Friday, September 11, 2015

Charts 09-11: A line we need to test

Going into a crucial week, there is an important line overhead we need to test:

SPX 09-11

I'll be out in the bush this weekend hiking 50 miles in the Olympic mountains.  I love this time of year when the tourists clear out and everyone else cuddles up with the television and NFL idiocy.  I'll be out looking for signs of the elk rut in the high country, hungry bears, loose cougars, and the rest, while you stew your brains in running-back statistics, wide-receiver match-ups, and injury reports.  À chacun son goût.

After next week, the next support could be as low as 1380 SPX by early October, no, really.  It depends where you begin to count the "wave failure" and technical top.

We could even test 666 this year -- and why not, if risk truly comes off?  How do you set "reasonable" limits to this after we have witnessed August 24?  But we'll worry about this in late November.

7 comments:

Team Winning said...

'NFL IDIOCY'????.......SACREBLEU CG!!!!

U JUST PISSED OFF 90% OF UR READERS :-))))

THE PROBLEM WITH UR FORECAST (AND MOST OTHERS) IS THAT AFTER THE RECENT SELLOFF MOST OSCILLATORS HAVE MADE MAJOR LOWS (LIKE OCT 2011) THAT IMPLY A RISE UP FOR MONTHS!!!!

HOW DO YOU RECONCILE THAT????

Christian Gustafson said...

October expiry SPY 210 calls are a real bargain, then, at sixteen cents!

Yes, the NFL is a complete waste of time. So are any college athletics beyond the scope and seriousness of women's field hockey.

Bicycle said...

Decision time here

Christian Gustafson said...

Careful here, Mr. Bicycle. The current triangle could very well be a wave 4.

Count 4 waves from the July 20 top. We're right about at the .382 retrace of the dive from 2103 to 1867 -- wave 4 country. Wave 1 in the series lasted about a week.

So, whatever the Fed does, we could have a final sell-off here, lasting about a week, to new lows (1814 SPX?). And after that, a larger degree 2.

Crash puts etc would be quickly incinerated in that sort of bounce.

Bicycle said...

I ain't short yet ;-)

Christian Gustafson said...

You know, Bicycle, we never did back-test the old rally channel.

That would have us @ 2050 SPX next week, an easy task if the Fed punts on Thursday.

Bicycle said...

I am increasingly of the mind that we're gonna dive no matter what the Fed does.

Bulls want a bounce to be able to escape their positions.

Bears want a bounce to get short at higher levels.

Econ data is showing up bad with ZIRP so what does it even matter if they kick the can again...