Thursday, February 9, 2017

Blog magic is real

I mentioned Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle's classic cosmic disaster novel Lucifer's Hammer the other day, and what should greet me at my local Value Village last night, but a first edition of the same, with a DJ already protected in vinyl!

Niven and Pournelle, Lucifer's Hammer, 1st ed, Playboy Press, 1977

Abebooks has this at $70 to $100, probably toward the low-end as mine has a couple of chips out of the jacket.  But I paid $2.99, so I am pleased with the exchange.  Bicycle's copy is nicer, but I paid less than he did.

Wedge is looking good up here in the ether -- here's my local count.  Janet speaks a couple of times during RTH next week, could be a good time if she decides to shank the Donald.

SPX 60D

And the larger, doom count for 2017:

SPX 2Y

28 comments:

Cyclone said...

So CG, I assume you've got your septic tank ready...

Hugh Jazole said...

I read an interview with Bannon recently, where he said he wanted negative interest rates. How is he going to get that done?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4186606/Steve-Bannon-obsessed-book-Fourth-Turning.html

Bicycle said...

the how is still up in the air, Hugh, but the interest rate charts still say there is an outside chance we could see -1.75% to -2% rates over the next several years. the charts also say we'd see a following spike to 8-12%...

if the S&P crashes to 800, it will be a lot easier for them to do it... Yellen will be gone... and replaced with the mannequin of their choosing.

Of course, bonds could also crash on the announcement of their tax plan, and we would then never, ever see anything approaching ZIRP or negative rates in our lifetimes. Huge moves are coming in rates, very shortly.... the big question is where they rip first, but they'll ultimately land MUCH higher...and with the US economy a complete wreckage.

Christian Gustafson said...

Yah, the long-term charts of the ^TNX and the ^IRX are important to watch now.

10Y Treasury never did break out above 3% and end the Volcker bond bull. Yields can easily go under 1% now, but you know what that means, of course.

Bannon wanting to borrow ZIRPy $$$ from the future is a bit too self-knowing, like gaming the system with $1T coins.

I don't think reality will grant him that loan.

Hugh Jazole said...

"I don't think reality will grant him that loan." I agree. The ambitious tend to have trouble with reality.

Christian Gustafson said...

Well, that's exactly it, Hugh. Bannon gets it, the long cycle in demographics/Kultur and probably K-wave monetary debt cycles, too.

The plan is a last-ditch push to buy Real Things -- ports, roads, bridges -- before Winter sets in, and to stabilize our population.

It's prepping for the nation-state.

Hugh Jazole said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Hugh Jazole said...

Uh oh.

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/significant-uncertainty-about-u.s.-fiscal-policy-under-trump:-fed's-fischer-459348

TSE said...

Lucifer's Hammer could have a real counterpart...

Earth Under Fire: Humanity's Survival of the Ice Age: https://www.amazon.com/Earth-Under-Fire-Humanitys-Survival/dp/1591430526

"Compelled by his decryption of an ancient warning hidden in zodiac constellation lore, LaViolette worked with information from many scientific sources, including astronomical observations, polar ice core measurements, and other geological data, to confirm that our Galaxy’s core exploded, unleashing a barrage of cosmic rays that arrived near the end of the last ice age. This barrage caused the solar system to become enveloped in a dense nebula, which led to periods of persistent darkness, frigid cold, severe solar storms, searing heat, and mountainous floods that plagued mankind for many generations. Linking his scientific findings to details preserved in ancient myths and monuments, he demonstrates how past civilizations accurately recorded the causes of these cataclysmic events, knowledge of which may be crucial for the human race to survive the next superwave cycle. This information reveals the intelligence and ingenuity of our ancestors who, when faced with extinction, found the means to warn us that the apocalypse that destroyed them could occur once again virtually without warning."

