Friday, February 24, 2017

The worst possible situation

Only when you have passed over into chiliastic analysis, can you see the worst outcome that is possible in this world.

In my opinion, this would be complete chaos in Fed monetary policy, including possibly a series of rate hikes and cuts in mad succession, a collapse in confidence and mad panic for hard money that would complete the very-long-term "Jaws of Death" pattern before Thanksgiving.

SPX collapse

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

A large gap down is not out of the question

We have a good setup for an island top here, gapping down overnight on the S&P as low as 2340, bouncing, and continuing south.

UVXY knows something is up.


Wednesday, February 15, 2017

UVXY knows ... we have got to test the Election lows

VIX and the volatility ETFs are screaming halt!  Will the market follow?

Yes, it will.  And the Fed will cut rates in June.

SPX megaphone with Trump throwover

Thursday, February 9, 2017

Blog magic is real

I mentioned Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle's classic cosmic disaster novel Lucifer's Hammer the other day, and what should greet me at my local Value Village last night, but a first edition of the same, with a DJ already protected in vinyl!

Niven and Pournelle, Lucifer's Hammer, 1st ed, Playboy Press, 1977

Abebooks has this at $70 to $100, probably toward the low-end as mine has a couple of chips out of the jacket.  But I paid $2.99, so I am pleased with the exchange.  Bicycle's copy is nicer, but I paid less than he did.

Wedge is looking good up here in the ether -- here's my local count.  Janet speaks a couple of times during RTH next week, could be a good time if she decides to shank the Donald.


And the larger, doom count for 2017:


Saturday, February 4, 2017

Books: Killing time until the next cycle turn

Even while the market bumps along waiting for the next cycle turn window, I'm still busy buying books.  I'm the guy in the pulp disaster novel Lucifer's Hammer who preserves a precious cache of books in his septic tank before Hammerfall, only I'd prefer to skip the tank if I can.

So what's new on the shelves these days?

R.W. Tabor & D.F. Crowder, Routes and Rocks in the
Mt. Challenger Quadrangle
(with map), The Mountaineers, 1968
American Alpine Club (Fred Beckey), Climber's Guide to the Cascade
and Olympic Mountains of Washington
, AAC, 1961

Bob and Ira Spring, Camera Adventuring on
Mr. Rainier
(boxed), Superior Publishing, 1955

Karl M. Herrligkoffer, Nanga Parbat: The Killer Mountain, Knopf, 1954

Colin Fletcher, River: One Man's Journey Down the
Colorado, Source to Sea
, Knopf, 1997

Hiram Bingham, Lost City of the Incas, Folio Society, 2004

James Dickey, Deliverance, Houghton Mifflin, 1970

F. A. Hayek, eds Bartley & Kresge, The Collected Works:
The Trend of Economic Thinking: Essays on Political Economists

 and Economic History, Chicago, 1991

Thorstein Veblen, ed. Max Lerner, The Portable Veblen, Viking, 1950

Michael Lewis, The Money Culture, W.W. Norton, 1991

Alexander Solzhenitsyn et al,  From Under the Rubble,
Little, Brown, 1975

Alexander Solzhenitsyn, Rebuilding Russia: Reflections
and Tentative Proposals
, Farrar, Straus & Giroux, 1991
Oswald Spengler, The Hour of Decision, Part One: Germany
and World-Historical Evolution
, Knopf, 1934 1st ed
Donald R. Dudley, The Romans: 850 B.C.-A.D. 337, Knopf, 1970

Edith Hamilton, The Echo of Greece, W.W. Norton, 1957

Epictetus, Discourses, Fragments, The Encheiridion, Harvard, 1998

Francis Gies, The Knight in History, Harper & Row, 1987

George Ivan Smith, Ghosts of Kampala: The Rise
and Fall of Idi Amin
, St. Martins, NY, 1980

L.H. Whittemore, COP! A Closeup of Violence and Tragedy,
Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1969

Arnold R. Hirsch, Making the Second Ghetto: Race and Housing
in Chicago 1940-1960
, Cambridge UP, 1983

Charles Moore, Daniel H. Burnham: Architect Planner of Cities,
2 vols 1st ed in slipcase, Houghton, Mifflin, 1921

some sci-fi pulp mags

C.A. Marchaj, Sailing Theory and Practice,
revised ed, Dodd, Mead, 1982

Thursday, February 2, 2017

Coupla' weeks

... until the next window for the market to get interesting again.

The next 4 years are going to see so much crazy winning with the Donald Trump.  Ronald Wilson who?  And then 4 more.

Well, here's the plan for 2017 at any rate, sort of a silhouette of Mt. Redoubt in the North Cascades.

SPX 2017 support & resistance & doom