Wednesday, May 6, 2015

Charts 05-06: Russell 2000 chart for Bryan

The Elliotticians consult their charts of moon cycles, fibs, and astrological omens on the RUT:

Thus it is written, but I say unto you ...

You're probably right re the high being in on the RUT, Bryan, even while I still expect the S&P 500 to complete its own terminal pattern with a final new high.  There are a couple of interesting details I had not noticed about its chart -- see the notes.

RUT 5Y

20 comments:

Bicycle said...

Dow currently putting in a "new 4" this morning... I am tired of calling new 4's... maybe it's right. Maybe we're rolling over here.

Christian Gustafson said...

4 or 'b of 5'?

And it might not be finished just yet.

Bryan Franco said...

Regarding RUT.. Basically, CG you were looking for more proportion between waves 2 and 4. Also, I'm "fudging" it by thinking the last one of the ABCs in the ending diagonal is actually IT and not part of 3. Why am I "fudging" it? Because "they" rarely make the actual top crystal clean and pretty.

Bryan Franco said...

... but i am not an experienced EW practitioner.

Christian Gustafson said...

So who is?

There's no pedigree, only a good dose of skepticism and patient analysis.

That's why I post fin charts to the interwebs.

Reverend Nihilism said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-causing-bond-yields-spike-122327221.html


Christian Gustafson said...

Oh, do you mean this wave 4, Bicycle?

Note the .382 at 2066.

Evil evil tape if it plays out!

Bicycle said...

Yes that one.

I have so many doubts right now though... it feels like the 200 is the only support left on the DJIA... and we could take that out swiftly if we get that Chinese hand grenade tomorrow morning Christian... and it will all be over... or they could have diffused it... and "China is saved" and there we go on 5 up...

Or is a negative China news read as impetus for more Chinese QE and thus up we go....

The central banks... they have become good at the jawboning.

I feel tomorrow is key.

Christian Gustafson said...

Well, Bicycle, c of 4 wants a (iv) and a (v) to be complete, so that could take us through Friday.

2066 remains the .382 retrace for what we regard as the larger wave 3.

Bicycle said...

So much for China. Please proceed to wave 5 up, if you pass GO, collect $200.

However, if you are German, Go Directly To Jail. Do not pass GO, do not collect €200.

Reverend Nihilism said...

Massive short squeeze here?

Christian Gustafson said...

Or Monday, Reverend.

Depends how you think the Greek crisis will be resolved presently. If the Eurogroup writes the check Monday, I imagine that the markets will be relieved.

We eked out new highs on the S&P 500 during this cycle, but not the DJIA.

Reverend Nihilism said...

Looks like someone knows how Monday is going to go.

Reverend Nihilism said...

Thought this might be of interest to doomer types.

http://antinatalismo.blogspot.com/2015/05/cliodynamics-and-impending-world-crisis.html



Christian Gustafson said...

c of 5 tot SPX 2160, allowing us to complete the ED into Memorial Day?

Per this post and charts.

Bicycle said...

This is a pretty significant breakout now on the DJIA and we could walk the top BB up all day long.

Christian Gustafson said...

Agreed re the Bollinger walk-up, Bicycle. A series of advances and pauses at resistance, to keep us from getting obviously overbought.

Will be pricing June strike puts in two weeks. Until then, enjoy an impulsive c of 5.

Christian Gustafson said...

In Frank H. Knight we trust.

"Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of Risk, from which it has never been properly separated.... The essential fact is that 'risk' means in some cases a quantity susceptible of measurement, while at other times it is something distinctly not of this character; and there are far-reaching and crucial differences in the bearings of the phenomena depending on which of the two is really present and operating.... It will appear that a measurable uncertainty, or 'risk' proper, as we shall use the term, is so far different from an unmeasurable one that it is not in effect an uncertainty at all."

Christian Gustafson said...

The Knightian Uncertainty - Black Swan risk from here would be if the Eurogroup finance ministers decides not to fund the next stage of the Greece bailout on Monday.

Greece would then default on its IMF payment due Tuesday.

And NO ONE would be holding short for it.

Bryan Franco said...

Our latest from HTTrading. Long Japan, short Emerging Markets. A defensive trade that is statistically net short the market.

http://httrading.blogspot.com/