Will a Superwave arrive in 2017?

http://etheric.com/will-superwave-arrive-2017/

The first three days will be the worst since the barrage will be most intense during that period. After that one might venture outside if the radiation intensity is sufficiently low. A geiger counter would come in very handy. Hopefully by that time there will be people around who will have some information on the degree of the radiation hazard. It would also help if you have access to a solar powered home that is off the grid. Be aware that the Sun could become aggravated during the event and could produce excessive flares which could have more lethal effects than the superwave.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-2zwBRa0YhA

Hugh Jazole said...

Is the DJT going to tease the bulls, by running up to the ATH, only to reverse hard?

T.Berry said...

hard to believe we're less than 3% from DJI 21K. given the strength so far this year, 22,500 might look cheap by the year end finish. dji already up over 3.3% and feb not half over. s&p is now a solid 300 pts above the Donald low (which odds favor never seeing again).

we are fortunate to be in this market. only the mid 4th with plenty of good bull years left. dji 40k will come before dust settles.

hugh you need to up your ante, this secular is not even have over.

never going to get tired of seeing new levels never seen before :)

Bicycle said...

2450 by March FOMC then TEOTWAWKI

T.Berry said...

2450 is coming, not sure that quick. it's just a stop on the way to s&p 3,000.

remember most amazing bull mkt in history. this market is march considerably higher for the foreseeable (8+ year) future.


zero reason to sell. hugh don't wait much longer to add. now 307 (13%above) points above the Donald low . good luck anyone hoping to see that again.

ken?

T.Berry said...

whatever happen to jaw of death guy? lol

Bicycle said...

~2450 on S&P would be completion of ABC in jaws of death megaphone that started at the very end of 2014. First target would be in the neighborhood of ~1600, then probably a bounce to reclaim 2000, and then we proceed in C wave crash to ~1000

S&P will rip 100 points over the next month, this will trigger more heavy selling in bonds, the Fed will be forced to chase at March FOMC, far more than most currently realize. They alluded to that today

FOMC = March 15
Ides of March = March 15

Seer warned that harm would come to Caesar no later than Ides of March

Seer (Bicycle) warns that harm will come to bull market no later than Ides of March

On his way to the theater of Pompey--Caesar joked that the Ides of March had come (implying that the prophecy was unfulfilled). He was then killed

Bulls will joke in mid-March at 2450 that the bear jaws of death megaphone prophecy is unfulfilled. We will then crash

Ides of March marks the closing moment of the Roman Republic and transition to the Roman Empire

Ides of March marks the closing of Grand Supercycle Bull Market and transition to our period of the Great Collapse

Hugh Jazole said...

T. Berry I actually hit the SELL button on a trade today. 7+% in about 3 months. Nothing mind-blowing, but I'll take it.

Hugh Jazole said...

Per Caldero, "The last potential bearish count can now be discarded."

Hugh Jazole said...

Fear/Greed index 90, VIX completely crushed. Move along folks, nothing to see here.

Christian Gustafson said...

VIX woke up this morning.

Hugh Jazole said...

Yep, it's waking up now. The futures were a real tease.

Christian Gustafson said...

Negative breadth, VIX/vols off to the races.

Excellent setup for a key reversal day.

Bryan Franco said...

CG. Agree. But would probably still need a new high or retest after a 2-4% move lower, no?

Christian Gustafson said...

I think we go test the Election lows in the next few weeks, then bounce into March opex.

Will post chart on this tonight.

Still sticking with prognostication that the Fed CUTS in June.

Bicycle said...

2450 now a mere ~4.5% away

The Fed thought they had this jawboning thing figured out, but now they have run headlong into a bigger jawbone (Trump) who will continue talking the market up as long and fast as he possibly can. That leaves the Fed with only one instrument and that is to raise the rate

Hugh Jazole said...

VIX SMACKED AGAIN!

Christian Gustafson said...

UVXY KNOWS

UVXY IS THE TRUTH

Bryan Franco said...

For those that look at RSIs... i do think we inched out a slightly higher high on the daily (14). But yes, VXX does portend imminent weakness of some kind.

Bryan Franco said...

People have written about collapsing correlations (most of it Post-Trump). Has anyone realized that this phenomenon hasn't been "stress tested" at all in a Post-Trumpian falling market?