|UVXY 04-29 daily -- lower Bollinger under $9|
We're still inside a very plausible channel for an ending-diagonal to end it all. Some more wiggles, more overlap, it will probably make the most sense in retrospect.
This short-term guess would have us bottom again today right into the FOMC minutes, which would not raise short-term rates. The Fed members may continue to warn of such hikes in the future, but they are unlikely to raise today on the heels of this morning's GDP report.
If you're looking for an flashpoint event, it might be the Eurogroup finance ministers' meeting in a couple of weeks, should they decide to stop paying off the Greeks.
It would be nice to have all of our ducks lined-up in a row: the DJIA, SPX, and RUT at new highs and up against a 2-SD daily Bollinger band, comparable lows in the volatility instruments, and a plausibly-complete wave count with a terminal pattern. Then the markets can go into free-fall.
|SPX 04-29 2Y|
Reader Reverend Nihilism asked about the move in the 10Y Treasury. No breakout just yet, we appear to be at a midpoint in the eternal channel of the 35-year bond bull. Presumably, a scary sell-off in equities bids the 10Y yield under 1%. If bonds sell off along with equities, however, than that would be even scarier.