.

I need to put together the piece arguing about the difficulty and meaning of S&P 500 below the 1360 level. Any analyst making claims for this (Hussman, and I guess, Nenner) has to come to terms with the long-term chart, the big bad boy going back to 1929. I can do that.

Temps in the 20s for me in the high Olympics this weekend. Didn't see any people back in there, but I did see a herd of elk, a grouse, some cougar and bobcat sign, and a dead mole. I enhanced an old down bag with additional 700-fill down a few years ago, making it probably good to 0-10 degrees. I was toasty.

Faustian man needs wild nature to grasp his existence as in his own hands.

Christian Gustafson said...

"Enhanced" means that I hand-cut the threads on each baffle of the bag, stuffed in more down, and hand-sewed it closed.

S&P looking good this morning; last hope of the bulls would be to trigger the inverse head-and-shoulders off the 2710 level this week. If not, it's bearish until we bottom at the next Full Moon over Thanksgiving.

Massive hedge fund redemptions Nov. 15th, right? But buy stocks!

Unknown said...

You have been good at charting waves. I remember you from the Ticker Forums, at least before Denninger became a little wonky and turned his website into a Christie's Fine Art auction. An SP500 down to 2100 by Thanksgiving would spoil a lot of family turkey dinners.

Hugh Jazole said...

Have you seen the show Life Below Zero, CG?

Christian Gustafson said...

No, sir, have not seen.

Thanks, Unknown. An S&P below 2200 on Thanksgiving would be a real special treat for me, that is for certain.

Kevin Wilde said...

fingers crossed on another C rally back into resistance to complete yet another win for Mr. Nenner.

rotrot said...

During July 2016, I was introduced to an individual with expertise in technical analysis and stock market cycles. After reviewing his work, I discounted his 'forecast' could the stock market continue to rally for at least another year and a half? Well we know that it did! As a result, I reached out to the individual. We have since established a sound working relationship. I have been actively following the financial markets for more than two decades...there is no one better than this absolute master of time and price...the next few years could be interesting...thanks well!

Kevin Wilde said...

And who may we ask is this must follow guru?

Christian Gustafson said...

Easy, ladies.

Concentrate on hedge-fund redemptions this week. Can we have a -200 handle day on the S&P?

Christian Gustafson said...

Friendly reminder: at the 2352 level, we are officially in a Bear Market on that index.

Christian Gustafson said...

S&P 500 visualization.

T.Berry said...

nenner long overdue for a win after these zeros.....

nenner June 5, 2016
I still look for Dow Jones 5,000. I think the second half of 2016 is going to be a bad situation for stocks, but it’s not going to be the big one. The big one will start the third quarter of 2017

nenner august 19, 2017
“Charles Nenner is screaming to get out before September. Dow going to 5000”

nenner feb 11, 2018
" I don’t think we will go back to the highs one more time because the quarterly cycle, and it is a long cycle, did top at the end of last year. The fact is we are totally out of stocks."

nenner march 2, 2018
Charles Nenner: "We're Totally Out Of Stocks, What's Coming Is Big"

Kevin Wilde said...

Nenner: Sold December highs, bought the February low, sold SP 2938 high. Bought the November lows, with one week of rally still to go.

All big wins.

Next: sell rally into next week, buy mid-December lows, sell January 2019 highs (expect timing of this to be tightened.

He mentioned inverse and H&S in SP chart. SP 2720ish in the shoulder level, which is where we closed today.

Big calls, like Dow 5000, come with a big timing window, with this one targeting 2020/21.

I have no clue if any of the above will come to pass, though I will be judging him fairly, while even if he's right, I imagine his detractors will post silly comments from years ago. But I don't care about that. All I care about is making money, and Nenner will help you do that if you ride the shorter term swings and the big stuff take care of itself. For too many people the markets are about ego, which is sad.

Kevin Wilde said...

Cutting to the chase:

Ex B is on record that we rally back to near the highs before we crash.

Armstrong says no crash, melt-up coming.

Christian says we melt-down right here.

Nenner says rally into next week, then again into January, after dip in December before we crash.

I say we rally some, then move 30%+ in either a crash or a melt-up, depending on high well we rally here - or not - with current view bears will win this after we test SP 2820+ one more time.

T.Berry can say what he/she says they want, though I imagine they see new highs acoming.

Rotrot? Where do you stand on where we go next?

Judge accordingly, and judge fairly, is all anyone can ask for, and everyone should expect.

What say you?

Christian Gustafson said...

Christian covered his SPY puts today, is looking forward to ii of 3, and then a meltdown.

T.Berry said...

