This may sound ambitious, but we just showed that we can knock off 100 pts of S&P 500 very quickly. Let's see if the Donald John Trump has a China trade deal to announce Sunday night, after the /ES futures open.
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| SPX 5 min - expanded flat wave |
Big picture view is a crash to the über-long-term channel at 1360 this Spring. If we break that channel, then the Fed has truly lost control and it's time to get scarce.
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| SPX daily - Springtime doom edition |
27 comments:
Interested in whether you guys have any experience with or personal opinions of extended lungs. I think it sounds promising.
I dont think we see 2755 ever again. This week.
B wave looks like underway and on track. That sets up nicely for the C wave blast off into the resistance kill zone above SP 2800. Too early to tell how high into that resistance zone we go, though it is likely going to surprise a few people with its strength, to sucker them into thinking the sell phase is over. The rest of this week is likely going to be a big win for the bulls - then watch out below in the weeks ahead.
Rs win and we can get 2820. Let us pray
BORING! Tedious chop until the election charade is over.
Hugh, look at the 13-week bill this morning.
Trump will hold the Congress, pop the markets tomorrow, and then the Fed will raise on Thursday.
And this is an in-between FOMC, with no press conference with spin and comforting lies.
Nenner Watch --
Nenner looking for low today/tomorrow, though only as a trade, and sees big sell-off to follow January rally.
scroll down to see video.
https://usawatchdog.com/deflation-coming-not-inflation-charles-nenner/
Maxine Waters ready to take her place at the head of a committee in DC. Nothing more bullish than that.
"The democrat-leaning news sources will always tout former President Obama, Hillary Clinton and progressive and liberal ideals as the greatest thing since sliced bread while denigrating republicans. At the same time, the republican-leaning news sources place President Trump on a pedestal praising every decision as genius. The republican media touts conservative ideals (even though most republicans no longer believe in fiscal conservatism as evidenced by the obscene Keynesian spending over the last nine years by both parties) while bashing democrats."
Keystone Speculator gets it.
Use limit orders, lads!
The bid/offer on today SPY options is very volatile and does not have your best interest in mind.
nice to see the mid terms uncertainty out of the way.
new all time highs were delayed a bit but they're still coming.
dow jones only 2.5% from new ath's
cashed out of margin positions for a small gain. the first position on 9/24 hurt but after averaging down came out on the plus side. next q i'll wait till just before the 2nd monday of jan before scaling in. its easy money.
We are close
Now that it is over, I can tell you, that today is one of McHugh's phi mate turn dates.
The last one was 10/2.
A Fed hike tomorrow would help.
50 basis points needed to help da savers
I'm hoping we hang in for a rally into Friday's close, to complete the 4 day up, 2 day down, 4 day up A-B-C pattern I've been expecting. Sideways tomorrow would be a perfect set-up for Friday pop to new highs for rally to close out the week. Then watch out below...
Tick tock.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VXV:$VIX&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p87393143776
New highs by Friday?
New highs for rally off the lows - to test the 50 day average.
1929 pattern - also the 2007 topping pattern - saw a 4 day rally off lows to test 20 day ma (A.) 2 day pullback (B.) 4 day rally that eclipses height seen in A wave (C.)
Yesterday was day 2 of that 4. Today should be sideways churn that closes near ysterday's high, with tomorrow a test of 50 day moving average for SP near 2835. That completes A-B-C pre-crash set-up.
If we follow 2007 pattern, this week closes on highs (for week.) Next week is straight down to retest lows (closing on low for week). Then another rally back to 50 day average before we breakdown for real.
If we follow 1929, then straight down after tomorrow.
Semis so far saying to expect a bearish outcome, and not a bullish one - like say 2012 bullish one - though semis chart can change. But so far semis say get out of this market...tomorrow at the latest.
Did the Fed just show their hand?
Inside day candle.
I'll be out on Six Ridge in the Olympics this weekend, probably see some bears there.
Hot off the press:
Nenner: Dow hit our target of 26,200. SP can get to 2865. Cycle up in short term. Will feel more comfortable with the SP 2865 target once Dow gets above 26,300. A break above our targets may lead to test of highs.
(For those that dis him, this guy called the Feb bottom, and SP 2938 top, and now the bottom. Longer term, he expects, December low lead to big bounce into January. Then off to Dow 5000 between then and 2021/22. I'm more bearish than that - in the short and intermediate term - though what will be will be.)
-Kevin
Thank you, Kevin. I appreciate your insights.
Tim Knight managed to capture this video before it came down.
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