Tuesday, May 5, 2015

Charts 05-05: Greece is saved?

The meeting of the Eurogroup finance ministers looms next week, where they will evaluate Greece's progress towards restoring the proper growth and the animal spirits, and decide whether to make their next installment of bailout money.  The IMF is first in line to be paid.

Ah the good times

Greece needs the cash.  They have no real economy, they are broke, everyone knows it, it's a matter for extra-innings game-theory at this point.  And I think the shabby treatment of Tsipras last week was the tell on this.  Now that they've sidelined this crazy bomb-thrower, this socialist madman, surely the responsible adults in the room can work something out.

The market can trend mildly down the rest of this week, back to 2080s on the SPX, to set up the final impulsive rally, c of 5 on our ending-diagonal count, that will finally break through the resistance in the 2120 area and reach the upper boundary of the wedge.  Greek salvation gives us the last burst of energy we need to put in a proper top.  This would complete into the next Bradley turn date window on Memorial Day in these (still) United States.

The 4/27 Bradley turn did mark a significant high, which was good for a week.   After Memorial Day, we'll find out if the Greeks have any of bailout money left over from the ECB to make their govvy salaries and pension payouts at the end of the month.  That may be it for them.

Short-term count, we're in "b" of the last 5th up here.

SPX 05-04

Larger count, with a low into FOMC.  A strict technical take on this is that returning to 1820 SPX into FOMC, the Fed could even raise rates, and it would rally the market.  I'm serious.  They could come out with a triumphant statement about how everything is just great now and it's well past time to normalize rates with a 50bps hike.

The confused market would marvel at the sheer huevos of these guys and proceed to squeeze any shorts still holding into absolute despair.  Bullard's meddling last fall (when the 10Y Treasury yield crashed) and the June FOMC would then make nice book-ends for our 3PDH domed-top.

SPX 05-04 1Y

If the VIX keeps bleeding -- low 11's into the Memorial Day break.  Everyone patiently waiting for a fall 2015 crash might not like it if it happens in June and July.  The crash would come on a kissback and failure to re-enter the old rally channel, as charted above.

VIX 05-04

I've been reading Georges Sorel lately, interesting fellow, and he says that it's the optimists and idealists who spill all the blood and fuel the Terror when things don't go as planned.  We pessimists set humble goals based on our knowledge of human nature, and have no interest in utopias.  It's the true believers out there that are genuinely dangerous; they go off the deep-end in a hurry when the real world does not conform to their wishes and start lopping heads.  Krugman to the barricades!


Christian Gustafson said...

First and stuff.

Anonymous said...

"it's the optimists and idealists who spill all the blood and fuel the Terror when things don't go as planned." Amen to that, and there is no shortage of these nuts out there. In their futile attempt to turn man into some kind of "god," they do tremendous damage.

Bryan Franco said...

Don't think RUT will take out ATHs though.

Christian Gustafson said...

Agreed, Bryan. If we have our 5th wave in the SPX ending-diagonal, beginning at about the March 26 low, then we can see that RUT has actually gone lower since then. That's true of the Dow Transports as well.

This divergence could owe to the big-picture need for crude oil to rally back to test the $60 level and keep alive the belief in asset reflation.

When oil crashes again, it will likely be as part of a serious and widely acknowledged (i.e. scary) deflationary episode.

Christian Gustafson said...

No, wait, not sure.

I wouldn't count RUT out just yet. Look at the daily on RUT/IWM since the October lows. We could be in the 4th wave of the larger pattern, with a spike high 5th over a couple of weeks very possible.

Permabear Doomster said...

Hello CG.

A good post.

I do like your scenario of the Fed raising rates on a cycle low.. indeed the market would rally on it.. confusing many.

A near term high of sp'2160/70s would very much be acceptable before a summer drop.

Right now though, NYSE comp' is offering no lower than 10k. equiv' to sp'1900/1875 or so in late summer.

I guess that is pretty close to your Oct' low target of 1820... but its not too important in any case.

So yes, maybe a mid term top.. in late May/early June... and then weakness all the way into Sept/Oct.

From there though of course... we will wildly disagree...

Your Dow 5K or so.. against my 30/40K.

Either scenario... the wave will be one to ride.

Enjoy rest of the week!