Saturday, April 18, 2015

Charts 04-17: No bearish break-out just yet

We're still in the wedge, in fact, we're still in a handy channel on the SPX:

SPX 04-17

Did you notice where the VIX peaked on Friday?  Volatilities are telling you the market's got at least another high left in it.  Watch the VIX next week!

VIX 04-17 6M

Larger picture, usual expectation of a market crash.  This one is framed with Bradley turns, and echoes all of the big turns on the way up.

SPX 04-17 4Y

... with a 50% Santa Claus rally that reaches the trendline between the 2000 and 2007 highs.  We just had Easter, and we in Deflation Land are already looking forward to Christmas.

SPX 04-17 all

Hang in there ... we still have not reached the upper daily Bollinger Band on the SPX.  So far this has worked great to keep us patient with all of this.


Christian Gustafson said...


(My usual low-rent way of turning on email alerts for my bare-bones comment board.)

Reverend Nihilism said...

If this Moore chart turns out correct, I would be looking for a BIG correction in the fall/winter. I've noticed historically when there is this big of a ramp out of a dis/deflationary cycle, that's when the real correction occurs. The quick spike in oil prices is usually enough to trigger it.

Permabear Doomster said...


I'm seeing some interesting consensus of a down wave this summer.

Most are talking of the 'elusive 10%' correction, although the irony is that was seen in October.

I would guess we'll break at least another marginal new high. sp'2120/30s... but maybe 2170/80s.

Right now... best downside case looks to be sp'1800s.. but really, that is going to be damn hard.

We'd likely need a real upset for that... a GREXIT at least.. with some ricochet problems.

Have a good week.

Christian Gustafson said...

Doomster, glad to see you getting in the mood. The first decline really will set the tone, no question.

Still want to see that Bollinger touch on the S&P first.

Bryan Franco said...

CG- did you see my email the other day?

Reverend Nihilism said...

UVXY futures blown through the 52 week low, up she goes.