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| UVXY 04-29 daily -- lower Bollinger under $9 |
We're still inside a very plausible channel for an ending-diagonal to end it all. Some more wiggles, more overlap, it will probably make the most sense in retrospect.
This short-term guess would have us bottom again today right into the FOMC minutes, which would not raise short-term rates. The Fed members may continue to warn of such hikes in the future, but they are unlikely to raise today on the heels of this morning's GDP report.
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| SPX 04-29 |
If you're looking for an flashpoint event, it might be the Eurogroup finance ministers' meeting in a couple of weeks, should they decide to stop paying off the Greeks.
It would be nice to have all of our ducks lined-up in a row: the DJIA, SPX, and RUT at new highs and up against a 2-SD daily Bollinger band, comparable lows in the volatility instruments, and a plausibly-complete wave count with a terminal pattern. Then the markets can go into free-fall.
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| SPX 04-29 2Y |
Reader Reverend Nihilism asked about the move in the 10Y Treasury. No breakout just yet, we appear to be at a midpoint in the eternal channel of the 35-year bond bull. Presumably, a scary sell-off in equities bids the 10Y yield under 1%. If bonds sell off along with equities, however, than that would be even scarier.
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| TNX |
20 comments:
And if we actually break down and out of the proposed E-D channel, well, all bets are off.
But it would be much more pleasant if all the waves crested together.
Bored! Dullsville, even after FOMC announcement today.
The tape since Monday, April 27, looks like a triangle on the SPX -- wave (iv) in our count? That would work.
Consolidation before a final push. Chinese retail daytraders for the win!
I wish this deflation would hurry up, my rent just went up 15%.
Yes. Yessir.
Bicycle, it sounds like you are bullish because you are bearish.
Me, too.
Def consolidating for a sharp stab higher.
I think I'm going to have myself put into a medically-induced coma so I can get through the next 8 or 10 days without losing it.
Has anyone else had experience with this?
Get yourself some Imperial Stout or Double IPA.
Yes, I suppose I could induce a near-term coma that will get me through this crisis over at my nearby trauma center.
People are listing houses in the neighborhood these days, claiming proximity to this place as an amenity.
Russell seems done.
No more ATH's for RUT for many, many years.
Wowzers!
http://www.barchart.com/quotes/stocks/$TRIN
Ja, an ABC correction off the Monday high on the SPX looks pretty good here.
Are we just waiting for the low with a divergent RSI now?
My guess is that the spx might be finished too
Yeah, we have a lot of the components of a top now.
The earlier counts and speculative charts I posted here that had us topping on Monday, 4/28, may actually have been right.
We are well out of that pink channel. Top may very well be in.
What is up with copper!?
IMO SPX 1820 by the 5/11 Eurogroup fin min meeting is now possible.
Would need a red close today first.
Bang! There we go.
Let's see if we can get the DJIA on board this time, Bicycle.
Bicycle --
Trace your upper wedge trendline over, towards DJIA 18500, and you'll see it line up well with the May 11 date.
That's when the Eurogroup finance ministers meet and decide whether or not to give the Greeks EUR 7B to pay their bills.
Without it, instant Greek default, and a cliff dive in the markets.
Housing is about to get WHACKED, if rates keep moving up.
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