"Nenner: bought the February low sold sp high 2938"

nenner march 2, 2018
Charles Nenner: "We're Totally Out Of Stocks, What's Coming Is Big"

sp was 2691 on mar 2

Kevin Wilde said...

Don't get the apples mixed with the oranges.

Conservative investors would have been well served to be out of the stock market December last year, as Nenner suggested.

More trader types would be well served following Nenner's shorter term cycles.

You can follow Nenner for free on Twitter. I follow him, thus I know what he wrote and when he wrote it. He called the February low to the day. He called the SP 2938 top and missed it by two points. He now says the bottom of last week should lead to a rally into the third week of November. His target for the Dow at 26,200 was hit, though still possible SP target of 2865 might also get hit. Expect a low in mid-December. Followed by one final rally to start 2019, then watch out.

As I said, let's judge these trades fairly as they come in.

Christian Gustafson said...

We're always interested in more ideas here, from the different analysts, good stuff. At some point you have to gather it all up, your ideas, those of others, and act.

If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice.

T.Berry said...

s&p is now down over 90 points since nenners rally call last week. another of his wins lol

Kevin Wilde said...

Er, didn't you add leverage near the highs?

Er, you can't on one hand pan him for selling early in the year, then pan him again for saying a short term bounce was here - which BTW led to significant rally of over 200 SP points.

On the chart front, today's move to new lows looks like a 5th wave to me, which spells big trouble going forward, and likely make Christian's day.

We should see a modest bounce here, somewhere near SP 2760-80ish, in A-B-C fashion, though that would put us smack on the 1929 crash path.

This market needs some really big news to break us out of this death grip, with the charts currently saying to expect news to land on the bad end of the spectrum.

Christian Gustafson said...

Kevin, the inverse H&S (neckline 2815) is now matched by a bearish H&S with a neckline from today's lows.

Which will win? Right-shoulder would be ~2756.

Christian Gustafson said...

Kevin, I think I see your 2760-80ish here. We still have time for "c of 2 up" to play out. The 50% retrace of 2940 -> 2604 is 2772. Then we might get a proper W3 impulse down.

Then, yes, bad stuff. And I think I can see Nenner's DJIA 5K next year, too. We would have to drop out of the long-long-term channel, though, which means squirrel is on the menu again.

Kevin Wilde said...

Christian, I now have today's low as wave i or WAVE 3. Thus the bounce should be wave ii. That's I will be playing if we get an A-B-C staggered rally to the SP 2770 area on the intra-day chart. I had hoped for a larger wave C to end Wave 2, though this weeks clear 5 wave pattern seems to exclude that. The rally from here would have to be spectacular for me to see higher prices than 2770, though we will see what we see, and trade accordingly. Are you planning to aggressively trade this on the short side going forward? (I am, if it ever gives me a chance to get my positions on!)

Skeptical said...

Appreciate everyone's input on here. Trump and Kudlow seem to be watching the stock market even more closely than we are. Not sure there is much they can do short of firing Powell. The market's reactions to their comments on the trade war have a half life of about 30 minutes.

pb said...

Kevin who are you referring to in your statement that Ex B is on record predicting a rally
to new highs?

"Ex B is on record that we rally back to near the highs before we crash."

Kevin Wilde said...

PB, I doubt we get much above SP 2800 on any bounce, though anything is possible, and a rally back to 2900 would create the most destruction as it washes out the bear positions and gets everyone long again smack as the melt-down wave would be expect to start. Anyway, the bulls have to survive the current test before we get any rally at all...

Kevin Wilde said...

Twas a nail-biter, though I believe we just completed the 5th wave of the 5th wave of wave i of a very large Wave 3. Thus we should bounce here to SP 2750-2780. If not, we crash right here. I fully expect to load up on the short side as the expected A-B-C rally unfolds over the next couple of days. Tis a very bearish set-up, with lots of crash potential.

Christian Gustafson said...

I think that was b of 2, with C up to 2772 to follow. 2772 is the 50% retrace of the W1 down to 2604. Look at the drop from 2815, $SPX 5 min candles, Kevin -- it's a zig-zag. It's 3 waves (for now, hehe). So it's b of 2. It also has the same slope as the rally off the 2604 low. I'd argue these are subwaves of the same larger movement.

A five-wave impulse from today's early low to 2772 at the close of Tuesday would be the perfect c up of 2 up.

We hit that resistance, then spicy fresh datas next Weds morning -- Durables, housing, oil -- and begin Armstrong's "panic cycle" into EOM.

Finally we get to see what a proper W3 panic sell down looks like in the new environment.

Kevin Wilde said...

