Tuesday, September 15, 2015

Something like this, Bicycle

Bounces are back-tests of old rally channels, and the equity markets essentially front-run the December FOMC in a massive collapse.

SPX 09-15

22 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

First!

My low-tech way of enabling comment notification.

If we kiss back the old rally channel after September open, all the shorts will be cleared from the board, and, well, like that episode of "Three's Company" where Jack Tripper freaks out on muscle relaxants, hilarity ensues.

Bicycle said...

Well we have another break upward of my favored bear running triangle, but it's not a significant break, and its not on any kind of volume at all, so probably just another continuation (sigh).

I'm a bit like Mr. Furley, always leaving the apartment more confused than ever...

Christian Gustafson said...

urk, that should be "11/18" on the 2nd date on the chart.

It's a major Bradley turn and also the release of October's FOMC minutes.

The Fed managers are going to be really really pissed at this point and stern about hiking rates in the December meeting. The Market will respond by by returning to the Nov 2011 lows.

Bicycle said...

We could also very well be in an ascending triangle, giving DJIA 17500-17700 on the break.

Bicycle said...

Something like this

Christian Gustafson said...

Well a test of that resistance is in the 2070 area SPX, say, next week.

Again, probably easy if the Fed kicks the can (as the futures market expects).

Bicycle said...

Fork the Fed?

C.B. said...

WTI jumped a bit but it's all just noise, these are the trendlines that matter.

Will it spike or nosedive out of this?

WTI hasn't closed above its 200-day MA in 13+ months, and the last time it tried toward the end of June it touched it and promptly began a ~2 month skid, losing 40%

Christian Gustafson said...

I'm really interested if we can get through this week and finish up the "wave 2" count by next Wednesday.

See the SPX daily Bollinger Band coming down (@2051 this morning)? Maybe we can even tag that.

And 2030 SPX is the .618 retrace of the drop from 2132 to 1867.

Christian Gustafson said...

If I'm reading Bulkowski right, if we have an ascending triangle here, its target is 2048 SPX.

See his guidelines for measuring and determining targets.

Bicycle said...

Hmmm... on the DJIA I had calculated it as roughly 6% move... which would put SPX at 2100+.

However if that is the pattern... we have already broken north out of it on the DJIA... which I don't really believe... as it has not come on volume. So we may be looking at something else.

Christian Gustafson said...

Your pet index is meaningless!

It's only good for headlines and HFTs!

Bryan Franco said...

That something else would likely be a bull trap. Looking wedgish on some of the other market aggregates too.

Bill Bober said...

"Janet WILL raise."

Christian Gustafson said...

There is always December, sir.

The IT top in the chart I posted is actually next Wednesday.

Bicycle said...

I am speechless that they even leaked the threat of NIRP.

We are in for some bad times ahead, fellows. For them to even let this thought out of their meetings means that their real inflation expectations are deeply, deeply negative.

What an awful mess.

Bryan Franco said...

A mess indeed. And a beautiful tail on the daily chart today. I remain short.

benjoyce said...

Folks, this is the big one! I bought puts a day early. I did not have the patients. My hack job guess is that this will go down to ESZ 1400 by friday/Monday Sept 25/28

Blessed Virgin Mary
3. The Pope's Visit and the Collapse Sept 3rd 2015
www.locutions.org

"The collapse will not come before Pope Francis comes to America but it will happen while he is in America. I deliberately brought the Pope to America, the world’s financial center, to be here when it takes place. I want him to be part of the picture. I want him to be present."

Bill Bober said...

Well, there you have it. There will be no collapse in Sept. Predictions made by religious nutters are the best contrarian indicator there is. What happened to the Shamitah?

Christian Gustafson said...

Best wishes to you on those puts, Ben. I still think we may have one more bounce in the tank -- there is a minor Bradley turn, at least on this model, this Wednesday. My target is then the 1534 SPX area into the big October 9th Bradley turn.

Ben did not make clear which camp he is in, if he appreciates the Catholic Pope, or if he considers him the antichrist Whore of Rome etc etc. Opinions differ on the subject!

We have a quiet Calvinist bias here in Deflation Land, but against the larger swell of outright nihilism in our culture, we tend to leave the Pope alone.

God is a pretty stark figure in our world, and you had better believe He's already got your number.

Bicycle said...

Literally, a lightning strike hit and blew up my neighbor's river birch tree not much more than 10 yards from where I lay my head this morning.

The Lord has plans for us, folks. And remember, the Bishop was playing the game of his life, with Carl Spackler as his caddy, right up until he was smite down by the hand of God... exercise caution out there.

Bicycle said...

Never give up on your dreams