Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Is this what we are waiting on here?

This would argue in favor of the broadening top scenario, with one more touch up in the ether.

Nikkei
DJIA
SPX

Monday, September 29, 2014

Point of recognition: (iii) of 3 today?

At 1.618x wave (i) of 3, I believe it would target 1933 SPX.  And to think I ran into both a bear and a real, live, red-in-tooth-and-claw cougar on the trail in the North Cascades this weekend.

Good luck out there, it's raining anvils.

Not investment advice

Friday, September 26, 2014

Charts 09-26 a.m.: Channel nip-n-tuck

I have us in (ii) of 3 this morning.  If we can stay within the channel, it can take us to the 200 DMA SPX in time for the October Full Moon.

Looking forward to my hiking trip this weekend.  Plan is to sleep in a simple bivy sack at about 7000' on top of Devil's Dome in the North Cascades.  Fall comes quickly at this latitude -- we've lost over 90 minutes of daylight over the past month -- so you need to travel light and fast to make your miles (~45 this weekend) this time of year.  I'll post some photos Sunday night while checking in on the /ES futures.

SPX 09-26 a.m.

Thursday, September 25, 2014

... which would put us in a wave 3 down

Something like this?  This sets us up for -- at long last! -- a visit to the 200 DMA SPX in  two weeks.  The market, she's looking kinda shaky these days.

SPX 09-25 a.m.

Note the alternation on the proposed 2-4 waves -- a sharp wave 2 back up, compared to a meandering, lazy 4 late next week.

I've got a rare shore leave for an overnight hike this weekend, so I'll be out enjoying the larches on the Devil's Dome loop trail in the Pasayten Wilderness. 

Monday, September 22, 2014

The bearish count from here

Last week my sister was in town from upstate New York, so I took her up Sahale Arm above Cascade Pass.  We had a nice day out in the Cascades.  You can see that the blueberries are just starting to get their fall color.

looking south over Sahale Arm, North Cascades NP

First order of business this week is to get back to 1978 SPX for a bounce; then we can reject off the old channel in a few days.  This will give us a stealth wave 1 off Friday's high.

SPX 09-22
SPX 09-22 3PDH

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

SPY option bets and the case for SPX 2050

There is an interesting stand-off in the October SPY options.  On one side, we can see some very large and very bearish bets (put options).

SPY October 2014 options

On the other, we see a surprisingly large number of SPY 205 calls.  So who is right?

The October 8th turn window -- Bradley turn, full moon -- looms large for some kind of turn.  Up until now I've been thinking of it mainly as a low, like it was in 2008.

What makes it interesting as a top is that 10/8 lands precisely on this 2050 SPX level.  There are E-W wave considerations as well, for the larger move up from SPX 1737.

It also works with the dual-nested 3PDH patterns, which eventually wants to bring us back to SPX 1074.  See the thick orange line on the chart:

SPX 2050 October 8th turn and 3PDH

There are big options bets in place for October.  One of the two camps is probably right.

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Is this our long-lost 5th wave?

We have been waiting patiently for the complement to the 40-handle minor W1 move from 1904 to 1944 on the SPX, which took place over about 1.5 days.

This morning looks impulsive, and a similar W5 here would time well for a new high right into tomorrow's FOMC.  The overall shape up here is a classic broadening-top (megaphone).

After that?  The 200 DMA on the SPX lines up nicely with an early-October cycle-low (Bradley, Full Moon etc) turn.

GLTA you crazy kids.

SPX 09-16 a.m.

Thursday, September 11, 2014

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Charts 09-10: FOMC lining-up well for a top

The larger channel defined by the 2-4 trendline here has its center right at SPX 2023 at 2:00 PM on FOMC day next week, which would work well with W1-W5 similarity and the daily Bollingers on the S&P.  Upward chop until then.

SPX 09-10

The lower Bollinger on the UVXY vol ETF bottomed at 18 last week and has come in quite a bit to just over 21.  I would love to see VIX die into the wait for FOMC next week and to pick up UVXY under $22.

Sunday, September 7, 2014

Charts 09-07: Dull week ahead

If wave (i) was 40 points up from 1904, wave (v) would be looking for 2030 SPX here.  There is a larger top trendline that reaches 2030 maybe this Friday or next Monday.  

So, a week for picking up nickels before the steamroller parade.  Dullsville until FOMC gets a little closer. 

Daily Bollingers and the timing for an (eventual) dive to the 200 DMA SPX also make sense here.

The whole thing makes for a nice head & shoulders top, of much larger 3PDH patterns, all with a single, wonderful, violent conclusion.

And I still say the Fed bumps rates in January.

SPX 09-07

Friday, September 5, 2014

Wednesday, September 3, 2014

Charts 09-01

Favoring the ending-diagonal scenario from early this past weekend.  Bryan's model indicates that we could still have one more high after an initial large drop back to the 200 DMA.  McHugh has some similar ideas in his charts and analysis in his newsletter.  A bounce off the 200 will certainly be a good bounce to ride.

Yesterday's dip did something important -- it went just deep enough to establish a clear trendline between waves 2 and 4 of the larger structure.  SPX 1994 is significant, too, because adding 40 pts to it (wave 1 from 1904 to 1944), gives us 2034 SPX as a target for W5.

Draghi probably disappoints tomorrow, but not enough to crash the markets just yet.  The conventional market wisdom from the financial media will then shift to ask what the Fed has to say in two weeks.  

SPX 09-01

Can VIX droop down to the low 10s?  This would be an awful 2 weeks of a market drifting slowly upward in this range.

VIX 09-01