Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Is this what we are waiting on here?

This would argue in favor of the broadening top scenario, with one more touch up in the ether.

Nikkei
DJIA
SPX

20 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

I swear one of these mornings we are going to wake up to a 30% dislocation in the Yen, and it will fuel panic and horror instead of the fun carry trade good times. But not yet.

Bicycle said...

Yes I agree....

The Hong Kong situation has the potential to tip the Nikkei over on its head. China will not allow the current open elections to continue, and as soon as the west puts up Russia-style sanctions on them over this, the Chinese government will hammer Japan will all economic weapons in its arsenal, and by proxy, us.

We have a quickly developing Smoot-Hawley kind of situation here over Russia and China. It could be argued that the old Russians and the Chinese have been planning this for decades and it seriously makes me wonder about the old insane nonsense from the tinfoil-hat types that the '91 coup and break up of the USSR was all a Commie/KGB ops to lull the US into complacency after they couldn't keep up with Reagan's defense spending.

Hong Kong was so predictable, yet it is going to turn into a complete Achilles' heel for us. This is not going to be some kind of Senkaku-islands little spat. If this country had any kind of a good intelligence agencies they never would have let us sell so many T-bills to the East.

Phat Repat said...

It ain't over yet, but it sure is getting ugly. These could just be end of month shenanigans so the close will tell all.

1983.03/1986.84 using current data to end bear/stop loss.

And, agree with what Bicycle said; quite nasty if it plays out so.

Bicycle said...

HK / US Forex has a descending triangle...

And zooming it out...

Phat Repat said...

Of course, one might consider that having the reserve currency, and the abuses of such privilege, are also major factors of our current situation.

Ultimately, that which can't be supported, won't be.

Bicycle said...

Uhm... crude oil... dafuq?

Bicycle said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Bicycle said...

The WTI crude oil pennant going back to the crash is busted... unless its headfaking under before a huge ramp...

PIMCO unwinding any Gross oil positions?

US Shale is gonna start to be shut in. Good night lights out!!!

Phat Repat said...

Wild day! Looks like bears have survived, for now. Values with current data are now 1984.04/1987.25. Hmmmm...

Commodities; that was ugly! Had a nice 56% profit on USO options that got wiped out in short order leading to -4% loss. My turn in the barrel. ;-)

Phat Repat said...

And now our first case of Ebola. We know how much the markets like uncertainty. Limit down tomorrow?

Bicycle said...

Clear air to 16700 on the Dow right now. At that point we're going to find out if we're getting one more bounce. Otherwise...

Bicycle said...

Hey, look at that, the Karl Denninger posted up the "Here it Comes" Khan video today! And it looks like he still has his DJIA 2126.66 and SPX 210.23 targets in his header graphic. That sounds about right.

Phat Repat said...

Numbers shaping up nicely. With current data we have: 1987.42/1990.63 with a T1 of 1894.47 and T2 of 1876.20. I'll take it.

Bryan Franco said...

By closing below 1951, we officially have a 3%+ "correction". That means that the next all-time closing highs (assuming they do not follow the same sequence of dips 5%+, 3-5%, 3-5% that led up to the last ATH) along the way, become candidate all time closing highs that can lead to 20% + declines in the S&P 500. Follow that???

Bryan Franco said...

The only trailing sequence of 3-5 and 5%+ of declines that occur immediately before an ATH that has never led to a 20% + decline from said ATH is the following (5% +, 3-5%, 3-5%). That exact sequence led up to the last ATH. If we were to make a new ATH from here, the trailing sequence would become 3-5, 3-5, 3-5. That is eligible for a top. So are six others that are eligible for a top. There are (2^3 = 8 such sequences).

Phat Repat said...

Bryan, that's great. But what does it all mean? Numbers in layman's terms. ;-)

Bryan Franco said...

It means that according to the conditions of this study, we still need another all time closing high before we can decline more than 20% from our last all time closing high.

pb said...

Christian

Any comments on today's decline??

Thanks

Phat Repat said...

Okay, and how reliable is that study compared to the past? And what numbers are we looking at? Would be nice to see what levels you're talking about, numerically.

Christian Gustafson said...

Hi pb.

I just posted an updated count.