I don't see 3, I see 5 in all time frame intra-day

hourly closing:
1) 2815-2772
2) 2772-2782
3) 2820-2725
4) 2725-2740 (M shape common in wave 4)
5) 2740-2685

That suggests i of Wave 3 has begun.

ii should take us 2750-2780ish

If it truly was a B wave - with rally to SP 2815 the A wave - then we could easily see the SP move into the the 2850 area.

Tis the big question though, since where we go short is held hostage to which pattern it is!

Kevin Wilde said...

Christian, if you believe we have just completed the B wave, with C underway, why only expect a 100 SP point rally? The A wave was 175 point (closing, or 211 intra-day peak to trough.) Isn't C usually similar size to A wave? That would target 2882-2846 zone. No?

Either way, a 5 waver would have me short!

Christian Gustafson said...

It would have to peter out at the .5 retrace, 2772, a weak c of 2, stopped by the trendline through the 2940 and 2815 highs.

The complex, unusual W2 would then make W4 simple, quick, and sharp, presumably into a .gov shutdown.

The Fed then has to save the day by not raising at the December FOMC. S&P back at 2K by then?

Christian Gustafson said...

Kevin, the tell on this leg up will be if it forms as an ending-diagonal. Then you know it is a terminal pattern and very possibly my c of 2.

So a series of five waves with ABC triplet legs will help you plan your future.

Kevin Wilde said...

Well we have 2 waves so far off the lows, which would be a nice place to sit for a while in a completed A wave. Then sideways tomorrow, small dip to 2710, then 5 waves up to complete C of ii. If we rally to SP 2740 today then we would have 5 waves up off the lows. If so, what would you call that wave?

Christian Gustafson said...

Something else, who knows. I only bring up the E-D because it would be a yuge tell if we see it here, over the next 3 TDs.

Kevin Wilde said...

5 wave up off the lows for Dow and SP. Wave i of some kind? Wave A of an ABC? All of wave C and that's all we get?

I say A of ABC.

Christian Gustafson said...

Chop chop chop, an E-D is taking shape ... extreme danger if true

Kevin Wilde said...

What kind of SP numbers would an E-D look like?

Christian Gustafson said...

Here's what I'm proposing, Kevin.

Would have the S&P just over the 50% retrace sometime on Tuesday, 2776?

T.Berry said...

Kevin Wilde said...

Nenner out again saying rally into TK,

November 9, 2018 at 9:28 AM

s&p down 90 on the rally call. ouch!

Kevin Wilde said...

Nenner out this morning: SP rally into 11/26 peak. NAZ bottom 11/21. Still looking for mid-December bottom, rally into year end.

Note when a cycle is up, that does not mean every day will be up. Just saying.

On a personal note, I have today's sell-off a B wave of an A-B-C counter trend rally that still targets the kill zone near SP 2770-2810.

Kevin Wilde said...

And the SP is up since Nenner made his bottom call. Just saying.

Christian Gustafson said...

Wave 2 up could still run through this Friday, and equal wave 1 down on time.

A Bulkowski Big W would be delightful to see here, and would target 2820.

T.Berry said...

atta boy kevin.

now spin this one. LOL

nenner June 5, 2016
I still look for Dow Jones 5,000. I think the second half of 2016 is going to be a bad situation for stocks, but it’s not going to be the big one. The big one will start the third quarter of 2017

Kevin Wilde said...

Dow 5000 by 2020 or early 2021.

Judge him then.

Oh, unless, we hit Dow 5000 this year - or next - then judge him then.

Kevin Wilde said...

Christian, that would make a lovely wave c of 2.

Unfortunately, I just plotted the NAZ close today and it's tracking 1929 perfectly. That says new lows here, another wonder up day, before we keep on sliding.

I'm hoping for the c wave into Nenner's next turn day: November 26.

Amstrong's cycle turn day is November 21. Since the last one was up, the next one should be down (into 2020/) Which suggests cycles and patterns are coming together for something historic.

Hugh Jazole said...


T.Berry said...

tweets from chuck.....

"Charles Nenner
Nov 8.
Dow reached its upside price target of 26200, the S&P can get to 2865.
The cycle, as projected, is now up, short term."

since nov 8th, the s&p has now lost 116 points . another bad call

ouch chuck!

rotrot said...

Charles Nenner @NennerResearch

For now the cycle outlook in US equities is unchanged
The shortterm should be up into the third week of Nov down into mid DEC followed by a year end rally
3:28 AM - 9 Nov 2018

Our outlook for S&P / Nasdaq and Dow is unchanged, calling for a bounce this week, followed by weakness into mid-DEC.
The next top is projected around NOV 26.
12:54 PM - 19 Nov 2018