Tuesday, April 21, 2015

Charts 04-21: Revised ending-diagonal count

Updated count suggests 1820 SPX (by Memorial Day?) as an initial target instead of 1737 or other levels.  Extended, the trendline projects straight to 1266 SPX by July opex.

Notice how this presumed 5th wave up is centered precisely around the lower boundary of the wedge?  Rolling-over will lose this channel and keep going.

Riga?

SPX 04-21

17 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

In the doghouse ATM after I found a plastic-wrapped DVD copy of "Logan's Run" at Value Village and enjoyed it with my kids over the weekend.

It's rated PG, for heaven's sake.

"Jessica 7" is still gorgeous after all these years.

Bicycle said...

Happy Earth Day, perhaps the last Earth Day in which there will be any credit markets left at all on the Earth

cn said...

Very close of the Target

Bryan Franco said...

No closing high. Is there a first for everything? ugh

Christian Gustafson said...

The herd is restless.

Yahoo! Finance is showing the upper daily BB for SPX at 2120.56, with the HOD SPX at 2120.49.

OEX is similar, but actually tagged its Bollinger.

The last time we reached the daily upper Bollinger band, September 2014, we closed just above it (tomorrow?) and then put in a doji reversal candle the next day.

Christian Gustafson said...

Hey! Bryan's got a profile photo.

Probably just guaranteed himself a drone strike once things finally jump off.

Bryan Franco said...

CG - you get my email?

Christian Gustafson said...

Nope.

cgustafson at gmail dot com

T.Berry said...

glad to see 1820 get pushed to may cg. that give some time to raise more cash for the dip. plan to buy if or when s&P gets near 2,000.

not seeing what could cause s&p to dip over 13% (1820) though. earnings have been really good overall and some forward estimates getting raised. with long term horizon, still not seeing any reason to sell.

T.Berry said...

ps. mkt looks like it's on the verge of a significant move up. got to remain patient for pullback

Christian Gustafson said...

We brushed the SPX daily BB yesterday, but we don't have a new closing high.

UVXY has me wondering if this tape needs more time. Its lower BB is already below $9 -- telling us it has further to go before giving us a reliable bottoming signal.

AMZN this morning, good lord.

In terms of the big bearish E-D wedge, we're 25 pts away from actually touching the top of it (2148 SPX area).

2148 remains an interesting target if you think the market's about to be "cut in half", since it's twice the 1074 SPX 2011 low.

Mid-May? Greece timeline? China blow-off? Do things keep cranking until they break, or do the cynics start front-running the actual implosions.

I'm a little disappointed we haven't had any Hindenburg Omen readings lately. There was a cluster of them right before the September 2014 high and subsequent panic.

Christian Gustafson said...

Important to note, too, that the DJIA did not make new ATHs in this cycle.

More time is needed. UVXY and VIX will throw off important signals when we get there.

Yesterday's high on SPX did finally put to bed all of those topping bear counts out there, similar counts to ones we saw early in 2015.

1-2, 1-2 ... yeah right ...

Bryan Franco said...

Perhaps we also need a headfake move above the Nasdaq Composite ATH. Very close.

T.Berry said...

i'm good with 2,400 being the high this year : )

Bicycle said...

Baltimore is finished

T.Berry said...

days away from sell in may crowd ,-though a pretty bad strategy over past 6 years unless you were smart enough to get back in (quick). still patient and waiting for dip to put new cash to work. any pullback around 5% is good. can't see this secular bull slowing down for a while.

Reverend Nihilism said...

Anyone here notice the recent action in the 10yr Treasury?