The weather in western WA will be pretty lousy -- thunderstorms! -- this weekend, so I'm set with reading Murray Rothbard's America's Great Depression. He applies the Austrian analysis of the business cycle to understand the causes of the 1920s credit bubble as well as the extended pain it caused by the various market interventions and policy nonsense in the 1930s. Very relevant book for where we are today.
Proposing here that the wave alternation between waves 2 and 4 is a flat 2 and a sharp, spikey wave 4, which finishes our first larger leg down in the first week of February.
Of course, the bounce from that only forces the Fed to hike again in March. Have a happy Thanksgiving, friends.
|S&P 500 daily|