Thursday, November 22, 2018

Bearish alt

Probably where we are really headed, is a close in the Friday trading session back at 2630, a big gap down Sunday night, and a 400 pt minor crash in the S&P 500 next week.

In that case, the massive gap at 2630 becomes the target for a rally from mid-January into mid-March, ending with the March FOMC.

The 2900s will be done on the S&P 500, as well as the 2800s and the 2700s.  This then becomes a theme throughout 2019.

There are cheap cheap crash puts available on the SPY if you need to hedge, or, God forbid, speculate on the future.  Good luck to all.

S&P 500 daily

Wednesday, November 21, 2018

Thanksgiving count

Just wanted to post an updated count before we adjourn for the Thanksgiving.

The weather in western WA will be pretty lousy -- thunderstorms! -- this weekend, so I'm set with reading Murray Rothbard's America's Great Depression.  He applies the Austrian analysis of the business cycle to understand the causes of the 1920s credit bubble as well as the extended pain it caused by the various market interventions and policy nonsense in the 1930s.  Very relevant book for where we are today.

Proposing here that the wave alternation between waves 2 and 4 is a flat 2 and a sharp, spikey wave 4, which finishes our first larger leg down in the first week of February.

Of course, the bounce from that only forces the Fed to hike again in March.  Have a happy Thanksgiving, friends.

S&P 500 daily

Friday, November 9, 2018

Point of recognition

Just fell out of the c of 2 channel.

please read this - even if you are pleb-tier and can't get my 1934 GA&U edition

Now the candles get scary -- 500 pts down in 2 weeks -- and a formally-declared Bear.  

Here's the general idea, sketch I made a couple of days ago:

S&P 500 sketch

The Fed will NOT hike at the December FOMC, and this will bounce us back up in "B" for a final kissback visit to the rally channel since the 2009 lows.

Then we get a bond event or similar dislocation in January.  Sorry.  The market visits the 1360 area SPX by the March FOMC, for reasons I will explain to you next week.

This weekend I'll be out on Six Ridge in Olympic NP looking for my fellow bears.

also read this

Saturday, November 3, 2018

Finish up wave 2 this week

We're in the impulsive C up of 2 up, a deceptive expanded flat (B made a new low at 2604 SPX).  The .618 retrace from the 2628 low can have us back at 2820 midweek, possibly as early as Tuesday.

This may sound ambitious, but we just showed that we can knock off 100 pts of S&P 500 very quickly.  Let's see if the Donald John Trump has a China trade deal to announce Sunday night, after the /ES futures open.

SPX 5 min - expanded flat wave

Big picture view is a crash to the ├╝ber-long-term channel at 1360 this Spring.  If we break that channel, then the Fed has truly lost control and it's time to get scarce.

SPX daily - Springtime doom edition